260723 Afternoon Session Analysis
26 July 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
EUR extended its losses due to recession fear on worse economic data.
European dollar (EUR), which was widely traded by global investors, slumped after the recent economic data disappointed the investors and raised the market recession fear. According to the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, the Germany Ifo Business Climate Index decreased to 87.3 from 88.6, below the market forecast of 88.0. Besides that, the recent PMI data released by all European country included French, Germany, and European has disappointed investors. These PMI data from each sector and each country were below the previous market forecast, which represented the sign of slowing down in the entire Europe’s manufacturing sector. Also, it is noteworthy to highlight that the Germany and French are both the largest countries in Europe but both country’s economic conditions were underperformed, which made investors lost their confidence toward the prospect of Europe’s economy. These data would probably cause shifting stances amongst ECB’s hawkish members, but market participants still expect European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates in the coming Thursday. Although inflation has decreased, but it is still remains above the target of 2%. As of writing, EUR/USD dropped -0.05% to 1.1045.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices dropped -0.34% to $79.30 per barrel due to the API weekly crude oil stocks has increased and above the market forecast. Besides, gold prices dropped -0.05% to $1963.80 per troy amid the strengthening of US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
(27th)
02:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
(27th)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Event | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:00 | USD – Building Permits | 1.496M | 1.440M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jun) | 763K | 727K | – |
| 22:30 | USD – Crude Oil Inventories | -0.708M | -2.400M | – |
| 02:00
(27th) |
USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.50% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher after it breakout the previous resistance level at 100.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 101.55.
Resistance level: 101.55, 102.35
Support level: 100.80, 99.80
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2835. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3000.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3180
Support level: 1.2835, 1.2670
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1185. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1010.
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1010, 1.0835
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 141.90. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 141.90, 142.90
Support level: 140.25, 138.70
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while testing the resistance level at 0.6785 MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 0.6785, 0.6880
Support level: 0.6695, 0.6595
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.6160. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6280.
Resistance level: 0.6280, 0.6380
Support level: 0.6160, 0.6055
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded flat above the support level at 1.3110. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3295
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3110, 1.2975
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8710. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 0.8710, 0.8855
Support level: 0.8545, 0.8360
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 77.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 79.70.
Resistance level: 79.70, 82.55
Support level: 77.25, 73.75
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1971.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1940.20.
Resistance level: 1971.40, 2003.60
Support level: 1940.20, 1910.80
260723 Morning Session Analysis
26 July 2023 Morning Session Analysis
US dollar muted ahead of Fed’s interest rate decision.
The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, failed to extend its gains yesterday as the market participant remained cautious ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. Prior to now, the country’s currency managed to rebound from a 15-month low as there were some signs of remarkable resilience in the U.S. economy and ongoing weakness in Europe. But now, a majority of economists polled by Reuters now anticipate that Wednesday’s rate increase will be the last one in the current tightening cycle by the central bank. While the likelihood of a rate hike is largely factored into the markets, the uncertainty remains regarding the bank’s future signals, especially since U.S. inflation continues to trend above the annual target range set by the Fed. With that, there was no reason to rule out the possibility that the Fed will stick to its plan for at least one more rate hike this year following the Thursday move. On the other hand, the U.S. Consumer Confidence for the month of July reached a two-year high, supported by a tight labor market and easing inflationary pressures. However, it failed to spur the dollar index as the market participants continue to harbor fears of a potential recession following a series of rate hikes by Fed. As of writing, the dollar index dropped -0.07% to 101.30.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices spiked by 0.51% to $79.40 per barrel as a news reported that the China will step up its economic policy adjustments soon. Besides, gold prices edged up by 0.02% to $1964.50 per troy ounce amid the weakness of dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
(27th)
02:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
(27th)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:00 | USD – Building Permits | 1.496M | 1.440M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jun) | 763K | 727K | – |
| 22:30 | USD – Crude Oil Inventories | -0.708M | -2.400M | – |
| 02:00
(27th) |
USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.50% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 100.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 101.60.
Resistance level: 101.60, 103.00
Support level: 100.65, 99.40
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2875. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2875, 1.2970
Support level: 1.2765, 1.2605
EURUSD, Daily: was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1065. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0960.
Resistance level: 1.1065, 1.1155
Support level: 1.0960, 1.0850
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 141.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level.
