{"id":31225,"date":"2018-07-30T00:33:54","date_gmt":"2018-07-30T00:33:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/?p=31225"},"modified":"2018-07-30T00:33:54","modified_gmt":"2018-07-30T00:33:54","slug":"300718-weekly-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/information\/day\/300718-weekly-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"300718 Weekly Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

30<\/strong> July 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 30 \u2013 August 3<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Market Review (Forex): <\/u><\/strong>July 23 \u2013 27\u00a0 <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

US Dollar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Greenback edged lower against other major peers last Friday despite optimistic preliminary reading of US second quarter GDP. The dollar index depreciates by 0.09%, ended the week at around 94.67.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to US Commerce Department, US Gross Domestic Product grew at a faster pace with 4.1% during April till June, in line with economist forecast. The strong GDP reading was largely driven by a surge in consumer spending following tax cuts albeit being offset partially with negative contribution from private inventory and residential fixed investment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Some analyst questioned the sustainability of such growth as benefits from fiscal stimulus may dial down next year. Such outlook was given as US Federal Reserve pledged to tighten their monetary policy further as inflationary pressure and job markets continues to expand at a faster rate.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pair of USD\/JPY slumped 0.18% to 111.03 during late Friday trading.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Euro recovered its losses by 0.13% to $1.1658 against the greenback. The single common currency received some buying support following last week\u2019s depreciation after ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated to keep interest rates steady until next year.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GBP\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pound sterling ticked down 0.02% to $1.3106 against the US dollar.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Market Review (Commodities): <\/u><\/strong>July 23 \u2013 27\u00a0 <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold price recovered slightly on Friday following a slump in the greenback although US economy expands more rapidly during the second quarter. Price of the yellow metal ticked up 0.03% while ended the week at $1,223.08 a troy ounce.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Evidently, safe-haven assets which are denominated in US dollar will received some buying support in the event of a depreciation of the denominated currency. However, recovery on the precious metal remains limited as market participants places higher expectation on the US Federal Reserve to tighten their monetary policy in a more rapid fashion for the long-run.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In a setting with higher interest rates, demand for non-yielding assets such as gold will diminish as it fails to compete with high-yielding assets such as the US Treasury bonds.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crude oil price edges lower on Friday following higher US oil rig count which dials down market expectation for a slowdown in regional oil production. Price of the black commodity slipped 0.82%, closing the week at $70.07 per barrel.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

According to oilfield service provider, Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States were up by 3 to a total of 863. The reading marked the first rig count rise in three weeks, signaling higher possibility for further expansion in US oil production.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

However, losses on the commodity remains limited as investors places their attention upon other signals which points to lower supplies in the market. Prior, Saudi Arabia temporarily paused their shipments through the Red Sea strait after two of its oil tankers were reportedly attacked by Houthi Rebels.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The disruption in the Middle East may decrease their oil exports and production, increasing market expectation for lower supply from the region that could underpin global oil prices. Furthermore, supply issue which stemmed from Libya, Venezuela and Nigeria has also further underpinned overall optimism towards a crude supply draw globally.<\/p>\n


\n<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Weekly Outlook: July 23 \u2013 27 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

For the week ahead, investors will place their attention over the highly anticipated Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision to monitor their stance towards future monetary policy and economic outlook.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Otherwise, oil traders will place their attention over OPEC meeting which is scheduled to commence on Wednesday to obtain further signals with regards to their approach taken to tackle imminent supply shortage.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Highlighted economy data and events for the week: <\/u><\/strong>July 30 \u2013 August 3\u00a0 <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Monday, July 30<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tuesday, July 31<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

CNY \u2013 <\/strong>Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

CNY \u2013 <\/strong>Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>BoJ Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Unemployment Change (Jul)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>CPI (YoY) (Jul)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Personal Income (MoM) (Jun)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun)<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>GDP (MoM) (May)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>BoJ Outlook Report<\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>BoJ Monetary Policy Statement<\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>BoJ Press Conference<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Wednesday, August 1<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>API Weekly Crude Oil Stock<\/p>\n

NZD \u2013 <\/strong>Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)<\/p>\n

CNY \u2013 <\/strong>Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Crude Oil Inventories<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>OPEC Meeting<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Thursday, August 2<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Fed Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Construction PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>BoE Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Initial Jobless Claims<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Statement<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>BoE Inflation Report<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>BoE Gov Carney Speaks<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Friday, August 3<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Services PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Unemployment Rate (Jul)<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Trade Balance (Jun)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Technical Weekly Outlook: July 30 \u2013 August 3<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dollar Index<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: <\/strong>Dollar index remains traded within an ascending triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate rebound signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the upper level of the triangle.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 95.00, 95.90<\/p>\n

Support level: 94.10, 93.00<\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBPUSD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

GBPUSD, Daily: <\/strong>GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which begins to form bearish signal may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of support level near 1.3045.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1.3170, 1.3300<\/p>\n

Support level: 1.3045, 1.2890<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

USDJPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

USDJPY, Daily: <\/strong>USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum may suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above the threshold of 111.00.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 111.00, 112.10<\/p>\n

Support level: 110.50, 109.35<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

EURUSD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

EURUSD, Da<\/strong>ily: <\/strong>EURUSD remains traded within a descending triangle following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal may suggest the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of support level near 1.1560.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1850<\/p>\n

Support level: 1.1560, 1.1445<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

GOLD_, Daily: <\/strong>Gold price extended its losses following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line which continues to expand downwards suggests the commodity price to advance further down after successfully breaking the strong support near 1222.00.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1239.20, 1257.00<\/p>\n

Support level: 1222.00, 1204.70<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL, Daily: <\/strong>Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line which continues to narrow downward suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 60-MA line (green).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 70.45, 74.00<\/p>\n

Support level: 68.40, 66.40<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

30 July 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis   GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 30 \u2013 August 3 Market Review (Forex): July 23 \u2013 27\u00a0 US Dollar Greenback edged lower against other major peers last Friday despite optimistic preliminary reading of US second quarter GDP. The dollar index depreciates by 0.09%, ended the week at around 94.67.   According […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13,30],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31225"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31225\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}