{"id":25840,"date":"2018-03-19T01:08:31","date_gmt":"2018-03-19T01:08:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/?p=25840"},"modified":"2018-03-19T01:08:31","modified_gmt":"2018-03-19T01:08:31","slug":"190318-weekly-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/information\/day\/190318-weekly-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"190318 Weekly Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

19 March 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia Weekly Report: March 19 \u2013 23<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Market Review (Forex): <\/u><\/strong>March 12 \u2013 16<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Greenback tacks on to its gains last Friday as investors heeds upon optimistic economic data and easing political turmoil in Washington. The dollar index rose 0.05% while closing the week at 90.19 against a basket of six major currencies. In the economic front, although building permits and housing starts shows significant decline with 1.298 million and 1.236 million respectively, investors sentiment was refreshed following a better-than-expected data with regards to employment and future economic outlook.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Based on a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTs Job Openings shows a significant improvement with 6.312 million jobs available versus economist forecast of only 5.890 million jobs. Likewise, Michigan Consumer Sentiment portrays an improvement in consumers prospect towards the economy with 102.0 versus 99.3 seen. A higher consumer sentiment may reflect more willingness in spending and may contribute to higher retail sales while propping up regional inflationary pressure.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the political front, President Donald Trump and his chief of staff John Kelly has allegedly reached a \u201ctruce\u201d following talks held on Thursday. Prior to this, CBS News reported that Kelly has suggested to leave the White House due to conflict of interest with the President. Such news has eased investors\u2019 concern over yet another political turmoil in the Trump administration following Rex Tillerson termination last week.<\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Building Permits<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

—– Forecast<\/em><\/p>\n

Building permits for the month of February came in with lesser-than-expected reading of 1.298 million.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Housing Starts<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

—– Forecast<\/em><\/p>\n

Housing starts misses economist expectation with only 1.236 million.<\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

JOLTs Job Openings<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

—– Forecast<\/em><\/p>\n

Job openings were higher than expected with 6.312 million jobs offered.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Michigan Consumer Sentiment<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

—– Forecast<\/em><\/p>\n

Consumer sentiment improved for the month of March from 99.7 to 102.0.
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pair of USD\/JPY depreciates by 0.31% to 106.01 during late Friday trading.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Euro extended losses by 0.12% to $1.2290 after ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a rather dovish speech on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GBP\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBP\/USD rose 0.04% while ended the week around $1.3942.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Market Review (Commodities): <\/u><\/strong>March 12 \u2013 16<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold price extended its losses last Friday as political turmoil in Washington eases while investors ponder upon a higher chance for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve as soon as next week. Price of the precious metal tumbled down 0.18% while last quoted at $1,313.86 a troy ounce.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gold prices set for a fourth consecutive weekly loss as investors wary of buying the dips in the precious metal ahead of US Federal Reserve\u2019s two-day meeting which will start on 20th<\/sup> March next week. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, traders are currently pricing in with a 93% chance for a 25-basis points rate hike to a range of 1.50%-1.75% on 21st<\/sup> March.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

While many believes that the Fed\u2019s rate hike has been priced in, the central bank\u2019s rate hike projection for the year or to be known as dot-plot may be shifted upwards next week \u2013 pointing towards a faster pace of rate hikes. Such bullish moves may send further upside on the greenback while pushing the precious metal further down.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crude oil price settled higher last Friday while recording a second consecutive weekly gain as investors turn their attention towards growing global crude demand which may help to outweigh pressure from strong US production. Price of the black commodity skyrocketed 1.73% or $1.06 to $62.26 during late Friday trading.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In a monthly reported released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the agency has revised its global demand growth outlook for year 2018 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day; significantly bullish when compared to prior. The agency also noted that changes in the trade policy may have a negative impact on oil production which may slowdown the ongoing US production which has attain 10.4 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