Resistance level: 141.60, 143.90
Support level: 139.00, 136.35
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6785, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6565
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.6150. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6455
Support level: 0.6150, 0.6040
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3175. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3330
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3065
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.8670. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.8670, 0.8775
Support level: 0.8535, 0.8355
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 77.15. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 80.75.
Resistance level: 80.75, 83.05
Support level: 77.15, 74.00
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1951.60. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70
Support level: 1951.60, 1939.75
250723 Afternoon Session Analysis
25 July 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
British Pound extended losses on disappointing PMI data.
Pound Sterling (GBP), which was widely traded by global investors, dropped after the announcement of a disappointing PMI in the UK. According to the Markit/CIPS, the UK manufacturing PMI dropped from 46.5 to 45.0, lower than market forecast at 46.1 while refreshing the record of lowest level in 6 months. Besides, the UK services PMI also dropped from 53.7 to 51.5, lower than market forecast at 53.0. Both of the weaker-than-expected PMI data represented that the UK economy was suppressed by the higher prices and poor demand, where investors were afraid that the recession scenario may come true. Not only UK economic condition is slowing down, the global economic condition is slowing down also, like Europe, France and Germany, which has proven by the downbeat PMI. Besides that, the investors have reduced their expectation of rate hike from Bank of England (BoE), from 50 basis points to 25 basis points as the risk of recession loomed. On the other hands, the US Dollar Index turned bullish as the US economy remained strong despite a series of rate hikes had been conducted by the Federal Reserve. Moreover, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, there are almost 99% of the investors expect the interest rate will be hiked by Fed again with another 25 basis point on coming Thursday. As of writing, the GBP/USD rose 0.05% to 1.2835.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices rose 0.28% to $78.90 per barrel due to production cuts announced earlier by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also, China as a biggest oil importer, is expected to implement more stimulus package to spur its economy, which in turn will boost up the oil demand. Besides, gold prices rose 0.40% to $1962.40 per troy amid the weakening of US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Event | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 109.7 | 111.5 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher after it breakout the previous resistance level at 100.80. MACD which illustrated a turn from bearish momentum to bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 101.55.
Resistance level: 101.55, 102.35
Support level: 100.80, 99.80
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while testing the resistance level at 1.2835. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.2835, 1.3000
Support level: 1.2670, 1.2525
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1185. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1010.
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1010, 1.0835
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 141.90. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 141.90, 142.90
Support level: 140.25, 138.70
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 0.6785, 0.6880
Support level: 0.6695, 0.6595
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.6160. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6280.
Resistance level: 0.6280, 0.6380
Support level: 0.6160, 0.6055
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded flat above the support level at 1.3110. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3295
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3110, 1.2975
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while testing the resistance level at 0.8710. MACD which illustrated a turn from bearish momentum to bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.8710, 0.8855
Support level: 0.8545, 0.8360
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 77.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 79.70.
Resistance level: 79.70, 82.55
Support level: 77.25, 73.75
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1971.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1940.20.
Resistance level: 1971.40, 2003.60
Support level: 1940.20, 1910.80
250723 Morning Session Analysis
25 July 2023 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback’s rally extended as Europe’s economy showed risks of recession.
The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, maintained its gains on Monday as it supported by recent economic data, which highlighted a stronger US economy compared to a sluggish euro zone. A significant purchasing managers’ survey revealed that US business activity had slowed to a five-month low in July, primarily due to a deceleration in the service sector’s growth. Yesterday, both the US Composite PMI and Services PMI posted weaker-than-expected readings at 52.0 and 52.4, while the economist forecast were at 53.1 and 54.0 respectively. Nevertheless, the data fared better than similar surveys conducted in Europe. In July, the German economy experienced a contraction as manufacturing output faced a significant downturn, coinciding with a sustained deceleration in services activity growth. Looking at the global picture, the US economy seems to offer more reasons for optimism compared to many other regions, which in turn is bolstering the strength of the US dollar. Traders are now focusing on clues about the future monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve. As of writing, the dollar index rose by 0.31% to 101.38.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices were down by -0.11% to $78.90 per barrel amid growing expectation of more China stimulus plan and tighter supplies. Besides, gold prices dropped by -0.02% to $1954.90 per troy ounce amid the strengthening of dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 109.7 | 111.5 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 100.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 101.60.
