GCM Asia – Latest Analysis

291020 Afternoon Session Analysis

29 October 2020                Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Dollar soars amid U.S election uncertainty, COVID-19

During late Asian session, the U.S dollar which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have skyrocketed as safe-haven demand boosted by worsening COVID-19 and uncertainty towards upcoming U.S election. As of now, former Vice President, Joe Biden continue to lead in the polls over President Donald Trump which led traders to cautiously bet on his victory and a “blue wave” outcome where Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. Despite that, Donald Trump is also seen catching up in some part of swing states which could slowly even the playing field and become a close battle. With U.S election just day away, the uncertainty remains in the market until the results is out, thus support the demand for safe-haven. At the same time, worsening COVID-19 conditions also help boosting the demand as massive second wave coronavirus continue to threaten Europe. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.03% to 93.38.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose extend losses and plunged 0.19% to $37.44 per barrel at the time of writing as rising supply and weak demand overwhelmed market sentiment. On supply front, U.S crude oil stockpiles rose more than expected with the reading of 4.32 million increase compared to the expectation of 1.23 million. At the same time, surging cases in U.S and EU which prompted EU to re-impose lockdowns recently also continue to add into weak demand expectation, which further pressuring the commodity. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.09% to $1877.90 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar strength and ongoing liquidation of assets in order to prevent margin call.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

21:30                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:55 EUR – German Unemployment Change (Oct) -8K -5K
20:30 USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -31.5% 31.9%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 787K 775K
20:45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00%
22:00 USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 8.8% 4.5%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 92.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 93.50.

 

Resistance level: 93.50, 94.10

Support level: 92.70, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2935. MACD which illustrates bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3010.

 

Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3065

Support level: 1.2935, 1.2875

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1765.

 

Resistance level: 1.1765, 1.1810

Support level: 1.1705, 1.1675

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 104.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 104.50.

 

Resistance level: 104.50, 104.90

Support level: 104.10, 103.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trend line. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical rebound toward the resistance level at 0.7075.

 

Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7140

Support level: 0.7010, 0.6930

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6660. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6610.

 

Resistance level: 0.6660, 0.6725

Support level: 0.6610, 0.6555

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3315. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3245.

 

Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3420

Support level: 1.3245, 1.3175

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9090.

 

Resistance level: 0.9115, 0.9150

Support level: 0.9090, 0.9065

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 37.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 37.45.

 

Resistance level: 37.95, 38.55

Support level: 37.45, 36.95

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1876.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1882.85.

 

Resistance level: 1882.85, 1890.05

Support level: 1876.55, 1871.65

291020 Morning Session Analysis

29 October 2020                Morning Session Analysis

New lock-down measures, Euro dipped into 1-week low.

The pair of EUR/USD slumped significantly to one-week lows amid news of lockdowns in Germany and France in order to curb a sharp rise in Covid-19 infections, which dialled down the market optimism toward the economic progression from the European region while spurring bearish momentum on the currency. According to Reuters, Germany had decided to shut bars and restaurants for a month and France prepared to tighten controls on movement. Under the new French measures which come into force on Friday, people will be required to stay in their homes except to buy essential goods, seek medical attention or exercise for up to an hour a day. Besides, France’s employee will be permitted to go to work if their employers deem it impossible for them to do the job from home while the school will stay open. A series of new measures to fight the pandemic from the European region had prompted the world risky assets dive in to dip amid market participants expected that such measures would drive the global economy this year into its deepest recession in generations. As of writing, EUR/USD depreciated by 0.02% to 1.1745.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.10% to $37.60 per barrel as of writing. The oil market dipped significantly on yesterday amid the worried over the latest lockdown and spiking numbers of the coronavirus from the world had spurred negative prospect for the oil demand in future. On the other hand, the gold market slumped 0.05% to $1878.70 per troy ounces as of writing as investors started to selloff the gold commodity while changing it into cash in order to prevent margin call from bank following the global equity market crash on yesterday.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Outlook Report

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Press Conference

21:30                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:55 EUR – German Unemployment Change (Oct) -8K -5K
20:30 USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -31.5% 31.9%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 787K 775K
20:45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00%
22:00 USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 8.8% 4.5%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.45. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 93.45, 94.00

Support level: 93.00, 92.45

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2940. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3010.

