{"id":71499,"date":"2019-08-01T02:49:04","date_gmt":"2019-08-01T02:49:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/?p=71499"},"modified":"2019-08-01T02:49:04","modified_gmt":"2019-08-01T02:49:04","slug":"010819-morning-session-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/information\/day\/010819-morning-session-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"010819 Morning Session Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

1 August 2019\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>Morning <\/strong>Session Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Dollar surge despite rate cut.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dollar index measuring its value against a basket of six major currency pairs surged to its 2-years high despite Fed\u2019s rate cut decision. Greenback received bullish momentum after Fed\u2019s decision to cut its rate by 25-basis point, the first cut in a decade since the financial crisis. As the rate cut was widely expected, overall sentiment from FOMC was rather mixed whereby Fed\u2019s Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the cut was not a beginning of a long series of rate cuts, however he also emphasized that it would not be just one rate cut. According to the FOMC statement, the Fed left their door open to future cuts, stating that they will act appropriately to sustain expansion of economic activity and will further evaluate future economic data to keep their labor market strong and inflation level near their symmetric 2 percent objective. As investors were expecting a dovish stance from the FOMC with higher hopes on an aggressive cut, the statement had lowered investors expectations while causing them to largely buy the dollar and sell safe-haven assets. However, the Fed had also ended its balance sheet reduction two months earlier than planned, loosening their monetary policy early than expected. Investors will now focus on upcoming data from the US to further gauge Fed\u2019s future monetary policy stance. As of writing, dollar index was up by 0.37% to 98.55 while pair of USD\/JPY was up by 0.43% to 109.20.<\/p>\n

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As for commodities, crude oil price fell 0.40% to $57.65 per barrel despite a major downfall in crude oil inventories. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude inventories fell by 8.496M, exceeding economists\u2019 forecast to fall only 2.588M. However, the major fall in stockpiles failed to provide support for oil prices as the Fed signals rate cut may be limited. Besides that, recent Sino-US trade talks which ended without any significant progress further worsen the sentiment for oil market. On the other hand, gold price plunged by 0.22% to $1409.50 a troy ounce following investors risk appetite towards the dollar after the FOMC statement, causing investors to sell their safe-haven assets and enter into stronger dollar.<\/p>\n

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Today\u2019s Holiday Market Close<\/u><\/p>\n

Time\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Market\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Event<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\/A<\/p>\n

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Today\u2019s Highlight Events<\/u><\/p>\n

Time\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Market\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Event<\/strong><\/p>\n

19:00\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 GBP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BoE Inflation Report
\nTentative\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 GBP\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
\n19:30\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 GBP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BoE Gov Carney Speaks<\/p>\n

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Today\u2019s Highlight Economic Data<\/u><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Time<\/strong><\/td>\nNation & Data<\/strong><\/td>\nPrevious<\/strong><\/td>\nForecast<\/strong><\/td>\nActual<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15.55<\/td>\nEUR \u2013 German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/td>\n43.1<\/td>\n43.1<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:00<\/td>\nEUR \u2013 Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/td>\n46.4<\/td>\n46.4<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:30<\/td>\nGBP \u2013 Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/td>\n48.0<\/td>\n47.7<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19:00<\/td>\nGBP \u2013 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug)<\/td>\n0.75%<\/td>\n0.75%<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD \u2013 Initial Jobless Claims<\/td>\n206K<\/td>\n212K<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:00<\/td>\nUSD \u2013 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)<\/td>\n51.7<\/td>\n52.0<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Technical Analysis<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

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DOLLAR_INDX, H4: <\/strong>Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 98.50. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it breaks and close above the resistance level.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 98.50, 99.85
\nSupport level: 97.90, 97.10<\/p>\n

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GBPUSD, Daily: <\/strong>GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2245. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1955.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 1.2245, 1.2400
\nSupport level: 1.1955, 1.1775<\/p>\n

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\u00a0\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

EURUSD, H4: <\/strong>EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1100. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1015.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 1.1100, 1.1170<\/p>\n

Support level: 1.1015, 1.0950<\/p>\n

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\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

USDJPY, H4: <\/strong>USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 109.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 109.75.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 109.75, 110.30
\nSupport level: 109.00, 108.50<\/p>\n

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AUDUSD, H4: <\/strong>AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6825. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6905
\nSupport level: 0.6825, 0.6760<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n

NZDUSD, H4: <\/strong>NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 0.6550. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the death cross formation suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6490.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 0.6550, 0.6600
\nSupport level: 0.6490, 0.6420<\/p>\n

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\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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USDCAD, H4: <\/strong>USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3230. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3290
\nSupport level: 1.3145, 1.3095<\/p>\n

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USDCHF, H4: <\/strong>USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9935. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0005.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0095<\/p>\n

Support level: 0.9935, 0.9895<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

CrudeOIL, H4: <\/strong>Crude oil price traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 57.85. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 56.00.<\/p>\n

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Resistance level: 57.85, 59.25<\/p>\n

Support level: 56.00, 54.50<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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GOLD_, H4: <\/strong>Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1403.15.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95
\nSupport level: 1403.15, 1386.35<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1 August 2019\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Morning Session Analysis   Dollar surge despite rate cut. Dollar index measuring its value against a basket of six major currency pairs surged to its 2-years high despite Fed\u2019s rate cut decision. Greenback received bullish momentum after Fed\u2019s decision to cut its rate by 25-basis point, the first cut in a decade […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71499"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}