Resistance level: 101.60, 103.00
Support level: 100.65, 99.40
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2875. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2765.
Resistance level: 1.2875, 1.2970
Support level: 1.2765, 1.2605
EURUSD, Daily: was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1155. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1065.
Resistance level: 1.1155, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1065, 1.0960
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 141.60. However, MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 143.90, 144.90
Support level: 141.60, 139.00
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6675.
Resistance level: 0.6785, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6565
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.6150. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6455
Support level: 0.6150, 0.6040
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3175. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3330
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3065
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.8670. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.8670, 0.8775
Support level: 0.8535, 0.8355
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 77.15. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 77.15, 80.75
Support level: 73.90, 70.15
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1980.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1951.60.
Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70
Support level: 1951.60, 1939.75
240723 Afternoon Session Analysis
24 July 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
UK released upbeat Retail Sales, sign of rebound in Pound appeared.
Pound Sterling (GBP), which was widely traded by global investors, rebounded after the announcement of upbeat retail sales data. According to the Office for National Statistics, the Core Retail Sales (MoM) rose from 0.1% to 0.8%, exceeded the market forecast of 0.2%. The Retail Sales (MoM) rose from 0.1% to 0.7% this month, which also exceeded the market forecast of 0.2%. Since both of the data outperformed the market forecast and prior reading, this means that the UK still has strong consumer spending in June. With that, the strong consumer spending in UK might revert the inflationary pressures from the point of easing back to a higher level in the upcoming month. Besides that, investors were mixed about the pace at how high the interest rates will be hiked by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey on August 3. Most investors expect the interest rate by the BoE would peak around 6.5%, due to UK inflation remaining high. As of writing, the GBP/USD rose 0.10% to 1.2865.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices dropped -0.23% to $76.85 per barrel after spiking for more than 1% last Friday amid the supply shortages in the coming months and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine that could further hit supplies. Besides, gold prices dropped -0.02% to $1961.25 per troy amid the strengthening of US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Event | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 40.6 | 40.3 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – UK Manufacturing PMI | 46.5 | 45.9 | – |
| 21:45 | USD – US Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 46.3 | 46.4 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while testing the resistance level at 100.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains after it breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 100.80, 101.55
Support level: 99.80, 98.90
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1.2835. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3180
Support level: 1.2835, 1.2670
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1185. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1010
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1010, 1.0835
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 141.90. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 141.90, 142.90
Support level: 140.25, 138.70
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward its support level at 0.6695.
Resistance level: 0.6785, 0.6880
Support level: 0.6695, 0.6595
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while testing the support level at 0.6160. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after its breakout the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6280, 0.6380
Support level: 0.6160, 0.6055
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1.3110. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3295
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3110, 1.2975
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.8545. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.8710.
Resistance level: 0.8710, 0.8855
Support level: 0.8545, 0.8360
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while testing the resistance level at 77.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains after it breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 77.25, 79.70
Support level: 73.75, 71.80
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1971.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1940.20.
Resistance level: 1971.40, 2003.60
Support level: 1940.20, 1910.80
240723 Morning Session Analysis
24 July 2023 Morning Session Analysis
With the BoJ not expected to change policy, the yen fell and the dollar recovered.
The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, managed to close its last week’s trading session with gains as a Reuters report stated that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is leaning towards maintaining its current key yield control policy in the upcoming week. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that BoJ policymakers prefer to carefully analyze additional data to ensure that wages and inflation continue to rise before making any changes to the current policy. The report further mentioned that there is no unanimous agreement within the central bank, making the decision a potentially close call. As a result, it disappointed the market participants and caused a huge selling pressure in the Yen market, spurred the Us dollar. Besides, the market participants are now focusing on the upcoming Fed interest rate decision, whereby the Federal Reserve is anticipated to raise interest rates in the upcoming week and is likely to counter against speculations that it won’t proceed with another increase. The combination of slowing US inflation and robust US economic activity is currently having a negative impact on the dollar. The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting will commence on Wednesday, and there is a strong consensus among traders, with about 99% of them expecting a 0.25% rate hike, according to Fed Rate Monitor Tool. This move comes after a pause in rate adjustments during the June meeting. As of writing, the dollar index ticked up by 0.02% to 101.05.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices were up by 0.02% to $76.85 per barrel there was growing evidence that oil supplies will run short in the coming months, while tensions between Russia and Ukraine could further hit supplies. Besides, gold prices dropped by -0.02% to $1962.25 per troy ounce alongside the temporarily recovery of the dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 40.6 | 40.3 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – UK Manufacturing PMI | 46.5 | 45.9 | – |
| 21:45 | USD – US Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 46.3 | 46.4 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 100.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 100.65, 103.00
Support level: 99.40, 97.75
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2875. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2765.