 

Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3065

Support level: 1.2940, 1.2895

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1765. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1765, 1.1810

Support level: 1.1705, 1.1665

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 104.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 105.25, 106.70

Support level: 104.25, 103.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7030. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7085.

 

Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7135

Support level: 0.7030, 0.7005

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6655. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6655, 0.6690

Support level: 0.6620, 0.6580

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3315. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3420

Support level: 1.3255, 1.3205

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9090. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9150, 0.9195

Support level: 0.9090, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 36.95. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 37.85.

 

Resistance level: 37.85, 38.95

Support level: 36.95, 36.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level a 1874.55. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1891.60, 1907.85

Support level: 1874.55, 1853.90

281020 Afternoon Session Analysis

28 October 2020                                Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Euro fell following news of lockdown.

During late Asian session, the Euro which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have experience tremendous pressure and plunged following reports of potential lockdown in France to control the surge of coronavirus cases. Following latest development, France has reported 523 deaths on Tuesday, its highest number since April. Other EU countries such as Italy and Greece also witness their infection cases surged to new record. French President is scheduled to give a televised address on Wednesday evening. It’s uncertain what the speech is about for now. But reports are flowing around that the government is exploring imposition of lockdown from midnight on Thursday. At the same time, Germany also considered plans for a measured lockdown as its health care system is also close to breaking point. At the time of writing, EUR/USD slips 0.17% to 1.1775.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains pressured and fell 0.67% to $38.81 per barrel as of writing following COVID-19 and oversupply fears. The coronavirus pandemic continue to weigh heavily on the market sentiment where some countries such as Europe and U.S pushing their recovery outlook even further with surging cases. At the same time, fears of oversupply due to Libya restart oil field and recent data from API also exert further pressure on the commodity. On the other hand, gold price remains stable and edge higher 0.03% to $1907.61 a troy ounce at the time of writing following worsening COVID-19 continue to support safe-haven demand.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:15                     CAD                                        BoC Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
22:00 CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
22:30 USD – Crude Oil Inventories -1.001M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 92.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 93.50.

 

Resistance level: 93.50, 94.10

Support level: 92.70, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3065. MACD which illustrates bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3010.

 

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3125

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2935

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1810. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1765.

 

Resistance level: 1.1810, 1.1860

Support level: 1.1765, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 104.50. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 104.10.

 

Resistance level: 104.50, 104.90

Support level: 104.10, 103.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat near the resistance level at 0.7140. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering into the market.

 

Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7205

Support level: 0.7075, 0.7010

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6725. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6660.

 

Resistance level: 0.6725, 0.6785

Support level: 0.6660, 0.6610

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3175. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3245.

 

Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3175, 1.3095

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9090. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.9090.

 

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9115

Support level: 0.9065, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 38.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 38.55.

 

Resistance level: 39.30, 39.85

Support level: 38.55, 37.95

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1903.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1910.80.

 

Resistance level: 1910.80, 1919.80

Support level: 1903.55, 1896.60

 

 

281020 Morning Session Analysis

28 October 2020                Morning Session Analysis

Dollar surged amid hopes upon the coronavirus economic relief faded.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies pairs extend its gains on yesterday amid diminishing hopes upon the coronavirus economic relief from the United States. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged on Tuesday that a coronavirus economic relief deal would likely come after the 3rd November 2020 U.S. election as Republicans in the U.S. Senate and Congressional Democrats still unable to achieve any consensus. On the economic data front, the US Dollar received further bullish momentum over the backdrop of the positive economic data from the U.S. region. According to Census Bureau, the U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders for last month came in at 0.8%, much better than the market forecast at 0.4%. Though, the gains experienced by the US Dollar was limited following the worse-than-expected U.S. CB Consumer Confidence data was released. The Conference Board reported that the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence had notched down from the previous reading of 101.3 to 100.9, which worse than the market expectation at 102.0. Nonetheless, the overall trend for the Dollar Index still remained subdued on yesterday as market participants are still scrutinizing the latest updates with regards of the U.S. Election and the U.S. economic stimulus plan in order to receive further trading signal. As of writing, the Dollar Index surged 0.05% to 92.97.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.38% to $38.75 per barrel as of writing. The oil market extends its losses following the U.S. oil stockpiles rose sharply last week, which spurring concerns about the strength of oil demand at the midst of the coronavirus crisis. According to American Petroleum Institute (API), the U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil stock had rose significantly from the previous reading of 0.584M to 4.577M. On the other hand, the gold market slumped 0.18% to $1904.50 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:15                     CAD                                        BoC Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
22:00 CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
22:30 USD – Crude Oil Inventories -1.001M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 93.00, 93.45

