{"id":33846,"date":"2018-10-01T07:12:45","date_gmt":"2018-10-01T07:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/?p=33846"},"modified":"2018-10-01T07:12:45","modified_gmt":"2018-10-01T07:12:45","slug":"011018-weekly-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/information\/week\/011018-weekly-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"011018 Weekly Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

1 October 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia Weekly Report: October 1 – 5<\/strong><\/p>\n

Market Review (Forex): September 24 \u2013 September 28<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

US Dollar<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US dollar had undergone sharp appreciation throughout the week amid the Fed\u2019s interest rate hike which created positive sentiment for the dollar and boosted investors\u2019 confidence towards the greenback.\u00a0 The dollar index increased during the week while closing the price at 94.75 last Friday.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The interest rate hike on Thursday morning Asian hours which increased by 25 basis point from previous 2.00% to 2.25% had since put dollar back on its safe-haven asset place while investors are expecting further gradual rate hike until the year 2020. Further boosting the dollar index was the releasement of US economic data GDP which successful hitting the forecasted value of 4.2%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overall, the dollar continues to strengthen against a basket of six major currencies as investors shift their portfolio to pro-USD amid the positive sentiment from the rate hike and further hikes to be expected until year 2020. Investors confidence grew thus pushing the dollar price upwards for the past week.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

USDJPY pair rose throughout last week before closing at 113.67 hitting a nine-months high during late Friday trading session. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated on last Tuesday that the central bank must focus on the side effects of its stimulus program (QE) as current inflation remains further from the BOJ\u2019s target. Kuroda also stated that before entering the phase to normalize its monetary policy and increasing interest rate, the country must first achieve its target of 2 percent inflation as soon as possible.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

EURUSD fell throughout last week before closing at 1.1602 during last week Friday session amid Italy\u2019s budget crisis where they decided to settle with 2.4% deficit target for the following year which triggered a sell-off in the Italian bonds. The pair may suffer further losses if the Italian bonds extend its depreciation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GBP\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBPUSD overall declined in value throughout last week before closing at 1.3027 during late Friday trading session as UK Prime Minister Theresa May determination for a no-deal Brexit grows stronger. Concerns on the ongoing Brexit negotiations created a negative sentiment for the pound which caused it to fell last week. Investors will focus mainly on Brexit headlines for a clearer direction for the pound.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market Review (Commodities): September 24 \u2013 September 28<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold price plunged throughout the week as dollar strengthened amid Fed rate hike last week. The yellow metal managed to recover its losses while closing last week market at to $1191.50 a troy ounce.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The gold price was seen falling as the dollar continued its bullish momentum amid Fed\u2019s interest rate decision where investors sentiment expects future rate hike until the year 2020. Gold price fell the whole week but managed to regain some of its losses on Friday as bullish investors protected their position when gold fell to a month low.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

The price of crude oil was increasing throughout last week as Iran sanctions deadline came closing in. The commodity price surged to $73.47 per barrel during last Friday\u2019s session.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The crude oil market enjoyed its gains as OPEC troubles with its decline in output due to the Iran sanctions. US President Donald Trump contacted OPEC leader, Saudi Arabia King Salman on the weekend to discuss the efforts to ensure stable market and global economic growth. Before that, Trump criticized OPEC for gradual price increase and demanded that they increase output to ease down the market before US mid-term elections.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overall, crude oil price can be seen rising for the past week as positive sentiment surrounds the oil market due to confidence that global oil supply will fall from the Iran sanctions. Discussions were made between OPEC producers and non-OPEC producers to increase global crude supply by 500,000 barrel per day but was not taken into effect still, thus prolonging investors confidence towards the oil price.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Weekly Outlook: October 1 \u2013 5 <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

For the week ahead, investors will focus on the release of various economics data especially US Non-farm Payroll (NFP) this Friday. Non-Farm Payroll which measure the unemployment rate for US excluding farm sectors is a major price indicator for the dollar.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world\u2019s largest oil consumer.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Highlighted economy data and events for the week: <\/u><\/strong>October 1 \u2013 5 \u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Monday, October 1<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Manufacturing PMI (Sep)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tuesday, October 2<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

AUD \u2013<\/strong> RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
\nGBP \u2013 <\/strong>Construction PMI (Sep)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

AUD \u2013<\/strong> RBA Rate Statement<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Wednesday, October 3<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Services PMI (Sep)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Crude Oil Inventories<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/strong> \u2013 Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Thursday, <\/strong>October 4<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Initial Jobless Claims<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug)<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Ivey PMI (Sep)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Friday, October 5<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)<\/p>\n

USD<\/strong> \u2013 Unemployment Rate (Sep)<\/p>\n

CAD \u2013 <\/strong>Employment Change (Sep)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1 October 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis   GCMAsia Weekly Report: October 1 – 5 Market Review (Forex): September 24 \u2013 September 28 US Dollar The US dollar had undergone sharp appreciation throughout the week amid the Fed\u2019s interest rate hike which created positive sentiment for the dollar and boosted investors\u2019 confidence towards the greenback.\u00a0 The dollar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33846"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33846\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}