Resistance level: 1.2875, 1.2970
Support level: 1.2765, 1.2605
EURUSD, Daily: was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1155. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1065.
Resistance level: 1.1155, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1065, 1.0960
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 141.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 141.60, 143.90
Support level: 139.00, 136.35
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6675.
Resistance level: 0.6785, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6565
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6290. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6150.
Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6455
Support level: 0.6150, 0.6040
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3175. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3245.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3330
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3065
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.8670. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.8670, 0.8775
Support level: 0.8535, 0.8355
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 77.15. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 77.15, 80.75
Support level: 73.90, 70.15
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1980.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1951.60.
Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70
Support level: 1951.60, 1939.75
210723 Afternoon Session Analysis
21 July 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
Japanese Yen keep on bull as trade balance shocked investor
Japanese Yen, which was widely traded by global investors, spiked as Japan’s trade balance unexpectedly flipped to its first surplus since July 2021. According to the Ministry of Finance Japan, the trade balance (Jun) rose to 43 billion from the prior reading’s -1381.9 billion, highly exceeded the market forecast of -46.7 billion. The trade balance is the difference between imported and exported goods and services. Besides that, export for Japan jumped from 0.6% to 1.5%, but slightly below the market forecast at 2.2%. Meanwhile, imports for Japan dropped further from -9.8% to -12.9%, missing the market forecast at -11.3%. Based on the data above, it proven that the demand for Yen increased but the outflow of Yen decreased. Apart from that, Japan’s CPI inflation grow slightly in June, and core CPI remained sticky. According to the Statistics Bureau, Japan’s National core CPI grew to 3.3% from 3.2%, which matched with market forecast. Although the CPI inflation is slightly above 3% and remains above the Bank of Japan (BOJ) target of 2%, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said no plan to tighten the policy. As of writing, the pair of USD/JPY 0.07% to 140.15.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices rose by 0.79% to $76.20 per barrel due to China’s imported crude oil from Russia reach record high of 2.6 million barrels per day. Besides, gold prices rose 0.04% to $1970.17 amid the weakness of the dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
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Today’s Highlight Events
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
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Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 99.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 100.80.
Resistance level: 100.80, 101.55
Support level: 99.80, 98.90
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3000. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend it losses toward the support level at 1.2835.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3180
Support level: 1.2835, 1.2670
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1185. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1010
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1010, 1.0835
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 140.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 140.25, 141.90
Support level: 138.70, 137.50
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward its support level at 0.6695.
Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.7015
Support level: 0.6785, 0.6695
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6280. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6160.
Resistance level: 0.6280, 0.6380
Support level: 0.6160, 0.6055
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1.3110. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3110, 1.2975
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.8545. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.8710
Resistance level: 0.8710, 0.8855
Support level: 0.8545, 0.8360
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 73.75. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 77.25, 79.70
Support level: 73.75, 71.80
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior while testing the support level at 1971.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 2003.60, 2048.95
Support level: 1971.40, 1940.00
210723 Morning Session Analysis
21 July 2023 Morning Session Analysis
The dollar index rose after labour data showed resilience conditions.