Support level: 92.50, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently near the support level at 1.3010. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2940

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1765. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1810, 1.1855

Support level: 1.1765, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 104.35. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 104.70, 105.10

Support level: 104.35, 104.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7135. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7085.

 

Resistance level: 0.7135, 0.7175

Support level: 0.7085, 0.7030

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6720. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level ta 0.6665.

 

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6765

Support level: 0.6665, 0.6615

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3155. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3080

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9090. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9150

Support level: 0.9035, 0.9005

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 38.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 39.35, 40.65

Support level: 38.40, 36.95

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1891.60. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1917.65, 1939.20

Support level: 1891.60, 1874.55

 

 

271020 Afternoon Session Analysis

27 October 2020                                Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Yen rose following rising U.S – China tension.

The Japanese Yen which traded against the dollar and other currency pair have rose during late Asian session amid rising tension between the U.S and China as well as concerns over COVID-19 supporting the demand for safe-haven market. On the coronavirus front, several countries such as Russia, France, Italy and U.S continue to set new records for the number of daily COVID-19 cases. As of today, COVID-19 cases have passed through 43.4 million globally according to data from John Hopkins University. At the same time, tensions between U.S and China begin to mount as U.S approve a $2.4 billion sales of anti-ship missiles to Taiwan. In retaliation, China announced that it will impose sanctions on U.S companies and individual. The worsening relationship between the U.S and China also caused investors to turn their backs on riskier assets, thus shifting their portfolio into safe-haven market such as Japanese Yen. At the time of writing, USD/JPY slips 0.10% to 104.69.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains weak and fell 0.28% to $38.64 per barrel as of writing following rising output by Libya. According to reports, Libya is set to open its last oil field to push daily oil output by 1 million barrel. On top of that, the commodity price also continue to be pressured by fragile demand outlook which continue to be crippled by the rising cases of coronavirus. On the other hand, gold price gains 0.35% to $1908.85 a troy ounce at the time of writing following market uncertainty and dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Core Durable Goods ORders (MoM) (Sep) 0.6% 0.4%
20:30 USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 101.8 102.5

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 92.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 93.50.

 

Resistance level: 93.50, 94.10

Support level: 92.70, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3010. MACD which illustrates diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3065.

 

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3125

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2935

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1810. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.1860.

 

Resistance level: 1.1860, 1.1925

Support level: 1.1810, 1.1765

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 104.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 104.50.

 

Resistance level: 104.90, 105.15

Support level: 104.50, 104.10

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat near the resistance level at 0.7140. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering into the market.

 

Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7205

Support level: 0.7075, 0.7010

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6660. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6725.

 

Resistance level: 0.6725, 0.6785

Support level: 0.6660, 0.6610

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3175.

 

Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3175, 1.3095

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9065. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.9065.

 

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9115

Support level: 0.9065, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 38.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 39.30.

 

Resistance level: 39.30, 39.85

Support level: 38.55, 37.95

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1903.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1910.80.

