{"id":34466,"date":"2018-10-08T06:03:20","date_gmt":"2018-10-08T06:03:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/?p=34466"},"modified":"2018-10-08T06:03:20","modified_gmt":"2018-10-08T06:03:20","slug":"081018-weekly-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/information\/week\/081018-weekly-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"081018 Weekly Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

8 October 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia Weekly Report: October 8 \u2013 12 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Market Review (Forex): October 1 \u2013 October 5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

US Dollar<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US dollar had undergone a sharp depreciation from its 1 month-high amid the releasement of economic data Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) before recovering some of its losses bolstered by US Unemployment Rate before closing the market at 95.25 on Friday.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The NFP data on Friday had an actual reading of 134K which is much lower compared to the forecasted value of 185K. Acting as one of the major indicators for the dollar, the data caused investors to move their investment towards anti-USD which send the price of dollar bearish. However, its losses were limited after investors react towards the US Unemployment Rate data which had an actual reading of 3.7%, 0.1% lower compared to the forecasted value of 3.8%. A lower unemployment rate indicates a healthier employment status for the US as more people own a job.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overall, the dollar continues to strengthen against a basket of six major currencies as investors start to recover their confident towards the dollar amid better US unemployment status, in addition to expected future rate hikes up to the neutral rate of 3.4%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

USDJPY pair rose to a highest high at 114.50 since November 2017 last week before falling back to 113.65 during late Friday trading session. Overall, the pair remained traded in an upward trend.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

EURUSD fell throughout last week before closing higher at 1.1530 during last week Friday session amid poor NFP data which weakened the dollar. In general, the pair was still traded in a down trend last week due to Italy\u2019s budget crisis where they decided to settle with 2.4% deficit target for the following year which triggered a sell-off in the Italian bonds.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GBP\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBPUSD undergone an appreciation throughout last week before closing last Friday session at 1.3115. The pair was falling during early of the week before regaining its strength amid positive Brexit sentiment where Theresa May is trying her best to make a deal before the 2 weeks deadline.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market Review (Commodities): October 1 \u2013 October 5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold price appreciated throughout the week as dollar faces uncertainty before the releasement of NFP data. The yellow metal surged earlier of the week before falling back down to $1,203.60 per troy ounce during late Friday trading session.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overall, the gold price appreciated throughout the whole week as investors shift their investment towards the gold market as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainty towards the dollar before the releasement of NFP data. Later that week, gold price managed to close the market with an overall gained as poor NFP data weakened the dollar.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

The price of crude oil was increasing throughout last week as Iran sanctions deadline came closing in. The commodity price increased to $74.30 per barrel during last Friday\u2019s session.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The crude oil market surge to a 4-year high earlier last week when concerns grew over the sanction of Iran that will take into effect on 4th<\/sup> November while US insisted that they will not use their reserve crude to stabilize the fall in supply from Iran. Confidence over global decrease in oil supply had since created positive sentiment towards the oil market.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

However, the crude oil fell from its 4-year high later that week as Saudi Arabia and Russia had made a private discussion to stabilize the short on supply from Iran\u2019s sanction. In addition to that, the Crude Oil Inventories data which had a much higher than expected reading worsen investors confident towards crude oil market.<\/p>\n

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Weekly Outlook: October 8 \u2013 12 \u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

For the week ahead, investors will focus on the release of various economics data such as PPI and Core CPI which contribute to the measurement of inflation level of the country.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world\u2019s largest oil consumer.<\/p>\n

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Highlighted economy data and events for the week: <\/u><\/strong>October 8 \u2013 12 \u00a0\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Monday, October 8<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tuesday, October 9<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German Trade Balance (Aug)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Wednesday, October 10<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>API Weekly Crude Oil Stock<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>GDP (MoM)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>PPI (MoM) (Sep)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Thursday, <\/strong>October 11<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Crude Oil Inventories<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>OPEC Monthly Report<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Friday, October 12<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German CPI (MoM) (Sep)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>IEA Monthly Report<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

8 October 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis   GCMAsia Weekly Report: October 8 \u2013 12 Market Review (Forex): October 1 \u2013 October 5 US Dollar The US dollar had undergone a sharp depreciation from its 1 month-high amid the releasement of economic data Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) before recovering some of its losses bolstered by US Unemployment Rate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34466"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34466"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34466\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}