{"id":82712,"date":"2019-08-12T05:38:25","date_gmt":"2019-08-12T05:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/?p=82712"},"modified":"2019-08-12T05:38:25","modified_gmt":"2019-08-12T05:38:25","slug":"20190812-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/information\/week\/20190812-9\/","title":{"rendered":"20190812 \u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"

2019<\/strong>\u5e74<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>12<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia<\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a\uff1a<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>12<\/strong>\u81f3<\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>16<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5916\u6c47\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>5<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong> \u2013 9<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u7f8e\u5143\u5168\u7ebf\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f9b\u5e94\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u4f1a(ISM)\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u6570\u636e\u4ee5\u53caJOLTs\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u7b49\u60b2\u89c2\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u51fa\u73b0\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u52bf\u5934\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u9879\u6570\u636e\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u8bfb\u6570\u5206\u522b\u4e3a53.7\u548c734.8\u4e07\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u768455.5\u548c745.0\u4e07\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u53d7\u5230\u7f8e\u4e2d\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u56f0\u6270\u3002\u8fd9\u63d0\u632f\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8(Fed)\u5c06\u5728\u5373\u5c06\u53ec\u5f00\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6491\u7ecf\u6d4e\u514d\u4e8e\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u629b\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u9ec4\u91d1\u548c\u65e5\u5706\u7b49\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u62d6\u7d2f\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e8e9\u67081\u65e5\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u505c\u6b62\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d2d\u4e70\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u62a5\u590d\u7f8e\u56fd\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u968f\u4e4b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8c08\u5224\u4ee3\u8868\u4ecd\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u4e8e9\u6708\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u4e3e\u884c\u53e6\u4e00\u8f6e\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u81ea\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u7206\u53d1\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u635f\u5bb3\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u91cd\u7533\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5e94\u8be5\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u3001\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u7acb\u5373\u505c\u6b62\u91cf\u5316\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u8fd9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf92019\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6b63\u5173\u6ce8\u66f4\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u5224\u65ad\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u5706\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\uff08USD\/JPY\uff09\u4e0a\u5468\u5ef6\u7eed\u8dcc\u52bf\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u5728105.65\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u5347\u7ea7\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53d1\u5e03\u60b2\u89c2\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u83b7\u5f97\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c(GDP)\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u8bfb\u6570\u4e3a0.4%\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb60.1%\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u6301\u4e86\u65e5\u5143\u3002\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u4f9d\u7136\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8d1f\u5229\u7387\u4e3a-0.10%\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6491\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u51fa\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4f4e\u8ff7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143(EUR\/USD)\u6210\u529f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e0a\u5468\u6da8\u52bf\uff0c\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u62a51.1200\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u63d0\u632f\u4e86\u6b27\u5143\u7b49\u5176\u5b83\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e70\u5165\u6b27\u5143\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u4ecd\u6df1\u9677\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u592e\u884c(ECB)\u4ecd\u5728\u8270\u96be\u5730\u5bfb\u627e\u8d1f\u5229\u7387\u548c\u5b9a\u6027\u5bbd\u677e\u7b49\u66f4\u4e3a\u9884\u9632\u6027\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u672c\u5468\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u9551\u5151\u7f8e\u5143(GBP\/USD)\u4e0a\u5468\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u4e0b\u8dcc\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u4e8e1.2020\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u9996\u76f8\u9c8d\u91cc\u65af\u2022\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a(Boris Johnson)\u5f3a\u8c03\u65e0\u8bba\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u4ed6\u90fd\u5c06\u572810\u670831\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u5b8c\u6210\u8131\u6b27\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u95ee\u9898\u4f9d\u7136\u56f0\u6270\u7740\u82f1\u56fd\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u4eba\u6c14\u4f9d\u7136\u770b\u8dcc\u3002\u81ea\u90a3\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u7684\u58f0\u660e\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u679c\u82f1\u56fd\u6ca1\u6709\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u8bae\u9000\u51fa\u6b27\u76df\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6291\u5236\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u82f1\u56fd\u5730\u533a\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6076\u5316\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u82f1\u9551\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u82f1\u56fdGDP\u548c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u5747\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e3a-0.2%\u548c-0.2%\uff0c\u800c\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u7740\u662f0.0%\u548c-0.1%\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u73b0\u5728\u5c06\u5173\u6ce88\u670824\u65e5\u81f326\u65e5\u7684\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\uff08G7\uff09\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u5c06\u5728\u4f1a\u89c1\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u5fb7\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\uff0c\u4ee5\u8fa8\u522b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5546\u54c1\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>5<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong> \u20139 <\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u4ecd\u5728\u7a84\u5e45\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u62a5\u6bcf\u91d1\u8861\u76ce\u53f81,496.10\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\u6325\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u9700\u6c42\u4f9d\u7136\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u7b49\u5f85\u672c\u5468\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570(CPI) \u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u5230\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u5468\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>12<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>16<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u6838\u5fc3\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\u548c\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u7b49\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u5468\u7a81\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>12<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>8<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>16<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u661f\u671f\u4e00<\/strong>,8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>12<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e8c<\/strong>, 8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>13<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u5fb7\u56fdCPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u542b\u7ea2\u5229\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u5de5\u8d44\u5e74\u7387(%) (\u516d\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u7533\u8bf7\u4eba\u6570(\u4eba) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708ILO\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u53d8\u52a8(\u4eba) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u516d\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u5fb7\u56fdZEW\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u6307\u6570 (\u516b\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3CPI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e0<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e09<\/strong>, 8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>14<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u89c4\u6a21\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5de5\u4e1a\u589e\u52a0\u503c\u5e74\u7387(%) (\u540c\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u5fb7\u56fdGDP\u5b63\u7387(%) (\u5b63\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fdCPI\u5e74\u7387(%) (\u540c\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u6b27\u5143\u533aGDP\u5b63\u7387(%) (\u5b63\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u56db<\/strong>, <\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>15<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3(\u4eba) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u65e5\u672c\u5de5\u4e1a\u4ea7\u51fa\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u516d\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d39\u57ce\u8054\u50a8\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6307\u6570 (\u516b\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e03\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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\u65e0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e94<\/strong>, <\/strong>8<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>16<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

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\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570 (\u516b\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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