 

Resistance level: 1910.80, 1919.80

Support level: 1903.55, 1896.60

 

271020 Morning Session Analysis

27 October 2020                Morning Session Analysis

US Dollar surged on risk-off sentiment.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies pairs surged on yesterday amid the risk-off sentiment in the FX market following the Covid-19 cases from the United States region hit a record-high. According to Bloomberg, the coronavirus infections from the U.S. was adding more than 85,000 people on yesterday. Meanwhile, some of the Europe countries had also imposed a new lockdown restriction in order to curb the spreading of the Covid-19 infections. According to Reuters, Spain announced a new state of emergency and Italy has ordered restaurants and bars to shut by 6 p.m. Such sentiment had diminished the risk appetite in the FX market, which prompting investors to shift their portfolio toward the safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar. Besides, the lack of progress with regards of the U.S. economic stimulus plans had also spurred further bullish momentum for the US Dollar. Nonetheless, the gain of the US Dollar was limited over the backdrop of the bearish housing data from the US region on yesterday. According to Census Bureau, the U.S. New Home Sales came in at only 959K, fared worse than expectation at 1,025K while dialling down the market optimism toward the economic progression from the United States. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.32% to 93.00.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.10% to $38.65 per barrel as of writing. The oil market extends its losses amid the resurgence of the Covid-19 cases in the world, which spurring negative prospect for the crude oil demand. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.02% to $1902.20 per troy ounces as of writing due to the appreciation of the US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Core Durable Goods ORders (MoM) (Sep) 0.6% 0.4%
20:30 USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) 101.8 102.5

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 93.00, 93.50

Support level: 92.50, 91.75

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently near the support level at 1.2995. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3155

Support level: 1.2995, 1.2940

 

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1800. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1875, 1.1945

Support level: 1.1800, 1.1750

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently near the support level at 104.70. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 105.10, 105.45

Support level: 104.70, 104.35

 

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7130. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7105.

 

Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155

Support level: 0.7105, 0.7075

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6645.

 

Resistance level: 0.6685, 0.6725

Support level: 0.6645, 0.6610

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3205. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3080

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9030. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9150.

 

Resistance level: 0.9150, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9030, 0.8910

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 39.05. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 39.50, 41.45

Support level: 38.05, 38.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1897.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1910.55.

 

Resistance level: 1910.55, 1929.55

Support level: 1897.70, 1884.10

 

261020 Afternoon Session Analysis

26 October 2020                                Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Dollar rebound amid virus spurred safe-haven demand.

During late Asian session, the dollar which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have regained support and rebound as worsening coronavirus in U.S and Europe and lack of progress in U.S stimulus leading traders in a cautious mood. In coronavirus front, the U.S reported more than 83,000 coronavirus cases two days in a row, surpassed previous deadly record of roughly 77,300 cases on July 16. At the same time, the surging cases in Europe have also cause some countries such as Italy to ordered restaurants and bar to shut down by 6 p.m. On the other hand, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday that she expected a White House response on Monday regarding the latest stimulus spending plan. Recently, a senior administration official said the stimulus deal wasn’t dead, but could have been made at times over the past 10 days. The statement accused that Pelosi’s suggestion of compromise had been mostly done for show. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.14% to 92.84.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 1.23% to $39.18 per barrel as of writing amid worsening demand outlook continue to weigh on the sentiment. Market confidence towards the black commodity remains weak due to drastic increase in coronavirus cases despite with the recent news of an FDA approval for remdesivir. Next, gold price slips 0.17% to $1898.29 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar regain support.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:00 EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 93.4 93.0
22:00 USD – New Home Sales (Sep) 1,011K 1,025K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 92.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 93.55.

 

Resistance level: 93.55, 94.65

Support level: 92.70, 91.75

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3005. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3500

Support level: 1.3005, 1.2775

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1880. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1760.

 

Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.1995

Support level: 1.1760, 1.1615

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded flat while currently testing near the resistance level 105.10. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the recent formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 105.10, 105.80

Support level: 104.25, 103.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level 0.7105. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7200, 0.7340

Support level: 0.7105, 0.7005

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6655. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6655.

 

Resistance level: 0.6725, 0.6775

Support level: 0.6655, 0.6595

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel while traded flat near the support level 1.3105. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.3240.

 

Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3105, 1.2995

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent retracement from resistance level 0.9085. However, MACD which display bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards back the level 0.9085.

