{"id":309605,"date":"2023-04-10T08:42:59","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T08:42:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/?p=309605"},"modified":"2023-04-10T08:42:59","modified_gmt":"2023-04-10T08:42:59","slug":"20230410-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/information\/week\/20230410-3\/","title":{"rendered":"20230410 \u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"

2023<\/strong>\u5e74<\/strong>4<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>10<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

GCMAsia<\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a\uff1a<\/strong>4<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>10<\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/strong>14<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5916\u6c47\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>4<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>3<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>7<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u559c\u5fe7\u53c2\u534a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u5151\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u516d\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u516d\u5468\u627f\u53d7\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u629b\u552e\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u65704\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4ece2\u6708\u768463.4\u964d\u81f362.0\u3002\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u9884\u671f\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u8870\u9000\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u82b1\u8d39\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cISM\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u4e5f\u8fde\u7eed5\u4e2a\u6708\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4ece2\u6708\u768447.7\u964d\u81f346.3\u3002\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5927\u4e3e\u52a0\u606f\u5230\u8fbe5.0%\u540e\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0d\u613f\u8d37\u6b3e\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40(Bureau of Labor Statistics)\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0cJOLTS\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u4e5f\u964d\u81f3993.1\u4e07\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e24\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8868\u660e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5904\u4e8e\u6536\u7f29\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u6062\u590d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u5bf9\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u6709\u9650\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u4e00\u76f4\u5f88\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9884\u8ba1\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u5b57\u4e3a22.8\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e4b\u524d\u768424.6\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f4e\u4e8e\u56db\u5468\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e7323.7\u4e07\u4eba\u3002\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u4e5f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4e3a23.6\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f23.9\u4e07\u4eba\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d0.1%\u81f33.5%\u3002\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u4f11\u95f2\u548c\u533b\u9662\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u64a4\u51fa\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u91d1\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5143\u6536\u76d8\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u6536\u4e8e132.10\u3002\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4f01\u4e1a\u91c7\u53d6\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u5728\u52a0\u606f\u62d6\u7d2f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u4e5f\u964d\u81f32\u5e74\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7ee7\u7eed\u9762\u4e34\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u629b\u552e\u538b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4ee4\u4eba\u6cae\u4e27\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u907f\u9669\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u4e00\u76f4\u53d7\u5230\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u9752\u7750\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u6536\u76d8\u4e8e1.0910\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7efc\u5408\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6807\u666e\u5168\u7403(S&P Global)\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533aPMI\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u521b\u4e0b16\u4e2a\u6708\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u800c\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5219\u843d\u540e\u4e8e52.6\u548c52.7\uff0c\u4f46\u5747\u521b10\u4e2a\u6708\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u5b9e\u73b0\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51fa\u73b0\u663e\u8457\u6539\u5584\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI\u4ece52.7\u4e0a\u5347\u81f355.0\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u768455.6\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4e8e50\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u666e\u904d\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u4f7f\u5230\u6b27\u5143\u6301\u7eed\u5f97\u5230\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4eec\u7684\u9752\u7750\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u6301\u7eed\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u9551\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5468\u5ef6\u7eed\u6da8\u52bf\uff0c\u6536\u4e8e1.2430\u3002\u7efc\u5408PMI\u4e3a52.2\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u82f1\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u4ece49.3\u964d\u81f347.9\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u768448.0\u3002\u800c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8652.9\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f52.8\u3002\u82f1\u9551\u5347\u503c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u5728\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u548c\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u627f\u538b\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5546\u54c1\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>4<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>3<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>7<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9ec4\u91d1<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u91d1\u4ef7\u6536\u4e8e\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f82005.35\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6709\u6240\u63d0\u9ad8\u540e\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u53d7\u5230\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u9752\u7750\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u5143\u4ece2\u5e74\u4f4e\u70b9\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u4ece2030\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u56de\u5347\u3002\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u6536\u7d27\u4e3e\u63aa\u540e\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u6709\u671b\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7a81\u7834\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u6bcf\u5468\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>4<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>10<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>14<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5173\u6ce8\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570(CPI)\u548cFOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6d88\u606f\u4e5f\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

\u672c\u5468\u7a81\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>4<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>10<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>14<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u65f6\u95f4<\/strong><\/td>\n\u5e02\u573a<\/strong><\/td>\n\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/td>\n\u5b9e\u9645<\/strong><\/td>\n\u9884\u671f<\/strong><\/td>\n\u524d\u503c<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e00\uff0c<\/strong>4<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>10<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5168\u5929<\/td>\nGBP<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd – \u590d\u6d3b\u8282<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5168\u5929<\/td>\nEUR<\/td>\n\u5fb7\u56fd – \u590d\u6d3b\u8282<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5168\u5929<\/td>\nCHF<\/td>\n\u745e\u58eb – \u590d\u6d3b\u8282<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5168\u5929<\/td>\nAUD<\/td>\n\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a – \u590d\u6d3b\u8282<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5168\u5929<\/td>\nNZD<\/td>\n\u65b0\u897f\u5170 – \u590d\u6d3b\u8282<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e8c\uff0c<\/strong>4<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u65e0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e09\uff0c<\/strong>4<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>12<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3CPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e09\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.40%<\/td>\n0.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u672a\u5b63\u8c03CPI\u5e74\u7387(%) (\u540c\u6bd4) (\u4e09\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n5.20%<\/td>\n6.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fdCPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e09\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.30%<\/td>\n0.40%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21:00<\/td>\nGBP<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u8d1d\u5229(Andrew Bailey)\u8bb2\u8bdd<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:00<\/td>\nCAD<\/td>\n\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22:00<\/td>\nCAD<\/td>\n\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n4.50%<\/td>\n4.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23:00<\/td>\nCAD<\/td>\n\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u56db\uff0c<\/strong>4<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>13<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2:00<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8FOMC\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3:15<\/td>\nGBP<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u8d1d\u5229(Andrew Bailey)\u8bb2\u8bdd<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9:30<\/td>\nAUD<\/td>\n\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3(\u4eba) (\u4e09\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n20.0K<\/td>\n64.6K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14:00<\/td>\nGBP<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fdGDP\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e8c\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.20%<\/td>\n0.30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14:00<\/td>\nGBP<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e8c\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.30%<\/td>\n-0.40%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14:00<\/td>\nGBP<\/td>\n\u82f1\u56fd3\u4e2a\u6708\u6eda\u52a8GDP\u6708\u7387(%) (\u4e8c\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14:00<\/td>\nEUR<\/td>\n\u5fb7\u56fdCPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e09\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.80%<\/td>\n0.80%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n205K<\/td>\n228K<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fdPPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e09\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n0.10%<\/td>\n-0.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5468\u4e94\uff0c<\/strong>4<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>14<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e09\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n-0.30%<\/td>\n-0.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20:30<\/td>\nUSD<\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e09\u6708)<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n-0.40%<\/td>\n-0.40%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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