{"id":266853,"date":"2022-08-22T09:36:24","date_gmt":"2022-08-22T09:36:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/?p=266853"},"modified":"2022-08-22T09:36:24","modified_gmt":"2022-08-22T09:36:24","slug":"220822-weekly-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/information\/week\/220822-weekly-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"220822 Weekly Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

22 August 2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCMAsia Weekly Report:<\/strong> August 22 \u2013 26<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Market Review (Forex): August 15 \u2013 19<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

US Dollar<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies received significant bullish momentum last week after the hawkish statement from Fed\u2019s member has been released, which prompting investors to shift their capitals toward US Dollar. The Dollar Index has closed its market price at 107.96.<\/p>\n

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Last week, the US Dollar index extended its gains following the members of Federal Reserve had announced their hawkish statement about rate hikes. According to the latest monetary policy meeting minutes, the Federal Reserve officials indicated that they would likely to maintain their rate hike decision until inflation rate calm down substantially. Besides that, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard has vowed that the central bank might need about 18 month in order to get inflation back to the Fed\u2019s 2% target. He also reiterated his point of view that the inflation surge was not peaked yet, which hinted that the path of tightening monetary policy from Fed would less likely to pause in current time. Thus, market participant would likely to involve themselves into the US market to earn a higher risk-free return. In addition, the gains experienced by the US Dollar was extended over the rising tension between Russia and Ukraine, prompting investors to shift their capitals toward safe-haven assets such as greenback currency. On the other hand, a series of upbeat economic data such as Initial Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index had brought positive prospects toward economic progression in the US, spurred further bullish momentum on the US Dollar.<\/p>\n

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USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The pair of USD\/JPY extended its gains last week while closing its market price at 136.96. The pairing received bullish momentum amid the backdrop of Bank of Japan (BoJ) remained its dovish tone. The BoJ was one of the few global central banks that maintain a dovish stance while others have adopted tightening policies of hiking interest rates to combat inflation. Currently, the BoJ remained its short-term interest rate at -0.1% and 0% for the 10-year bond yields. It would likely to stoke a shift market sentiment toward other currencies which having better prospects such as US Dollar, as BoJ continue to remain its loosing monetary policy would drag down the risk-off return of investors in Japan.<\/p>\n

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EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

The pair of EUR\/USD slumped last week while closing its market price at 1.0031. The Euro received bearish momentum over the hawkish statement from Fed\u2019s member. As the Fed\u2019s member had reiterated that the US central bank would likely to remain its tightening monetary policy path, it led investors to flee away from the Euro market in order to purchase US Dollar which having better prospects. In addition, Euro extended its losses amid the bearish economic data. According to ZEW, the Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment posted at the reading of -55.3, missing the market expectation of -53.8.<\/p>\n

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GBP\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

The pair of GBP\/USD depreciated last week while ending last week session at the price of 1.1814. The Pound received bearish momentum last week following the pessimistic economic outlook in UK. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK GDP data came in at -0.1%, far weaker than the prior quarter\u2019s reading of 0.8% growth. The weaker-than-previous GDP data had indicated that the nation was facing the economy recession risk. On the other hand, the inflation rate in UK has raised above 10% for the first time in 40 years while it adding the odds of stagflation risk. Furthermore, the Bank of England (BoE) had claimed that the UK economy would enter into recession in the fourth quarter of the year, and the recession is expected to sustain for more than a year. It had dialed down the market optimism toward Pound Sterling as the UK economy was being \u201cclouded and uncertainty\u201d.<\/p>\n

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Market Review (Commodities): August 15 \u00a0\u2013 19<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold price depreciated last week while closing its market price at $1745.18 per troy ounces. Gold price received bearish momentum last week amid the strengthening of the US Dollar. The recent hawkish statement has sparked the appeal of the US Dollar, which spurred further bearish momentum on the gold price. With the US economy still surrounded by high inflationary pressures, higher interest rates are considered a “must” tool for the Fed to curb economic overheating.<\/p>\n

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CrudeOIL<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crude oil price slumped while ending last week session at the price of $88.95 per barrel. Crude oil price received bearish momentum last week amid the market concerns upon global economy slowdown, which lowered the market demand on crude oil. Besides, the oil price remained under pressure as the OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration has reduced their short-term demand forecast in the past week. Nonetheless, the losses of oil price was limited amid the Iran-US nuclear deal issue. Last week, the negotiation between the US and Iran have not reach an agreement, which hinted that the sanction on Iran\u2019s oil would be continue, causing the lack of oil supply in commodities market.<\/p>\n

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Weekly Outlook<\/u><\/strong>: August 22 – 26<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n

For the week ahead, investors would continue to focus on crucial economic data such as the US GDP data this week in order to determine further direction. Besides that, the ongoing situation with Ukraine-Russia war will also be in the eyes of investors.<\/p>\n

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As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world\u2019s largest oil consumer.<\/p>\n

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Highlighted economy data and events for the week: August 22 \u2013 26<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Time<\/strong><\/td>\nMarket<\/strong><\/td>\nEvent<\/strong><\/td>\nActual<\/strong><\/td>\nForecast<\/strong><\/td>\nPrevious<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Monday \u2013 22nd August 2022<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N\/A<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tuesday \u2013 23rd August 2022<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15:30<\/td>\nEUR<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0GBP<\/td>\nComposite PMI<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n51.3<\/td>\n52.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0GBP<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Manufacturing PMI<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n51.0<\/td>\n52.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0GBP<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Services PMI<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n52.0<\/td>\n52.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:00<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0USD<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 New Home Sales (Jul)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n575K<\/td>\n590K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wednesday \u2013 24th August 2022<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.2%<\/td>\n0.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:00<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n-3.8%<\/td>\n-8.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0USD<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Crude Oil Inventories<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n-7.056M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Thursday \u2013 25th August 2022<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14:00<\/td>\nEUR<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.0%<\/td>\n0.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:00<\/td>\nEUR<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n86.7<\/td>\n88.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19:30<\/td>\nEUR<\/td>\nECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 GDP (QoQ) (Q2)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n-0.8%<\/td>\n-0.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Initial Jobless Claims<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n253K<\/td>\n250K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Friday \u2013 26th August 2022<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.3%<\/td>\n0.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Risk Statement:<\/p>\n

Forex, Gold, Crude Oil, Commodities, CFD and all other margin trading investment products involve high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Your previous investment success in stock, futures or any other investment achieved does not mean that all your future investment will obtain the same results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives; risk associated and seek professional advice before deciding to trade or if you have any doubts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

22 August 2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis GCMAsia Weekly Report: August 22 \u2013 26   Market Review (Forex): August 15 \u2013 19 US Dollar The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies received significant bullish momentum last week after the hawkish statement from Fed\u2019s member has been released, which prompting investors to shift […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266853"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266853\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=266853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=266853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}