 

Resistance level: 0.9085, 0.9190

Support level: 0.9000, 0.8935

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 39.00. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level 39.00.

 

Resistance level: 41.55, 43.95

Support level: 39.00, 36.55

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from MA lines. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower towards the support level 1879.05.

 

Resistance level: 1918.90, 1970.55

Support level: 1879.05, 1847.70

261020 Morning Session Analysis

26 October 2020                Morning Session Analysis

Pound slumped amid bearish economic data.

Pound Sterling slumped on last Friday over the backdrop of a string of downbeat economic data from the UK region. According to Markit Economics, the U.K. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) had notched down significantly from the previous reading of 55.7 to 52.9, worse than the market forecast at 55.6. Similarly, the U.K. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and U.K. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at only 53.3 and 52.3, which fared worse than the market forecast at 54.3 and 55.0 respectively. As these crucial economic data had fared bearish reading, which dialled down the market optimism toward the economic progression in United Kingdom while spurring significant selloff for the Pound Sterling. Besides that, the resurgent number of the coronavirus contagions from the UK and uncertainty with regards of the Brexit issues had also dragged down the appeal of the Pound Sterling. Nonetheless, the losses experienced by the Pound Sterling was limited amid positive retail sales data on last Friday. According to Office for National Statistics, the U.K. Retail Sales for last month had improved significantly from 0.9% to 1.5%, which better than expectation at 0.4%. As of writing, the GBP/USD depreciated by 0.04% to 1.3042.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 1.46% to $39.12 per barrels as of writing. The oil market edged lower amid the fears of the spiking numbers of the coronavirus infections had provided negative prospect for the oil demand. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.25% to $1896.45 per troy ounces amid market participants expected the U.S. coronavirus stimulus plan will be passed only after the 3rd November 2020 U.S. election.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:00 EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 93.4 93.0
22:00 USD – New Home Sales (Sep) 1,011K 1,025K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently near the support level at 92.55. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 93.00, 93.50

Support level: 92.55, 91.75

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3065. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair toe tend its losses toward support level at 1.2995.

 

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3155

Support level: 1.2995, 1.2885

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1875. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1875, 1.1945

Support level: 1.1800, 1.1750

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 104.70. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 105.10, 105.45

Support level: 104.35, 104.70

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7105. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7200, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7105, 0.7030

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6685. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6685, 0.6725

Support level: 0.6645, 0.6610

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3155. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3205

Support level: 1.3080, 1.2990

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9030. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9150, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9030, 0.8910

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout above the previous support level at 39.50. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 38.05.

 

Resistance level: 39.50, 41.45

Support level: 38.05, 38.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1909.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1883.25.

 

Resistance level: 1909.45, 1929.55

Support level: 1883.25, 1854.50

 

231020 Afternoon Session Analysis

23 October 2020                Afternoon Session Analysis

Pound plummets as no-deal Brexit remains high.

During late Asian session, the pound sterling which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have fell as experts warned the display of brinkmanship from the U.K on the negotiation may triggered an accidental no-deal Brexit risk. Following latest development, EU Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier is seeking to intensify talks with his British counterpart David Frost on Thursday to find a solution to key sticking points state aid and fisheries. As U.K determine to take control over access to its waters rather than stick with EU policy, fisheries remained the as the key issue that stalling the progress of a trade deal. With just months to go until the transition period ends, the U.K. appears unwilling to allow talks to run past the year-end deadline. The tough stance from UK could risk an accidental no-deal Brexit as the clock ticks down toward the end of the year, thus weighing on the current sentiment and dragging the currency price lower. At the time of writing, GBP/USD fell 0.08% to 1.3068

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price gains 0.32% to $40.69 per barrel as of writing amid optimism on U.S stimulus and potential output cut extension from Russia. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated that the two sides were nearing an economic stimulus package, boosting expectations that demand for crude oil could improve. At the same time, market also continue to react positively towards Russia’s willingness to ease further output if necessary. On the other hand, gold price plunged 0.09% to $1906.31 a troy ounce at the time of writing following the dollar strength and rebound from its seven-week low.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep) 0.8% 0.4%
16:00 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 56.4 55.1
16:00 EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 93.4 93.8
16:30 GBP – Composite PMI (Oct) 55.7 55.6
16:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 54.1 54.3
16:30 GBP – Services PMI (Oct) 56.1 55.0

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 92.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 93.50.

