{"id":29383,"date":"2018-06-18T00:30:41","date_gmt":"2018-06-18T00:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/?p=29383"},"modified":"2018-06-18T00:30:41","modified_gmt":"2018-06-18T00:30:41","slug":"180618-weekly-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/information\/day\/180618-weekly-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"180618 Weekly Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

18 June 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia Weekly Report: June 18 \u2013 22<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Market Review (Forex): <\/u><\/strong>June 11 \u2013 15<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Greenback ticks up slightly during late Friday trading albeit gains were capped following US imminent announcement of heft tariffs against Chinese imports. The dollar index rose 0.02% while closing the week at 94.79 against a basket of six major currencies.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Last Friday, US President Donald Trump reaffirmed that a 25% tariff will be announced and imposed upon a list of import goods from China and vowed to enact further tariffs if Beijing retaliates. His statement sparked fears among market participants as such measure would raise the prospect for trade war between the world\u2019s two largest economies.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Initially, dollar slumped upon Trump\u2019s affirmative signal albeit managed to regain some bullish closure following better-than-expected reading of Empire State Manufacturing Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Both data moves in tandem with US Federal Reserve\u2019s projection last Thursday, citing robust economic growth and solid progression in household spending would warrant for a higher inflationary pressure in the future.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pair of USD\/JPY ticked up 0.03% to 110.66 during late Friday trading.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Euro rose 0.36% to $1.1610 against the greenback after experiencing a large selloff on Thursday following European Central Bank\u2019s call to leave the interest rate unchanged until summer of 2019.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GBP\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pair of GBP\/USD extended gains by 0.11% while ended the week at $1.3277.<\/p>\n


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Market Review (Commodities): <\/u><\/strong>June 11 \u2013 15<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold price extended its losses last Friday despite rising geopolitical and trade tension between US-China following higher prospect for a faster pace of rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. Price of the yellow metal plunged 1.72% while ended last week at $1,279.76 a troy ounce.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The safe haven asset came under pressure following Fed\u2019s interest rate decision on Thursday whom suggested one additional rate hike for the remaining year of 2018 due to rising consumer prices and robust economic performance. In a rising interest rate environment, gold\u2019s appeal as an alternative asset subsides as it fails to compete with higher interest-bearing assets such as bonds.<\/p>\n

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Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crude oil price plunged sharply on last Friday following further expansion of oil output in the United States while coupled with imminent production hike from OPEC and Russia. Price of the black commodity settled down 3.97%, ended the week at $64.25 per barrel.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to the US oilfield services provider, Baker Hughes reported that US oil drilling rigs rose for fourth-consecutive week, up by 1 to a total of 863. The data comes in tandem with the report from Energy Information Administration last Wednesday which shows that US daily oil output extended its uptrend, currently standing at a record high of 10.9 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In addition, crude oil price received extensive selling pressure after Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak postulate to gradually increase oil production after having discussion with Saudi Arabia. The suggestion came as they pledge to offset diminished output from Venezuela and Iran which may subject to international sanctions bound to be imposed by the United States.<\/p>\n


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Weekly Outlook: June 18 \u2013 22 \u00a0\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

For the week ahead, investors will pay attention to interest rate decision from the Bank of England as rising consumer prices continues to pressure the central bank to raise their rates further while Brexit risks continues to linger.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world\u2019s largest oil consumer.<\/p>\n

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Highlighted economy data and events for the week: <\/u><\/strong>June 18 \u2013 22\u00a0\u00a0 <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Monday, June 18<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>Trade Balance (May)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Dudley Speaks<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Duke Speaks<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tuesday, June 19<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>Wespac Consumer Sentiment (Q2)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Building Permits (May)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Bostic Speaks<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>ECB President Draghi Speaks<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Williams Speaks<\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>RBA Meeting Minutes<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Wednesday, June 20<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>API Weekly Crude Oil Stock<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jun)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Existing Home Sales (May)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Crude Oil Inventories<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Gasoline Inventories<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>ECB President Draghi Speaks<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Thursday, June 21<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

NZD \u2013 <\/strong>GDP (QoQ) (Q1)<\/p>\n

CHF \u2013 <\/strong>SNB Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Philly Fed Employment (Jun)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Initial Jobless Claims<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Wholesales Sales (MoM) (Apr)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

CHF \u2013 <\/strong>SNB Monetary Policy Assessment<\/p>\n

CHF \u2013 <\/strong>SNB Press Conference<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>OPEC Meeting<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Friday, June 22<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>National Core CPI (YoY) (May)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Services PMI (Jun)<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Core CPI (MoM) (May)<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>OPEC Meeting<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Technical Weekly Outlook: June 18 \u2013 22\u00a0\u00a0 <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dollar Index<\/strong><\/p>\n

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DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: <\/strong>Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the threshold of 95.00. Such retracement suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction before extending its uptrend based on bullish signal from the MACD histogram.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 94.10, 95.00<\/p>\n

Support level: 93.00, 91.95<\/p>\n


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GBPUSD<\/strong><\/p>\n

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GBPUSD, Daily: <\/strong>GBPUSD extended losses following prior breakout from the support level of 1.3300. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the strong support near 1.3170.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3445<\/p>\n

Support level: 1.3170, 1.3045<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


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USDJPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

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USDJPY, Daily: <\/strong>USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing near the support level at 110.50. Such retracement suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction before extending its bullish bias based on the current upward trendline and bullish signal from MACD histogram.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 111.35, 112.10<\/p>\n

Support level: 110.50, 109.35<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


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EURUSD<\/strong><\/p>\n

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EURUSD, Daily: <\/strong>EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1850. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1560.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1850<\/p>\n

Support level: 1.1560, 1.1445<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


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GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

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GOLD_, Daily: <\/strong>Gold price was traded higher after gaining some support near the threshold of 1275.00. Recent price action suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before extending its losses based on the prior formation of death cross from MACD histogram.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1285.95, 1304.30<\/p>\n

Support level: 1275.00, 1266.25<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


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Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

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CrudeOIL, Daily: <\/strong>Crude oil price extended losses following prior retracement from the resistance level at 67.35. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to advance further down after breaking the support of 64.10.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 65.70, 67.30<\/p>\n

Support level: 64.10, 61.80<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

18 June 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis   GCMAsia Weekly Report: June 18 \u2013 22 Market Review (Forex): June 11 \u2013 15 Greenback ticks up slightly during late Friday trading albeit gains were capped following US imminent announcement of heft tariffs against Chinese imports. The dollar index rose 0.02% while closing the week at 94.79 against a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13,30],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29383"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29383\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}