The dollar index, which traded against a basket of six major currencies, extended its gains after the US treasury yields rose on Thursday following the initial jobless claim and Philadelphia release. The initial jobless claims released on Thursday reduced to 228K from 237K, lower than economists’ estimation of 242K. It suggests the labour market continued to remain strong amid high-interest rates. This data also fueled investors’ bet on whether the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. According to FedWatch Tools, the chances of a further 25 basis points hike in September are priced at 14% and in November at 29%. Therefore, the 2-year treasury year increased by 7.1 basis points to 4.825%, while the 10-year bond yields rose by 10.4 basis points to 3.846%, and the dollar index rose afterwards. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s manufacturing survey continued to decline and showed further signs of its softening. It recorded at -13.5, lower than expected at -10.0. At this moment, investors will focus on the FOMC meeting next week, while the Fed is widely expected to hike rates a further 25 basis points. As of writing, the dollar index edged up by 0.51% to 100.79.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices traded up by 0.17% to $75.78 per barrel Saudi production cuts continued to weigh on the market. On the other hand, the gold price recovered by 0.11% to 1971.10 following the dollar strengthening in the previous trading session.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
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Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, DAILY: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breaks above from the previous resistance level at 100.20. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index extended its gains toward the resistance level at 100.80.
Resistance level: 100.80, 101.35
Support level: 100.20, 99.70
GBPUSD, DAILY: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.2830.
Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3210
Support level: 1.2830, 1.2610
EURUSD, DAILY: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1.1160. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.1075.
Resistance level: 1.1160, 1.1275
Support level: 1.1075, 1.0990
USDJPY, DAILY: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior rebound from the from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains towards the resistance level at 140.20
Resistance level: 140.20, 141.40
Support level: 138.70, 137.60
AUDUSD, DAILY: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 0.6770. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses after it successfully breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6910
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6700
NZDUSD, DAILY: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 0.6215.
Resistance level: 0.6310, 0.6390
Support level: 0.6215, 0.6105
USDCAD, DAILY: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1.3125. However, MACD is not showing any signal, is recommended to wait until further breakout.
Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3040
USDCHF, DAILY: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 0.8645. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.8715, 0.8785
Support level: 0.8645, 0.8580
CrudeOIL, DAILY: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 74.65. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes a technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 76.00, 77.40
Support level: 74.65, 73.15
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1983.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses towards the support level at 1965.60.
Resistance level: 1983.25, 2002.30
Support level: 1965.60, 1946.60
200723 Afternoon Session Analyst
20 July 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
UK inflation cooling down in June, Pound dropped.
Pound Sterling (GBP), which was widely traded by the global investors, plunged as the UK inflation for the month of June came at its slowest pace in over a year. According to Office for National Statistics, UK’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 7.9% in June, dropping from 8.7%, while also below the market forecast of 8.2%. Although the inflation remains high above the BoE 2% target, but it showed some sign that the inflation continued to ease amid the BoE’s aggressive monetary policy. The current UK inflation remains at a higher level due to high food prices and high wages paid. Therefore, the investors forecast that the BoE will more likely to hike 25 basis points (bps) interest rate, instead of a 50bps move in August. Besides that, the UK also released Producer Price Index (PPI) by Office for National Statistics stood at -1.3% from -1.2%, also below than market forecast -0.3%. This represented the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers has decreased. With that, the prices of goods and services will likely to revert from its prior significant increasing pace. As of writing, GBP/USD has risen 0.12% to 1.2955.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices rose by 0.12% to $75.38 per barrel due to Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories have reduced to -0.708 million from 5.946 million, although it was slightly above the market expectation of -2.440 million. Besides, gold prices rose 0.44% to $1985.44 per troy ounce as the expectation of a less hawkish Federal Reserve stance attracted some selling pressures toward the US dollar market and spurred the gold price.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Event | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 237k | 242k | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | -13.7 | -10.4 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Jun) | 4.3M | 4.21M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior while testing the resistance level at 99.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains if breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 99.80, 100.80
Support level: 98.90, 97.75
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3000. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend it losses toward the support level at 1.2835.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3180
Support level: 1.2835, 1.2540
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1185. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1460
Support level: 1.1185, 1.1010
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 138.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 140.25.
Resistance level: 140.25, 141.90
Support level: 138.70, 137.50
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior while testing the support level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after it breakout the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.7015
Support level: 0.6785, 0.6600
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior while testing the support level at 0.6280. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after it breakout the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6380, 0.6470
Support level: 0.6280, 0.6160
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3110
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3110, 1.2975
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior while testing the support level at 0.8545. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 0.8710, 0.8855
Support level: 0.8545, 0.8360
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 73.75. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 77.25, 79.70
Support level: 73.75, 71.80
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following the prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1971.40. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 2003.60.