 

Resistance level: 93.50, 94.75

Support level: 92.60, 91.65

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3060. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3165, 1.3245

Support level: 1.3060, 1.2975

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1790. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1830, 1.1865

Support level: 1.1790, 1.1750

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently near the support level at 104.50. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 105.95, 106.95

Support level: 104.50, 103.10

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7125. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it succe4ssfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7175

Support level: 0.7065, 0.7010

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6675. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6710

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6600

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3190. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3190, 1.3250

Support level: 1.3095, 1.2990

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9085. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9185, 0.9230

Support level: 0.9040, 0.8995

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 39.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 41.30.

 

Resistance level: 41.30, 43.05

Support level: 39.65, 38.60

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trend line. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1910.65, 1929.45

Support level: 1881.25, 1859.10

231020 Morning Session Analysis

23 October 2020               Morning Session Analysis

 

Dollar rebound amid likelihood of stimulus aid remained uncertain.

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies ticked up after hitting the lowest level in seven weeks as market participants turned sceptical of a possible deal which costing trillions of dollars. In the recent talk, negotiators were making progress over sealing a new stimulus plan, aiming to be launched before the US Presidential Election, said by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Despite, even if the stimulus package successfully breakthrough the impasses between Democrats and Republican, it is highly unlikely that House of Senate will allow the plan to be implemented as the Republican are dominating majority of the votes in Senate level while they have repeatedly rejected sort of trillion dollar plan. As of now, Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mc Connell still insisting that he does not want brings large stimulus bill to the Senate floor before the election. Besides, an upbeat labour data has managed to further uplift the gains of dollar yesterday. According to the Department of Labor, US Initial Jobless Claims was came in at 787K, lower than the economist forecast of 870K, reflecting a lower number of American filing for unemployment insurance claims, yet they are still awaiting for further financial assistance from new round of stimulus aid.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.02% to $40.58 per barrel as the possibility of extension on OPEC’s oil production cut plan heightened. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia does not rule out the possibility that OPEC+ could extend its current 7.7 million barrels cut per day into next year. Besides, gold price rose 0.08% to $1905.65 per troy ounce amid uncertainty of US stimulus aid.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep) 0.8% 0.4%
16:00 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 56.4 55.1
16:00 EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 93.4 93.8
16:30 GBP – Composite PMI (Oct) 55.7 55.6
16:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 54.1 54.3
16:30 GBP – Services PMI (Oct) 56.1 55.0

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend it gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 93.00.

 

Resistance level: 93.00, 93.55

Support level: 92.50, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3080. MACD which illustrates diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2985.

 

Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3175

Support level: 1.2985, 1.2865

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1810. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 1.1810.

 

Resistance level: 1.1855, 1.1890

Support level: 1.1810, 1.1765

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 104.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.15.

 

Resistance level: 105.15, 105.50

Support level: 104.70, 104.35

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7140. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7100.

 

Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7160

Support level: 0.7100, 0.7005

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6640.

 

Resistance level: 0.6685,0.6740

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3155.

 

Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3200

Support level: 1.3105, 1.3055

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9085. MACD which display bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.9085.

 

Resistance level: 0.9085, 0.9110

Support level: 0.9055, 0.9000

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 40.85. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 40.45.

 

Resistance level: 40.85, 41.40

Support level: 40.45, 39.95

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1897.50.

 

Resistance level: 1915.30, 1930.00

Support level: 1897.50, 1879.80

221020 Afternoon Session Analysis

22 October 2020                Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar reversing loses while eyes on U.S stimulus.