However, overall upside on the commodity remains limited after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released a rather bearish forecast of non-OPEC supply. In their report, OPEC postulate that supplies from non-OPEC members could increase to around 1.6 million barrels per day for 2018, significantly higher as compared to previous reading of 1.4 million barrels per day. Otherwise, OPEC reiterated that its effort to cut supply will be continued in order to help rebalanced the global oil prices.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Weekly Outlook: March 19 \u2013 23<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

For the week ahead, investors will be paying their attention to US Federal Reserve\u2019s two-day meeting which may revise their dot-plot projection for the year. Such revision may catalyze higher volatility in the market specifically US dollar and safe-haven gold.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world\u2019s largest oil consumer.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Highlighted economy data and events for the week: <\/u><\/strong>March 19 \u2013 23<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Monday, March 19<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>Trade Balance (Feb)<\/p>\n

EUR-\u00a0 <\/strong>Trade Balance (Jan)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Bostic Speaks<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tuesday, March 20<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>House Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German PPI (MoM) (Feb)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>CPI (YoY) (Feb)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>ZEW Economic Sentiment<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>RBA Meeting Minutes<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Wednesday, March 21<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>API Weekly Crude Oil Stock<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Claimant Count Change (Feb)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Unemployment Rate (Jan)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Mar)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Existing Home Sales (Feb)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Crude Oil Inventories<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Gasoline Inventories<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Thursday, March 22<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Fed Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n

NZD \u2013 <\/strong>RBNZ Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>Employment Change (Feb)<\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>Participation Rate (Feb)<\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>Unemployment Rate (Feb)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Initial Jobless Claims<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Manufacturing PMI (Mar)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Services PMI (Mar)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Economic Projection<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Statement<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Press Conference<\/p>\n

NZD \u2013 <\/strong>RBNZ Rate Statement<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>ECB Economic Bulletin<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>MPC Asset Purchase Facility Vote<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Friday, March 23<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>National Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>New Home Sales (Feb)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Bostic Speaks<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Technical Weekly Outlook: March 19 \u2013 23<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dollar Index<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: <\/strong>Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 89.40. Such price action suggests further bullish bias while the index is required to close above the resistance near 90.00 in order to further extend its bullish approach.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 90.00, 90.95<\/p>\n

Support level: 89.40, 88.40<\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBPUSD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

GBPUSD, Daily: <\/strong>GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of descending triangle. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction after closing below the 60-MA line (green).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1.3970, 1.4210<\/p>\n

Support level: 1.3800, 1.3600<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

USDJPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

USDJPY, Daily: <\/strong>USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the strong support level at 105.95. MACD histogram which shows some pickup in upward momentum may suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after successfully closing above the 20-MA line (red).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 108.40, 109.70<\/p>\n

Support level: 105.95, 105.45<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

EURUSD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

EURUSD, Daily: <\/strong>EURUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the upper level. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of downward signal and momentum may suggest the pair to advance further down after successfully breaking the strong support level at 1.2270.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2500<\/p>\n

Support level: 1.2270, 1.2170<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

GOLD_, Daily: <\/strong>Gold price remains traded within a descending triangle while currently testing at the strong support level of 1312.00. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests further bearish bias. However, a close below the strong support at 1312.00 is required to attain further verification.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1340.00, 1353.70<\/p>\n

Support level: 1312.00, 1295.00<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL, Daily: <\/strong>Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. A break above may suggest a change in trend direction to extend its upside bias thereafter. Otherwise, a retrace will suggests the commodity price to be remained under pressure and subject to the narrowing triangle formation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 63.75, 66.65<\/p>\n

Support level: 60.80, 59.00<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

19 March 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis   GCMAsia Weekly Report: March 19 \u2013 23 Market Review (Forex): March 12 \u2013 16 Greenback tacks on to its gains last Friday as investors heeds upon optimistic economic data and easing political turmoil in Washington. The dollar index rose 0.05% while closing the week at 90.19 against a basket […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13,30],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25840"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25840\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}