Resistance level: 2003.60, 2048.95
Support level: 1971.40, 1940.00
200723 Morning Session Analysis
20 July 2023 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar index steady as UK & EU CPI data release.
The dollar index, which traded against a basket of six major currencies, steadied near 100.00 after hitting its lowest ground from the 15-month low. Before that, the dollar index rebounded after the release of the US retail sales data for June. The figure is down to 0.2% from 0.5% after the prior month’s reading adjusted from 0.3%, while the economist polled by Reuters expected the reading to rise to 0.5%. Meanwhile, the core retail sales in June remain solid by growing to 0.2% in June, slightly lower than 0.3% in the prior month’s reading. Although the reading is downbeat the market expectations after the prior month revised higher, it still suggesting US consumers continued to show resilience conditions. Nonetheless, retail sales data in June did not change the expectations that the Fed would raise the interest rate by 25 bp at the end of July. Besides, the greenback extended its gains after the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed some cooling in price pressure after the figure fell more than expected, and the GBP shrank afterwards. Following that, the gains of the dollar index were limited after the Europe zone Core CPI remained elevated and EUR strengthened. As of writing, the dollar index ticked up by 0.34% to 100.30.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices slipped by -0.16% to $75.19 per barrel as US crude inventories fell by -0.708M less than expected of -2.440M. On the other hand, the gold price rally cools and edged up by 0.01% to 1977.15 as investors await whether the Fed was close to endings its tightening cycle.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 237K | 242K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | -13.7 | -10.4 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Jun) | 4.30M | 4.23M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, DAILY: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breaks above from the resistance level at 99.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index extended its gains toward the resistance level at 100.20.
Resistance level: 100.20, 100.80
Support level: 99.70, 99.25
GBPUSD, DAILY: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous resistance level at 1.2990. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.2830.
Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3210
Support level: 1.2830, 1.2610
EURUSD, DAILY: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.1160.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1075
USDJPY, DAILY: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 138.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains towards the resistance level at 138.70
Resistance level: 138.70, 140.20
Support level: 137.60, 136.55
AUDUSD, DAILY: AUDUSD was traded higher following the rebound from the support level at 0.6770. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6910
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6700
NZDUSD, DAILY: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 0.6215.
Resistance level: 0.6310, 0.6390
Support level: 0.6215, 0.6105
USDCAD, DAILY: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.3125.
Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3040
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 0.8580. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.
Resistance level: 0.8580, 0.8645
Support level: 0.8535, 0.8490
CrudeOIL, DAILY: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 76.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the support level at 74.65.
Resistance level: 76.00, 77.40
Support level: 74.65, 73.15
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 1965.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains towards the resistance level at 1983.25.
Resistance level: 1983.25, 2002.30
Support level: 1965.60, 1946.60
180723 Afternoon Session Analysis
18 July 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar declined slightly as investors await on Fed’s interest decision.
The US dollar, which was traded against six other currencies, held steadily at a similar level as the investors were awaiting the Fed’s interest decision. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index reduced to 1.10 from 6.60 but exceeded the forecast which was polled by Reuters at -4.40. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is a monthly economic indicator that surveys 200 manufacturers from New York that measures the relative level of business conditions. A reading above zero represents that manufacturing activities are expanding, exerting upward pressures on the US dollar. Following the release of the positive data, the US dollar did not experience a huge spike due to investors waiting for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting next week 26 – 27 July. The Federal Funds Rates (FFR) is expected to remain through 2023 at around the 5.25%-5.50% range, a survey shown by the CME FedWatch Tool. As of writing, the US dollar index slipped -0.02% to 99.45.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices rose by 0.23% to $74.20 per barrel due to OPEC+ agreeing to cut millions of barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, although China recently just released GDP data which is lower than the market forecast. Besides, gold prices rose 0.15% to $1958.85 per troy ounce due to the weakness of the dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Event | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.3% | 0.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 99.80. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index undergoes technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 99.80, 100.80
Support level: 98.90, 97.75
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3000. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergo technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3330
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2835
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1185. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergo technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1460
Support level: 1.1185, 1.1010
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 138.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breakout to the resistance level.
Resistance level: 138.70, 140.25,
Support level: 137.50, 136.35
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.7015
Support level: 0.6785, 0.6600
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6380. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6280.
