{"id":81596,"date":"2019-08-05T07:09:21","date_gmt":"2019-08-05T07:09:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/?p=81596"},"modified":"2019-08-05T07:09:21","modified_gmt":"2019-08-05T07:09:21","slug":"20190805-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/information\/week\/20190805-3\/","title":{"rendered":"20190805 \u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"

2019<\/strong>\u5e74<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>05<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia<\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>05<\/strong>\u81f3<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>09<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5916\u6c47\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>7<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>29<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong> \u2013 8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>2<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u559c\u5fe7\u53c2\u534a\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u89e6\u53ca\u4e24\u5e74\u9ad8\u70b998.65\u7f8e\u5143\u540e\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5728CB\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u548c\u6210\u5c4b\u5f85\u5b8c\u6210\u9500\u552e\u6570\u636e\u7b49\u4e50\u89c2\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u83b7\u5f97\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u5747\u4e3a\u4e50\u89c2\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e3a135.7\u548c2.8%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u7684125.0\u548c0.5%\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u6491\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u5347\u81f3\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5206\u522b\u4e3a16.4\u4e07\u548c3.7%\uff0c\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u76f8\u6bd4\u4ecd\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u8de8\u522b10\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8(fed)\u4e0a\u5468\u56db\u51b3\u5b9a\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u2022\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14(Jerome Powell)\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d0.25%\u7684\u5411\u4e0b\u8c03\u6574\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f9d\u7136\u51fa\u8272\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5173\u6ce8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u4eca\u5e74\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u5468\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u6d77\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e24\u5929\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u5bf9\u4ef7\u503c3000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u613f\u610f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u5173\u7a0e\u63d0\u9ad8\u523025%\u3002\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6700\u7ec8\u6fc0\u6012\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7acb\u5373\u6307\u8d23\u4e2d\u56fd\u79f0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u65bd\u989d\u5916\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u51c6\u5907\u91c7\u53d6\u53cd\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u4ee5\u5224\u65ad\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143(USD\/JPY)\u4e0a\u5468\u5ef6\u7eed\u8dcc\u52bf\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u5728106.60\u65e5\u5143\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728-0.10%\u7684\u8d85\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u4ece1.4%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f31.3%\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u52bf\u5934\u53d8\u5f97\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u91cd\u7533\u5982\u679c\u79bb\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u201c\u592a\u8fdc\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u65f6\u671f\u7ee7\u7eed\u6323\u624e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u6beb\u4e0d\u72b9\u8c6b\u5730\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u51c6\u5907\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u6210\u529f\u6446\u8131\u4e86\u5927\u5b97\u629b\u552e\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143 (EUR\/USD)\u4e0a\u5468\u5ef6\u7eed\u8dcc\u52bf\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6491\u7740\u6b27\u5143\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u62a51.1105\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\u516c\u5e03\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5927\u91cf\u4e70\u5165\u6b27\u5143\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u4e0a\u5468\u672a\u80fd\u5ef6\u7eed\u6da8\u52bf\uff0c\u56e0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8f6c\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u52a0\u5267\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u6210\u529f\u6536\u590d\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u635f\u5931\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u672c\u5468\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u9551\u5151\u7f8e\u5143(GBP\/USD)\u4e0a\u5468\u5168\u9762\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u62a51.2160\u3002\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c(BoE) \u4e3b\u5e2d\u53d1\u8868\u9e3d\u6d3e\u8a00\u8bba\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d7\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u629b\u552e\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u521d, \u82f1\u56fd\u65b0\u4efb\u9996\u76f8\u9c8d\u91cc\u65af\u00b7\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u91cd\u7533, \u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u8d23\u4efb\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u6ca1\u6709\u786c\u8131\u6b27\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u82e5\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u57282019\u5e7410\u670831\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u60b2\u89c2\u6d88\u606f\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u629b\u552e\u82f1\u9551\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4e5f\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57280.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u56fd\u5185\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u7565\u6709\u52a0\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u72b6\u51b5\u5e76\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5546\u54c1\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>7<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>29<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong> \u20138<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>2 <\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u6210\u529f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u4e0a\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u6536\u76d8\u62a5\u6bcf\u91d1\u8861\u76ce\u53f81440.55\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u968f\u7740\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7ee7\u7eed\u5c06\u8d44\u4ea7\u8f6c\u5411\u9ec4\u91d1\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9ec4\u8272\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u4eba\u6c14\u4f9d\u7136\u770b\u6da8\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f813000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u786c\u8131\u6b27\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4e5f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u62c9\u9ad8\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u9ec4\u8272\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u786c\u8131\u6b27\u5c06\u9020\u6210\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u4e0e\u82f1\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u548c\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u963b\u788d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u5468\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>5<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>9<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8ISM\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u4ee5\u53caPPI\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u5468\u7a81\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>5<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>9<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u661f\u671f\u4e00<\/strong>,8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>05<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd <\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>Composite PMI (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd <\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fdMarkit\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fdISM\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e8c<\/strong>, 8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>06<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u897f\u5170<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u5b63\u7387(%) (\u5b63\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6)<\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae (\u516b\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fdJOLTs\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a (\u516d\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e09<\/strong>, 8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>07<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u897f\u5170 <\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u592e\u884c\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u5fb7\u56fd\u5b63\u8c03\u540e\u5de5\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u516d\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927IVEY\u5b63\u8c03\u540ePMI (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u897f\u5170<\/strong> – <\/strong>\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u8054\u50a8\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e<\/p>\n

\u65b0\u897f\u5170<\/strong>– <\/strong>\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae
\n\u65b0\u897f\u5170<\/strong>– <\/strong>\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u8054\u50a8\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u56db<\/strong>, <\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>08<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32 <\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u6b27\u592e\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u62a5\u544a<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e94<\/strong>, <\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>09<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u65e5\u672cGDP\u5b63\u7387(%) (\u5b63\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fdGDP\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u516d\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3PPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fdPPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u53d8\u52a8(\u4eba) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u5b63\u5ea6\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u7f72(IEA)\u6708\u62a5<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2019\u5e748\u670805\u65e5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790   GCMAsia\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a8\u670805\u81f38\u670809\u65e5 \u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5916\u6c47\uff09\uff1a7\u670829\u65e5 \u2013 8\u67082\u65e5 \u7f8e\u56fd \u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u559c\u5fe7\u53c2\u534a\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u89e6\u53ca\u4e24\u5e74\u9ad8\u70b998.65\u7f8e\u5143\u540e\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002   \u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5728CB\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u548c\u6210\u5c4b\u5f85\u5b8c\u6210\u9500\u552e\u6570\u636e\u7b49\u4e50\u89c2\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u83b7\u5f97\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u5747\u4e3a\u4e50\u89c2\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e3a135.7\u548c2.8%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u7684125.0\u548c0.5%\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u6491\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u5347\u81f3\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5206\u522b\u4e3a16.4\u4e07\u548c3.7%\uff0c\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u76f8\u6bd4\u4ecd\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002   \u8de8\u522b10\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8(fed)\u4e0a\u5468\u56db\u51b3\u5b9a\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u2022\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14(Jerome Powell)\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d0.25%\u7684\u5411\u4e0b\u8c03\u6574\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f9d\u7136\u51fa\u8272\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5173\u6ce8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u4eca\u5e74\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\u3002   \u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u5468\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u6d77\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e24\u5929\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u5bf9\u4ef7\u503c3000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u613f\u610f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u5173\u7a0e\u63d0\u9ad8\u523025%\u3002\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6700\u7ec8\u6fc0\u6012\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7acb\u5373\u6307\u8d23\u4e2d\u56fd\u79f0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u65bd\u989d\u5916\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u51c6\u5907\u91c7\u53d6\u53cd\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u4ee5\u5224\u65ad\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u3002     \u00a0 \u65e5\u672c \u65e5\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143(USD\/JPY)\u4e0a\u5468\u5ef6\u7eed\u8dcc\u52bf\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u5728106.60\u65e5\u5143\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728-0.10%\u7684\u8d85\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u4ece1.4%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f31.3%\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u52bf\u5934\u53d8\u5f97\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u91cd\u7533\u5982\u679c\u79bb\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u201c\u592a\u8fdc\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u65f6\u671f\u7ee7\u7eed\u6323\u624e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u6beb\u4e0d\u72b9\u8c6b\u5730\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u51c6\u5907\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u6210\u529f\u6446\u8131\u4e86\u5927\u5b97\u629b\u552e\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002 \u00a0 \u6b27\u6d32 \u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143 (EUR\/USD)\u4e0a\u5468\u5ef6\u7eed\u8dcc\u52bf\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6491\u7740\u6b27\u5143\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u62a51.1105\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\u516c\u5e03\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5927\u91cf\u4e70\u5165\u6b27\u5143\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u4e0a\u5468\u672a\u80fd\u5ef6\u7eed\u6da8\u52bf\uff0c\u56e0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8f6c\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u52a0\u5267\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u6210\u529f\u6536\u590d\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u635f\u5931\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u672c\u5468\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002     \u82f1\u56fd \u82f1\u9551\u5151\u7f8e\u5143(GBP\/USD)\u4e0a\u5468\u5168\u9762\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u62a51.2160\u3002\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c(BoE) \u4e3b\u5e2d\u53d1\u8868\u9e3d\u6d3e\u8a00\u8bba\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d7\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u629b\u552e\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u521d, \u82f1\u56fd\u65b0\u4efb\u9996\u76f8\u9c8d\u91cc\u65af\u00b7\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u91cd\u7533, 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