{"id":187379,"date":"2021-07-05T06:31:39","date_gmt":"2021-07-05T06:31:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/?p=187379"},"modified":"2021-07-05T06:31:39","modified_gmt":"2021-07-05T06:31:39","slug":"20210705-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/information\/week\/20210705-3\/","title":{"rendered":"20210705 \u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"

2021<\/strong>\u5e74<\/strong>7<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>5<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCMAsia<\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a\uff1a<\/strong>7<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>5<\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/strong>9<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5916\u6c47\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>6<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>28<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>7<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>9<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u516d\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u7684\u6c47\u4ef7\u5728\u4e00\u5468\u5185\u57fa\u672c\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u6536\u76d8\u65f6\u56de\u656c\u90e8\u5206\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u62a592.19\u3002\u5728\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u6570\u636e\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ca\u5176\u6210\u5458\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u5f3a\u786c\u7acb\u573a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u80fd\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u4fdd\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ee7\u7eed\u770b\u6da8\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u6570\u636e\u8868\u73b0\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u5de9\u56fa\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u7f29\u51cf\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u57286\u670816\u65e5\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u610f\u5916\u53ec\u5f00\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\uff0c\u51e0\u540d\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6210\u5458\u547c\u5401\u6700\u65e9\u57282022\u5e74\u5e95\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9884\u8ba1\u4e2d\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6210\u5458\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u2022\u5361\u666e\u5170(Robert Kaplan)\u6700\u8fd1\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5f00\u59cb\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u5e73\u7a33\u8fc7\u6e21\u3002\u5361\u666e\u5170\u8fd8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u52bf\u5934\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7b26\u5408\u5f53\u524d\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5c3d\u65e9\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c<\/strong><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5546\u54c1\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>6<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>21<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>25<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9ec4\u91d1<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u5468\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>7<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>5<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>9<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672c\u5468\u5185\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u5173\u6ce8\u5173\u952e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002 \u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u60c5\u51b5\u4e5f\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u539f\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u77f3\u6cb9\u5b66\u4f1a(API)\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u4fe1\u606f\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40(EIA)\u7684\u6bcf\u5468\u5e93\u5b58\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u5468\u7a81\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>7<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>5<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>9<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u65f6\u95f4<\/strong><\/td>\n\u5e02\u573a<\/strong><\/td>\n\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/td>\n\u5b9e\u9645<\/strong><\/td>\n\u9884\u671f<\/strong><\/td>\n\u524d\u503c<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e00\uff0c<\/strong>7<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>5<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:30<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd\u7efc\u5408PMI\u6307\u6570 (\u516d\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n61.7<\/td>\n61.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:30<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fdMarkit\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI (\u516d\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n61.7<\/td>\n61.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e8c\uff0c<\/strong>7<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>6<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12:30<\/td>\n\u6fb3\u6d32<\/td>\n\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae (\u4e03\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.10%<\/td>\n0.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12:30<\/td>\n\u6fb3\u6d32<\/td>\n\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16:30<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd\u5efa\u7b51\u4e1aPMI (\u516d\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n63.5<\/td>\n64.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17:00<\/td>\n\u6b27\u76df<\/td>\n\u5fb7\u56fdZEW\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u6307\u6570 (\u4e03\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n75.4<\/td>\n79.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:00<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fdISM\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI (\u516d\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n63.5<\/td>\n64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e09\uff0c<\/strong>7<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>7<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:00<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fdJOLTs\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a (\u4e94\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n8.300M<\/td>\n9.286M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:00<\/td>\n\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/td>\n\u52a0\u62ff\u5927IVEY\u5b63\u8c03\u540ePMI (\u516d\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n64.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u56db\uff0c<\/strong>7<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