During late Asian session, the dollar which measured its value against a basket of six major currency pair have slowly recoup its losses and rebound as the market continue to focus on the U.S congress development on passing the latest stimulus. Recently, the dollar sank to its lowest level since September 2 after U.S President Donald Trump and House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi have made positive remarks that increasing the hopes of U.S stimulus before Nov 3. However, that optimism is now slowly fading due to opposition from Senate Republicans which reduces the chances of the stimulus being passed before election. Pelosi also stated that while she remains optimistic, she also admitted that the stimulus is highly unlikely to be passed before the U.S heading for polls. Following the latest development, the greenback manages to limit its losses. Meanwhile, market will continue to focus on further development and upcoming presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.19% to 92.73.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price extends losses and plunged 0.50% to $39.75 per barrel at the time of writing following weak demand outlook. With COVID-19 infections in the U.S and Europe continue to hit daily record, lockdowns and travel clampdown from China once again could diminished the fuel demand, which weigh on the oil price. On top of that, scepticism on stimulus package also added further to the worsening outlook as President Donald Trump accused Democrats of holding up a compromise deal. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.55% to $1913.95 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid rebound in dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:25                  UK                       BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 898K 860K
22:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Sep) 6.00M 6.30M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 92.60. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 94.50, 94.75

Support level: 92.60, 91.65

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3165. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3070.

 

Resistance level: 1.3165, 1.3215

Support level: 1.3070, 1.2975

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement form the resistance level at 1.1865. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1830.

 

Resistance level: 1.1865, 1.1910

Support level: 1.1830, 1.1790

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 104.30. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 105.15, 106.60

Support level: 104.30, 103.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7110. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7065.

 

Resistance level: 0.7110, 0.7150

Support level: 0.7065, 0.7010

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6640. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6710

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6600

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3190. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3190, 1.3250

Support level: 1.3095, 1.2990

 

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9040. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9085.

 

Resistance level: 0.9085, 0.9130

Support level: 0.9040, 0.8995

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 39.65. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 41.30, 43.05

Support level: 39.65, 38.60

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level ta 1910.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1929.45, 1952.45

Support level: 1910.70, 1892.65

221020 Morning Session Analysis

22 October 2020               Morning Session Analysis

 

Pound skyrocketed amid optimism of Brexit’s talk.

Pound sterling which acting as the major currencies in the FX market was managed to extend its gains while hitting the highest level in seven weeks amid Brexit talk set to resume, lifting up the market optimism toward a deal could be sealed before the end of transition period. According to Bloomberg, negotiator from both sides are ready to have further formal negotiation on today while holding an aim to secure a deal by mid of November. This decision was came after a crucial call between Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost and EU counterpart Michel Barnier. Moreover, both sides were working hard in securing a deal as to avoid disruptive finale to the Brexit that would deteriorate the economy health UK. Nonetheless, it is clear that a significant gap still remains between EU and UK in the most difficult areas such as fisheries and level of competitive playing field. Despite a little change of hard tone was seem from both sides, yet it is seemingly that a compromise would not be achieved in the short run. During Asian early trading session, the pair of GBP/USD retraced by 0.07% to 1.3135.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.35% to $39.90 per barrel following a lower-than-expected draw in US inventories level. According to EIA, US crude oil inventories level has reduced -1.001M barrel, missing the economist forecast at -1.021M, this disappointing data has dragged down the appeal of this black commodity market. Besides, gold price dropped by 0.15% to $1921.00 per troy ounce after hitting the highest level in 10 days amid rebound of dollar index.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                     Market                 Event

17:25                 UK                     BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 898K 860K
22:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Sep) 6.00M 6.30M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from support level at 92.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend it rebound toward the resistance level at 93.00.

 

Resistance level: 93.00, 93.55

Support level: 92.50, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3175. MACD which illustrates diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3080.

 

Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3080, 1.2985

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1855. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1810.

 

Resistance level: 1.1855, 1.1890

Support level: 1.1810, 1.1765

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 104.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 104.70.

 

Resistance level: 104.70, 105.15

Support level: 104.35, 104.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7100. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7160

Support level: 0.7100, 0.7005

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6640. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6640.

 

Resistance level: 0.6685,0.6740

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3155. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3155.

 

Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3200

Support level: 1.3105, 1.3055

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9055. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9085.

