{"id":37969,"date":"2018-11-12T07:46:26","date_gmt":"2018-11-12T07:46:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/?p=37969"},"modified":"2018-11-12T07:46:26","modified_gmt":"2018-11-12T07:46:26","slug":"121118-weekly-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/information\/week\/121118-weekly-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"121118 Weekly Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

12 November 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia Weekly Report: November 12 \u2013 16<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Market Review (Forex): November 5 \u2013 November 9<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

US Dollar<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US dollar appreciated throughout the week supported by positive data and hawkish sentiment amid Fed\u2019s Interest Rate Statement. The dollar index underwent short-term technical correction, closing Friday\u2019s market lower at 96.68 after a large buy-off due to positive US PPI data.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Earlier last week, dollar gained the upper hand against six major currencies with a higher than expected reading of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 60.3. While investors were still digesting positive sentiment amid last NFP data, the PMI data further boosted demand for the dollar. Later that week, US FOMC Statement and Fed Interest Rate Decision further gains for bull as US Central Bank said that the economic growth was in pace and job sector was improving. As interest rates are currently locked at 2.25% and Friday\u2019s PPI data proves improving inflation outlook, the Fed is expected to continue its 4th<\/sup> rate hike this year on December. Limiting dollar gains last week was the mid-term election results where the Democrats won the House while Republicans retaining the Senate worries investors that President Donald Trump will be having a hard time to introduce new legislation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overall, the dollar continues its bullish momentum while sentiment remains strong towards the dollar. Investors will be paying attention to this week\u2019s CPI data while dollar faces short-term technical correction, retracing from higher levels.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n

USDJPY surged to a new high since 30th<\/sup> September, but closing the market slightly slower at 113.70 on Friday. The Japanese Yen was largely sold throughout the week when investors risk appetite increases, causing investors to shift from safe-haven market to risky asset.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

EURUSD fell to its 31th October low while closing the market at 1.1335 during last week Friday session. Sentiment towards the euro market remained cloudy as Italy is still unable propose a better budget plan.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GBP\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBPUSD plunged throughout the week, closing last Friday session at 1.2970. The pair depreciated as Brexit concerns grew when UK government reconfirmed that the news regarding UK and EU achieving an agreement by this year to be false. Both pound and euro undergone large sell-off as investors risk appetite shift towards dollar.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Market Review (Commodities): November 5 \u2013 November 9<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold price depreciated throughout last week, reaching a month low at $1209.60 per troy ounce as the demand for safe haven asset drastically decreases. The yellow metal fell last Friday amid hawkish Interest Rate Statement and bullish PPI data.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overall, the safe-haven assets such as Japanese Yen and gold was largely sold-off as risk appetite for dollar increases, supported by positive data and hawkish comments from FOMC.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

The price of crude oil was falling throughout the week amid worsening sentiment from its data, closing last Friday\u2019s session at $59.80 per barrel.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The crude oil market underwent a large sell-off when both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated growing inventories on a global scale, worsening inventor\u2019s confidence towards the oil market as higher supplies will lead to lower price. Saturday\u2019s Oil Rig Count data also indicated increased drilling activity, further boosting the global oil supply level.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overall, the crude oil market remains cloudy while investors awaits Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories data to further determine crude oil price.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Weekly Outlook: November 12 – 16 \u00a0\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

For the week ahead, investors will focus on various data such as CPI from US, UK and European market which is a major indicator for a country\u2019s inflation level.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world\u2019s largest oil consumer.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Highlighted economy data and events for the week: <\/u><\/strong>November 12 \u2013 16 <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Monday, November 12<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/strong><\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tuesday, November 13<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German CPI (MoM) (Oct)<\/p>\n

GBP <\/strong>\u2013 Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Sep)<\/p>\n

GBP <\/strong>\u2013 Claimant Count Change (Oct)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Daly Speaks<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Brainard Speaks<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL<\/strong> \u2013 OPEC Monthly Report<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Wednesday, November 14<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPY \u2013 <\/strong>GDP (QoQ) (Q3)<\/p>\n

CNY \u2013<\/strong> Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>CPI (YoY) (Oct)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013<\/strong> Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)<\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Crude Oil Inventories<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>FOMC Member Daly Speaks<\/p>\n

USD <\/strong>\u2013 FOMC Member Quarles Speaks<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Thursday, <\/strong>November 15<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL <\/strong>\u2013 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock<\/p>\n

AUD \u2013 <\/strong>Employment Change (Oct)<\/p>\n

GBP <\/strong>\u2013 Retails Sales (MoM) (Oct)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)<\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Friday, November 2<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL \u2013 <\/strong>Crude Oil Inventories<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>CPI (YoY) (Oct)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD \u2013 <\/strong>Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/p>\n

EUR \u2013 <\/strong>ECB President Draghi Speaks<\/p>\n

GBP \u2013 <\/strong>Inflation Report Hearings<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12 November 2018\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Weekly Analysis   GCMAsia Weekly Report: November 12 \u2013 16 Market Review (Forex): November 5 \u2013 November 9 US Dollar The US dollar appreciated throughout the week supported by positive data and hawkish sentiment amid Fed\u2019s Interest Rate Statement. The dollar index underwent short-term technical correction, closing Friday\u2019s market lower at 96.68 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37969"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37969\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}