Resistance level: 0.6380, 0.6470
Support level: 0.6280, 0.6160
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1.3110. Due to the lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation such as a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3110, 1.2975
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior breakout from the previous support level at 0.8710. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergo technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 0.8710, 0.8855
Support level: 0.8545, 0.8360
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 73.75. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 77.25, 79.70
Support level: 73.75, 71.80
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 1971.40, 2003.60
Support level: 1940.00, 1910.80
180723 Morning Session Analysis
18 July 2023 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback struggled amid growing bets of less hawkish Fed.
The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, managed to stop the bleeding from its wound in the yesterday trading session as there were no major factors influencing market direction. During this week, it is anticipated that the dollar will stabilize as investors await the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25 basis point rate hike is expected. The substantial decrease in the dollar’s value last week was deemed somewhat unusual, and it is expected that the market will stabilize this week, potentially leading to a stronger dollar. The retail sales report for June, which has scheduled for release on Tuesday, will be the primary focus of the US economic landscape this week. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that this data will significantly impact monetary policy decisions. According to CME Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability of a rate hike in July is fully priced in by the market. Recent data indicating better-than-expected economic growth and a slower-than-anticipated increase in inflation have reduced the likelihood of a recession or a sharp economic slowdown. This has further fueled expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve. As of writing, the dollar index dropped -0.03% to 99.88.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices depreciated by -1.22% to $74.00 per barrel as the weak Chinese data increased the market fears over the prospect of oil demand. Besides, gold prices ticked up 0.01% to $1955.15 per troy ounce as the US dollar rebounded slightly following a rejection near the recent low level.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 USD Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.3% | 0.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 99.40. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 99.40.
Resistance level: 100.65, 103.00
Support level: 99.40, 97.75
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently retesting the support level at 1.3090. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3090, 1.2970
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1240. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1365
Support level: 1.1155, 1.1065
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 139.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 139.00, 141.60
Support level: 136.35, 133.10
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6925, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6785, 0.6675
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6290.
Resistance level: 0.6455, 0.6515
Support level: 0.6290, 0.6150
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3175. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3245.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3330
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3065
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.8670. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.8535.
Resistance level: 0.8670, 0.8775
Support level: 0.8535, 0.8355
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 77.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 73.90.
Resistance level: 77.15, 80.75
Support level: 73.90, 70.15
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1951.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70
Support level: 1951.60, 1939.75
170723 Afternoon Session Analysis
17 July 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
Aussie tumbles on China’s fragile economy.
The Aussie dollar, which traded against the dollar index slipped after China released its second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). China, as the largest trading partner of Australia, second-quarter annual basis GDP rose to 6.3% from 4.5%, but slightly lower than analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 7.3% increase in the second quarter. On a monthly basis, Q2 GDP slipped to 0.8% from 2.2%, but higher than the market anticipated of 0.5%. it caused the pair of AUDUSD to decline as major trading partners weakened in economic conditions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in line with market expectations of 5.2%, stood at the same readings as the previous month. A statement from the National Bureau of China showed that the unemployment rate among the younger group aged between 16 to 24 was up to 21.3, a new record. National Bureau of China spokesperson noted that China faces a complex geopolitical and economic international environment but he predicts that China can still achieve 5% in full-year growth target. As of writing, the AUDUSD ticked down by -0.42% to 0.6807.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices slipped by -0.70% to $74.74 per barrel as China’s GDP was announced lower than expected. On the other hand, the price of gold rose by 0.12% to 1962.78 after the dollar strengthened.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul) | 6.0 | 0.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 99.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index extended its gains toward the resistance level at 99.75.
Resistance level: 99.70, 100.20
Support level: 99.25, 98.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.2990.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3435
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2830
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.1160.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1075
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 138.70. However, MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 138.70, 140.20
Support level: 137.60, 136.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks above the prior support level at 0.6840. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 0.6770.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6910
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6700
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks above the prior support level at 0.6390. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 0.6770.
Resistance level: 0.6390, 0.6480
Support level: 0.6310, 0.6215
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3040
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 0.8645, 0.8715
Support level: 0.8580, 0.8535
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 74.65. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the next support level.
