{"id":212617,"date":"2021-11-08T07:41:27","date_gmt":"2021-11-08T07:41:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/?p=212617"},"modified":"2021-11-08T07:41:27","modified_gmt":"2021-11-08T07:41:27","slug":"20110811-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/information\/week\/20110811-3\/","title":{"rendered":"20110811 \u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"

2021<\/strong>\u5e74<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia<\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a\uff1a<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/strong>15<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5916\u6c47\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>11<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>1<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>5<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u5151\u4e00\u63fd\u5b50\u516d\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u4e3a 94.15\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u57fa\u8c03\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u83b7\u5f97\u770b\u8dcc\u52bf\u5934\u3002\u4ed6\u58f0\u79f0\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u538b\u529b\u201c\u9884\u8ba1\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u63a5\u8fd10%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5f00\u59cb\u7f29\u51cf\u6bcf\u6708\u503a\u5238\u8d2d\u4e70\u89c4\u6a21\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u6709\u9650\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u672c\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u7f29\u51cf\u5176\u6bcf\u6708 1,200 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u503a\u5238\u8d2d\u4e70\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u5236\u98d9\u5347\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u98d9\u5347\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e2d\u65ad\u76f8\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u67d0\u4e9b\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bd4\u592e\u884c\u9884\u671f\u7684\u8981\u957f\u3002\u5728\u5f3a\u52b2\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08MPC\uff09\u627f\u8bfa\u6bcf\u6708\u51cf\u5c11 100 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6bcf\u6708\u51cf\u5c11 50 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u673a\u6784\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u3002\u503a\u5238\u7f29\u51cf\u8ba1\u5212\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41\u901a\u91cf\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u523a\u6fc0\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u597d\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u590d\u82cf\u52bf\u5934\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u6839\u636e\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u4e3a 531K\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 450K\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd 10 \u6708\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e3a 4.6%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 4.7%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5143\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u632b\uff0c\u6536\u4e8e 113.40\u3002 \u968f\u7740\u907f\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002 \u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff08BoE\uff09\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u7684\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8f6c\u5411\u65e5\u5143\u7b49\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002 \u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u57fa\u8c03\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6269\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002 \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9009\u62e9\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9884\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u5c06\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5468\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u4e3a 1.1565\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u6210\u5458\u4f0a\u838e\u8d1d\u5c14\u65bd\u7eb3\u8d1d\u5c14(Isabel Schnable)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5979\u8ba4\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u9884\u8ba1\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u6700\u65e9\u4f1a\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u542f\u52a8\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u8fd8\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u5c06\u5728 2021 \u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u5e76\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728 2% \u7684\u76ee\u6807\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u52bf\u5934\u6709\u9650\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6839\u636e Markit Economics \u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c10 \u6708\u4efd\u5fb7\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570 (PMI) \u4ece\u4e4b\u524d\u7684 58.4 \u964d\u81f3 57.8\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u7684 58.2\u3002\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd1\u671f\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u74f6\u9888\u5bfc\u81f4\u5de5\u5382\u96be\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u6240\u9700\u539f\u6750\u6599\uff0c\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u653e\u7f13\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5468\u82f1\u9551\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u6536\u4e8e 1.3495\u3002 \u7531\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff08BoE\uff09\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u8d2c\u503c\u3002 \u5468\u56db\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c (BoE) \u5ba3\u5e03\u4e86\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728 0% \u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c06\u5176\u503a\u5238\u8d2d\u4e70\u8ba1\u5212\u7ef4\u6301\u5728 8,950 \u4ebf\u82f1\u9551\u3002 \u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u968f\u540e\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u544a\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u7531\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u62bc\u6ce8\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u63d0\u9ad8\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u592e\u884c\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 \u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9884\u8ba1 2022 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u82f1\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5c06\u5728 2023 \u5e74\u548c 2024 \u5e74\u964d\u81f3\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e 2% \u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u8fd8\u62c5\u5fc3 \u8be5\u5730\u533a\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u540e\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u3002 \u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u00b7\u8d1d\u5229 (Andrew Bailey) \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6700\u8fd1\u53d6\u6d88\u4e86\u5148\u524d\u7684\u4f11\u5047\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u4ece\u672a\u6765\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7ebf\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5546\u54c1\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>10<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>25<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>29<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9ec4\u91d1<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u907f\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u91d1\u4ef7\u5927\u5e45\u98d9\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u91d1\u8861\u76ce\u53f8 1817.85 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002 \u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5ba3\u5e03\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u904f\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u540e\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u3002 \u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u98d9\u5347\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u523a\u6fc0\u4e86\u9ec4\u91d1\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u51b2\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u907f\u98ce\u6e2f\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u4e0d\u4ec5\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\u4e5f\u63d0\u632f\u4e86\u9ec4\u91d1\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u5468\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>11<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>12<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672c\u5468\u5185\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u5173\u6ce8\u5173\u952e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3 CPI\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u539f\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u77f3\u6cb9\u5b66\u4f1a(API)\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u4fe1\u606f\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40(EIA)\u7684\u6bcf\u5468\u5e93\u5b58\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u5468\u7a81\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>11<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>12<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u65f6\u95f4<\/strong><\/td>\n\u5e02\u573a<\/strong><\/td>\n\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/td>\n\u5b9e\u9645<\/strong><\/td>\n\u9884\u671f<\/strong><\/td>\n\u524d\u503c<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e00\uff0c<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u65e0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e8c\uff0c<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>9<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18:00<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u6b27\u76df<\/td>\n\u5fb7\u56fdZEW\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u6307\u6570 (\u5341\u4e00\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n22.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fdPPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u5341\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.60%<\/td>\n0.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e09\uff0c<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>10<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3CPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u5341\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.40%<\/td>\n0.20%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n265K<\/td>\n269K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n281K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u56db\uff0c<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
08:30<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u6fb3\u6d32<\/td>\n\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3(\u4eba) (\u5341\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n50.0K<\/td>\n-138.0K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10:00<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u4e2d\u56fd<\/td>\n\u4e2d\u56fd\u89c4\u6a21\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5de5\u4e1a\u589e\u52a0\u503c\u5e74\u7387(%) (\u540c\u6bd4) (\u5341\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n3.10%<\/td>\n3.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15:00<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fdGDP\u5e74\u7387(%) (\u540c\u6bd4) (\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n6.80%<\/td>\n23.60%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15:00<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fdGDP\u5b63\u7387(%) (\u5b63\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n1.50%<\/td>\n5.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15:00<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u82f1\u56fd<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e5d\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.10%<\/td>\n0.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18:00<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u6b27\u76df<\/td>\n\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e94\uff0c<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>12<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23:00<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u7f8e\u56fd<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fdJOLTs\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a (\u4e5d\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n10.925M<\/td>\n10.439M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5f00\u59cb\u7f29\u51cf\u6bcf\u6708\u503a\u5238\u8d2d\u4e70\u89c4\u6a21\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u6709\u9650\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u672c\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u7f29\u51cf\u5176\u6bcf\u6708 1,200 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u503a\u5238\u8d2d\u4e70\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u5236\u98d9\u5347\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u98d9\u5347\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e2d\u65ad\u76f8\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u67d0\u4e9b\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bd4\u592e\u884c\u9884\u671f\u7684\u8981\u957f\u3002\u5728\u5f3a\u52b2\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08MPC\uff09\u627f\u8bfa\u6bcf\u6708\u51cf\u5c11 100 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6bcf\u6708\u51cf\u5c11 50 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u673a\u6784\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u3002\u503a\u5238\u7f29\u51cf\u8ba1\u5212\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41\u901a\u91cf\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u523a\u6fc0\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u3002   \u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u597d\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u590d\u82cf\u52bf\u5934\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u6839\u636e\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u4e3a 531K\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 450K\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd 10 \u6708\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e3a 4.6%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 4.7%\u3002 \u00a0 \u65e5\u672c \u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5143\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u632b\uff0c\u6536\u4e8e 113.40\u3002 \u968f\u7740\u907f\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002 \u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff08BoE\uff09\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u7684\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8f6c\u5411\u65e5\u5143\u7b49\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002 \u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u57fa\u8c03\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6269\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002 \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9009\u62e9\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9884\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u5c06\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002   \u6b27\u6d32 \u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5468\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u4e3a 1.1565\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u6210\u5458\u4f0a\u838e\u8d1d\u5c14\u65bd\u7eb3\u8d1d\u5c14(Isabel Schnable)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5979\u8ba4\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u9884\u8ba1\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u6700\u65e9\u4f1a\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u542f\u52a8\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u8fd8\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u5c06\u5728 2021 \u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u5e76\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728 2% \u7684\u76ee\u6807\u9644\u8fd1\u3002   \u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u52bf\u5934\u6709\u9650\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u3002   \u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6839\u636e Markit Economics \u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c10 \u6708\u4efd\u5fb7\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570 (PMI) \u4ece\u4e4b\u524d\u7684 58.4 \u964d\u81f3 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