02:00<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8FOMC\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19:30<\/td>\n\u6b27\u76df<\/td>\n\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570<\/td>\n355K<\/td>\n355K<\/td>\n364K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23:00<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f53\u5468EIA\u539f\u6cb9\u5e93\u5b58\u53d8\u52a8(\u6876)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n-6.718M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e94\uff0c<\/strong>7<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>9<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14:00<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fdGDP\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n2.30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14:00<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e94\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n1.00%<\/td>\n-0.30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18:00<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u8d1d\u5229(Andrew Bailey)\u8bb2\u8bdd<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18:00<\/td>\n\u6b27\u76df<\/td>\n\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u62c9\u52a0\u5fb7(Christine Lagarde)\u8bb2\u8bdd<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\n\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/td>\n\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u53d8\u52a8(\u4eba) (\u516d\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n175.0K<\/td>\n-68.0K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2021\u5e747\u67085\u65e5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790 GCMAsia\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a\uff1a7\u67085\u65e5\u81f39\u65e5 \u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5916\u6c47\uff09\uff1a6\u670828\u65e5\u81f37\u67089\u65e5 \u7f8e\u56fd \u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u516d\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u7684\u6c47\u4ef7\u5728\u4e00\u5468\u5185\u57fa\u672c\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u6536\u76d8\u65f6\u56de\u656c\u90e8\u5206\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u62a592.19\u3002\u5728\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u6570\u636e\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ca\u5176\u6210\u5458\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u5f3a\u786c\u7acb\u573a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u80fd\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u4fdd\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ee7\u7eed\u770b\u6da8\u7f8e\u5143\u3002   \u5728\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5468\u4e8c\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6570\u636e\u7ed9\u5e02\u573a\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u6df1\u523b\u5370\u8c61\uff0c6\u6708CB\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\u8df3\u5347\u81f316\u4e2a\u6708\u9ad8\u4f4d\u4e3a127.3\uff0c\u4f18\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u7684119.0\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cADP\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u663e\u793a6\u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e3a692K\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u7684600K\u3002\u6210\u5c4b\u5f85\u5b8c\u6210\u9500\u552e\u6307\u6570\u4e5f\u660e\u663e\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4e3a8.0%\uff0c\u597d\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u7684-0.8%\u3002\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u4eba\u6570\u4e3a364K\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4f18\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u7684390K\u3002\u7136\u4e48\uff0c\u5468\u4e94\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u559c\u5fe7\u53c2\u534a\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u8bfb\u4e66\u4e3a850K\uff0c\u597d\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684700K\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ece5\u6708\u4efd\u76845.8%\u98d9\u5347\u52305.9%\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\u6da8\u5e45\u3002   \u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u6570\u636e\u8868\u73b0\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u5de9\u56fa\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u7f29\u51cf\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u57286\u670816\u65e5\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u610f\u5916\u53ec\u5f00\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\uff0c\u51e0\u540d\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6210\u5458\u547c\u5401\u6700\u65e9\u57282022\u5e74\u5e95\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9884\u8ba1\u4e2d\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6210\u5458\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u2022\u5361\u666e\u5170(Robert Kaplan)\u6700\u8fd1\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5f00\u59cb\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u5e73\u7a33\u8fc7\u6e21\u3002\u5361\u666e\u5170\u8fd8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u52bf\u5934\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7b26\u5408\u5f53\u524d\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5c3d\u65e9\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002 \u00a0 \u65e5\u672c \u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5143(USD\/JPY)\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u7ecf\u5386\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u6536\u4e8e 111.00\u3002\u603b\u4f53\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9e70\u6d3e\u610f\u5916\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u5173\u5207\u3002\u636e\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u9996\u90fd\u4e1c\u4eac\u7684\u5fb7\u5c14\u5854\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u75c5\u4f8b\u6fc0\u589e\uff0c\u4e00\u540d\u653f\u5e9c\u987e\u95ee\u79f0\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u201c\u975e\u5e38\u3001\u975e\u5e38\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u201d\uff0c\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8d1f\u9762\u524d\u666f\u3002   \u6b27\u6d32 \u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143(EUR\/USD)\u5728\u672c\u5468\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6536\u4e8e 1.1863\u3002 \u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143(EUR\/USD)\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\u3002 \u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u7684\u75b2\u8f6f\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5f3a\u52bf\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5fb7\u56fd\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u6570\u636e\u504f\u5411\u6b63\u9762\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u62b5\u6d88\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u8bae\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002   \u82f1\u56fd 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