Resistance level: 74.65, 76.00
Support level: 73.15, 71.65
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains towards the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1965.60, 1983.25
Support level: 1946.60, 1933.05
170723 Morning Session Analysis
17 July 2023 Morning Session Analysis
US dollar edged higher as market pessimism was priced in.
The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, managed to regain its luster after hitting the 15-month low, as the market participants started to take profit on their short sell position. The dollar index experienced a sharp decline last week due to inflation data, which fell short of expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Producer Price Index on Thursday contributed to this trend, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its cycle of interest rate increases. With the inflation has been steadily slowing down in the recent months, it has fostered a sense of optimism among Americans about the future. According to a survey that released on Frida’s night, the US consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, increased by 13% in July. This marks the second consecutive month of improvement and represents the largest month-to-month gain since 2006. The index has reached its highest level since September 2021. Based on the survey result from the University of Michigan, the US Consumer Confidence Index rose to 72.6 from 64.4 in June. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 65.5. As a result, the dollar index regurgitated its previous losses and rebounded slightly before the end of Friday’s trading session. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.04% to 99.95.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices were down by -0.49% to $74.90 per barrel as the US dollar strengthened and oil traders booked profits from a strong rally. Besides, gold prices ticked down by -0.08% to $1954.00 per troy ounce as the investors took profit following the huge rally last week.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul) | 6.0 | 0.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 99.40. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 99.40.
Resistance level: 100.65, 103.00
Support level: 99.40, 97.75
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently retesting the support level at 1.3090. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3090, 1.2970
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1155. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1240.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1365
Support level: 1.1155, 1.1065
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 139.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 139.00, 141.60
Support level: 136.35, 133.10
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6925.
Resistance level: 0.6925, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6785, 0.6675
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6290. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6455.
Resistance level: 0.6455, 0.6515
Support level: 0.6290, 0.6150
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3175. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3245.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3330
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3065
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.8670. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.8535.
Resistance level: 0.8670, 0.8775
Support level: 0.8535, 0.8355
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 77.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 73.90.
Resistance level: 77.15, 80.75
Support level: 73.90, 70.15
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1951.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70
Support level: 1951.60, 1939.75
140723 Afternoon Session Analysis
14 July 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
Pound Sterling lifted despite fragile UK economic conditions.
The Pound Sterling which traded against the dollar index, lifted despite the UK economic output revealed by Official Nasional Statistics (ONS) showed a shrink in May. The monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reduced to -0.1% from 0.2%, while the economists expect the economic output in May will shrink to -0.3%. Separate economic data such as industrial production and manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was revealed by ONS on Thursday. The monthly reading of UK industrial production in May was reduced to -0.6% from -0.2%, higher than market expectation. According to the report, the decline was due to the fall in three of four main segments with electricity and gas being the largest contributor to the result. While the manufacturing production recorded -0.2% from -0.1%, lower than expectations of -0.5%. Since economists widely forecast the UK will enter into recession due to high inflation and high-interest rate, the better-than-expected GDP data for June would put the UK economy on track to avoid contraction. The pair of GBPUSD edged up as investors expressed optimism about the UK economy. Meanwhile, investors eye next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Jun to determine whether the Bank of England (BoE) will raise the rate by another half percentage of a quarter-point hike. As of writing the GBPUSD traded up by 0.06% to 1.3140.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices slipped by -0.29% to $76.91 per barrel as traders profited from taking on the previous trading session. On the other hand, the price of gold rose by 0.12% to 1962.78 after the dollar weakened due to lower inflation data announced yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | 65.5 | 64.4 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following the prior breaks below for the previous support level at 99.25. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 99.25, 99.70
Support level: 98.75, 98.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 1.2990. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3435
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2830
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 1.1075. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1075
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 137.60. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 137.60, 138.70
Support level: 136.55, 136.65
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the prior resistance level at 0.6840. However. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6910
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6700
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 0.6390. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 0.6480, 0.6535
Support level: 0.6390, 0.6310
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1.3125. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3040, 1.2940
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior breaks below from the previous support level at 0.8580. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 0.8580, 0.8645
Support level: 0.8530, 0.8460
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 77.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward support level.
Resistance level: 77.40, 79.10
Support level: 76.00, 74.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 1965.60, 1983.25
Support level: 1946.60, 1933.05