11 February 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Euro fell amid virus fear and weak data.
The Euro which traded against all its peers have fell to 4-month low and likely to continue its decline following fears of the coronavirus dragging the region’s economic growth and recent weak data. At the moment, investors are concerned that the economy in the Eurozone will slump further as the coronavirus continue to spread rapidly with the death toll now above 900. The ongoing crisis also cause some of the major forecasters such as JPMorgan Chase $ Co have lowered their forecast on the currency. Besides that, investors are also worried on the political issue in Germany where the leader of the German conservative party CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK), announced her resignation as the party chief and said she will not be running to replace Chancellor Angela Merkel at the next federal election in autumn of 2021. On data wise, investor confidence in the euro also fell to 5.2 from the previous reading of 7.6 in January. As of writing, EUR/USD fell 0.03% to 1.0908 while dollar index rose 0.17% to 98.68.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remain weak and fell 0.09% to $49.76 per barrel at the time of writing amid market continue to react towards the uncertainty from Russia. Moscow remains skeptical on OPEC plans to reduce 600,000 bpd of supply as Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated that he needs more time to decide because it had reasons to believe U.S. crude production growth could slow while global demand appeared solid. In the other hand, gold price rose 0.04% to $1572.43 a troy ounce as market await further confirmation from Chairman Powell testimony.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22.00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
23.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17.30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) | -0.3% | – | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) | -1.7% | 0.5% | – |
| 23.00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) | 6.800M | 7.000M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4：Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 98.35. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 98.90.
Resistance level: 98.90, 99.25
Support level: 98.35, 97.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2955. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3095
Support level: 1.2830, 1.2700
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.0885. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0885.
Resistance level: 1.0990, 1.1085
Support level: 1.0885, 1.0795
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat while currently testing the support level 109.70. However, MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level 109.70.
Resistance level: 110.20, 110.65
Support level: 109.70, 109.25
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6675. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6765.
Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6600
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6380. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6445.
Resistance level: 0.6445, 0.6500
Support level: 0.6380, 0.6340
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3320. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3260, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat near the support level 0.9755. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9830, 0.9915
Support level: 0.9755, 0.9695
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 49.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 52.60, 54.65
Support level: 49.55, 48.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1563.45. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the current support level 1563.45.
Resistance level: 1588.05, 1613.35
Support level: 1563.45, 1542.15