24 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remains pressured by trade war, government shutdown.
Dollar index slumped against its basket of six major currency pairs as concerns over global growth slowdown and ongoing government shutdown continue to weight on the market. While the US government closed for the 34th day, investors began to worry about the impact that would be brought to the dollar market if the term was extended. Longer government shutdowns will cause higher costs and expenses by the government while increasing overall government debt. In addition, government shutdown has slowed the partial release of certain economic indicators and this will affect Fed’s rate hike which was originally scheduled for March this year, thus risks decreasing tarnishing the appeal of dollar. Besides that, ongoing U.S – Sino trade war continues to add further concern as US have cancel trade planning meeting with China recently and it currently still remains the most dominant factor for investor sentiment. Dollar index was down 0.05% to 95.72 as of writing. Meanwhile, USDCAD rose 0.05% to 1.3348 as of writing following the decline in retail sales. According to reports, retail sales disappoints with the reading of -0.9% against -0.6%, its sharpest drop since December and it may affect future plans of rate hike from Bank of Canada.
In the commodities market, crude oil price have fell 0.05% to 52.35 per barrel as of writing following increased inventories level. According to reports from American Petroleum Institute, weekly crude oil stocks rose to 6.550M compared to previous data reading -0.560M. The increase in inventory has wiped out investor’s confidence in oil, thus dragging the oil sentiment down. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.06% to 1283.56 as demand for safe haven asset continues to be supported by dollar weakness and global growth fears.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | EUR -German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 51.5 | 51.3 | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 213K | 220K | – |
| 22.45 | USD – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 53.8 | 53.5 | – |
| 22.45 | USD – Services PMI (Jan) | 54.4 | 54.1 | – |
| 00:00 (25th) | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.683M | -2.683M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 95.60. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest dollar to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.60, 95.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3100. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1.3015.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2930
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1400. MACD which display bias bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 109.90. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 109.25.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.40
Support level: 109.25, 108.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7170. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7100.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7100, 0.7030
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6780. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6850, 0.6915
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6715
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.3325. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 1.3325.
Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3500
Support level: 1.3325, 1.3245
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.9950. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9995
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking below previous support level 52.70. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 51.60.
Resistance level: 52.70, 53.90
Support level: 51.60, 50.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded in the middle-level of the channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to be traded lower towards the upward trend line and bottom-level of the channel near 1280.00.
Resistance level: 1288.00, 1295.00
Support level: 1280.00, 1272.00