{"id":95176,"date":"2019-11-04T07:34:26","date_gmt":"2019-11-04T07:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/?p=95176"},"modified":"2019-11-04T07:34:26","modified_gmt":"2019-11-04T07:34:26","slug":"20191104-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gcmasia.co\/analysis\/information\/week\/20191104-3\/","title":{"rendered":"20191104 \u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0<\/strong>2019<\/strong>\u5e74<\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>04<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>\u6bcf\u5468\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

GCMAsia\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a\uff1a11\u670804\u81f308\u65e5<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5916\u6c47\uff09\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>10<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>28<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong> \u2013 11<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>1<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u5468\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u76d8\u62a596.90\u3002\u6574\u4f53\u7a7a\u5934\u52bf\u5934\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u8868\u73b0\u9eef\u6de1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u8fd1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u8054\u5408\u4f1a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8c18\u5546\u4f1a(CB)\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\u8dcc\u81f3128.0\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3a125.9\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u4e3a126.3\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(Federal reserve)\u4e0a\u5468\u4e09\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u4ece2.00%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f31.75%\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e0a\u5468\u56db\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u629b\u552e\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cISM\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570(PMI)\u4e3a48.3\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u768448.9\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u2022\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5728\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u5f3a\u786c\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u4f46\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u548c\u6210\u5c4b\u5f85\u5b8c\u6210\u9500\u552e\u60c5\u51b5\u90fd\u597d\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd10\u6708\u4efd\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u4e3a128k\uff0c\u597d\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u768489\u5343\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u6570\u636e\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5b83\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5173\u6ce8\u5373\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u5224\u65ad\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u5373\u5c06\u7b7e\u7f72\u201c\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u201d\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u5bf9\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fbe\u6210\u5168\u9762\u957f\u671f\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u8868\u793a\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u7ee7\u7eed\u5347\u7ea7\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e(Donald Trump)\u540e\u6765\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u5728\u667a\u5229\u4f1a\u6664\u53d6\u6d88\u4e0d\u4e45\u540e\uff0c\u5c06\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u5730\u70b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fbe\u6210\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7f13\u89e3\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4ecd\u5173\u6ce8\u7740\u5f53\u524d\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u5934\u6761\u65b0\u95fb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e24\u56fd\u53ea\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5168\u9762\u6027\u7684\u8fbe\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5706(USD\/JPY)\u4e0a\u5468\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6536\u62a5\u4e8e108.21\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u5151\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u906d\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u91cf\u629b\u552e\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u56f4\u7ed5\u5f53\u524d\u7f8e\u4e2d\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e5f\u523a\u6fc0\u4e86\u5bf9\u65e5\u5143\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\uff08EUR\/USD\uff09\u4e0a\u5468\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u6536\u76d8\u62a51.1160\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5468\u56db\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u5ef6\u957f\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u81f32020\u5e741\u670831\u65e5\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9\u65e0\u534f\u8bae\u8131\u6b27\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d88\u9000\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u4e3a6k\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u76842k\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5bf9\u7ec4\u5408\u6269\u5927\u5176\u6536\u76ca\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u9551\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\uff08GBP\/USD\uff09\u9762\u4e34\u4e0b\u8dcc\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u6536\u76d8\u62a51.2935\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u540c\u610f\u5c06\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u5ef6\u957f\u81f32020\u5e741\u670831\u65e5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u629b\u552e\u538b\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u7eea\u4fc3\u4f7f\u9c8d\u91cc\u65af\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a(Boris Johnson) \u542f\u52a8\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u65e5\u671f\u5b9a\u4e8e12\u670812\u65e5\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u572812\u670812\u65e5\u82f1\u56fd\u8bae\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u9009\u540e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u8131\u6b27\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6301\u7eed\u56f0\u6270\u82f1\u9551\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e\uff08\u5546\u54c1\uff09<\/u><\/strong>10<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>28<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong> \u2013 11<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>1<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

GOLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5468\u4ecd\u5728\u7a84\u5e45\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u5c3e\u76d8\u62a5\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f8\u7ea61510.21\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u5e03\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u6570\u636e\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u91d1\u5c5e\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5927\u5e45\u629b\u552e\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u80a1\u5e02\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ec4\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f9b\u5e94\u7ba1\u7406\u534f\u4f1a(ISM)\u516c\u5e0310\u6708\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u840e\u7f29\u540e\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u4ece\u4f4e\u4f4d\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(Fed)\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u8f6f\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5927\u4f17\u5546\u54c1\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u652f\u6491\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u5468\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>11<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>04<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>08<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u8bf8\u5982\u82f1\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\u548c\u8131\u6b27\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u53d1\u5c55\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u5468\u7a81\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a<\/u><\/strong>11<\/u><\/strong>\u6708<\/u><\/strong>0<\/u><\/strong>4<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5\u81f3<\/u><\/strong>08<\/u><\/strong>\u65e5<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u661f\u671f\u4e00<\/strong>,11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>04<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32<\/strong> – <\/strong>\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6708\u7387(%) (\u6708\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u4e5d\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u6b27\u6d32<\/strong> – <\/strong>\u5fb7\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u6708\u7387(%) (\u5341\u6708)
\n\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> –<\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u5efa\u7b51\u4e1aPMI (\u5341\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65e0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e8c<\/strong>, 11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>05<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae (\u5341\u4e00\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u7efc\u5408PMI\u6307\u6570 (\u5341\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013<\/strong> \u82f1\u56fdMarkit\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI (\u5341\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fdISM\u975e\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI (\u5341\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fdJOLTs\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a (\u4e5d\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6fb3\u6d32<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e09<\/strong>, 11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>06<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u897f\u5170<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u5b63\u7387(%) (\u5b63\u5ea6\u73af\u6bd4) (\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6)<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/strong>\u2013 <\/strong>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927IVEY\u5b63\u8c03\u540ePMI (\u5341\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u79cb\u5b63\u9884\u7b97\u62a5\u544a<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u661f\u671f\u56db<\/strong>, <\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>07<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae (\u5341\u4e00\u6708)<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u901a\u80c0\u62a5\u544a<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u516c\u5e03\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981
\n\u82f1\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5361\u5c3c(Mark Carney)\u8bb2\u8bdd<\/p>\n

 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u661f\u671f\u4e94<\/strong>, <\/strong>11<\/strong>\u6708<\/strong>08<\/strong>\u65e5<\/strong><\/td>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u53d8\u52a8(\u4eba) (\u5341\u6708)
\n<\/u>\u7f8e\u56fd<\/strong> \u2013 <\/strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570 (\u5341\u4e00\u6708)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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  \u5728\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u5373\u5c06\u7b7e\u7f72\u201c\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u201d\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u5bf9\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fbe\u6210\u5168\u9762\u957f\u671f\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u8868\u793a\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u7ee7\u7eed\u5347\u7ea7\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e(Donald 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\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5706(USD\/JPY)\u4e0a\u5468\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6536\u62a5\u4e8e108.21\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u5151\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u906d\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u91cf\u629b\u552e\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u56f4\u7ed5\u5f53\u524d\u7f8e\u4e2d\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e5f\u523a\u6fc0\u4e86\u5bf9\u65e5\u5143\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u3002   \u6b27\u6d32 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