 

Resistance level: 0.9085, 0.9110

Support level: 0.9055, 0.9000

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 39.95. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 39.05.

 

Resistance level: 39.95, 40.45

Support level: 39.05, 37.90

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1930.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1916.30.

 

Resistance level: 1930.00, 1940.00

Support level: 1916.30, 1897.50

211020 Afternoon Session Analysis

21 October 2020                Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie recoup losses following Retail Sales data.

During late Asian session, the Aussie dollar which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have manage to bounced off from one-month low and rose amid recent release of Australia Retails Sales added into the broad risk-on mood. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales data came in lesser than market expectation of 1.5% against -4.4% expectation. Despite that, the data suggest that the consumer activities in the Australia have recovered and climbed back into positive territory, thus benefiting the value of the Aussie. At the same time, market risk-on mood also further backed by comments from U.S House Speaker Nancy Pelosi where she remains “optimistic” about the progress in discussion with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin regarding to the U.S stimulus deal. At the time of writing, AUD/USD rose 0.46% to 0.7077.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains stable and edge higher 0.68% to $41.43 per barrel as of writing as market remain convinced and optimistic that the U.S lawmakers may break a month-long impasse and negotiate a potential aid package to boost economic recovery which would help increased the consumption of oil and fuel. On the other hand, gold price soars 0.63% to $1918.02 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid dollar weakness which driven by optimism in U.S stimulus.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

15:30                  EUR                    ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – CPI (YoY)(Sep) -0.4% 0.5%
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Aug) -0.4% 0.9%
20:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM)(Sep) 0.0%
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -3.818M -1.021M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 93.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 92.55.

 

Resistance level: 93.00, 93.50

Support level: 92.55, 92.15

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2885. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2995.

 

Resistance level: 1.2995, 1.3060

Support level: 1.2885, 1.2815

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 1.1865. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1865, 1.1940

Support level: 1.1755, 1.1620

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 105.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 105.10.

 

Resistance level: 105.45, 105.80

Support level: 105.10, 104.70

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7030. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7105.

 

Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7195

Support level: 0.7030, 0.6950

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6570. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6675.

 

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6725

Support level: 0.6570, 0.6520

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3080. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3205

Support level: 1.3080, 1.2990

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9055. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9125

Support level: 0.9055, 0.9005

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 41.50. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 41.50, 43.05

Support level: 39.50, 38.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1920.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1920.45, 1971.70

Support level: 1854.50, 1798.35

 

211020 Morning Session Analysis

21 October 2020                                Morning Session Analysis

 

Dollar plunged while markets continue eye on stimulus talk.

Dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies faced huge threw-off pressure while hitting the one month low level after House of Speaker Nancy Pelosi revealed that she was still optimistic toward the stimulus plan can be unveiled by early next month. Earlier this week, a limit of 48 hours was set by Nancy Pelosi where an agreement must be reached between US two biggest parties if they want to pass a stimulus relief bill before US Presidential Election Day. In the latest round of talk, White House and Congressional Democrats claimed enough progress in the talks regarding to the new stimulus aid plan, while promising that they will speak again on Wednesday. Besides, Deputy Chief of Staff Drew Hammill have also said that both parties were ‘serious’ to seal a plan, while both parties are moving closer to a consensus. Despite, he also added that there are still some disagreements on certain affair to be resolved in the upcoming talks. During Asian early trading session, dollar index dropped by 0.37% to 93.10.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.60% to $41.40 per barrel following surprise build in US oil inventories. According to API, US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was came in at 0.584M, unexpectedly higher than the economist forecast at -1.900M, lifting up the market worries over the supply glut while economy is still being haunted by the pandemic of Covid-19. Besides, gold price rose 0.31% to $1911.90 a troy ounce amid optimism of US stimulus‘s talk.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

15:30                  EUR                    ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – CPI (YoY)(Sep) -0.4% 0.5%
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Aug) -0.4% 0.9%
20:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM)(Sep) 0.0%
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -3.818M -1.021M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 93.50. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses toward the support level at 92.70.

 

Resistance level: 93.50, 94.90

Support level: 92.70, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2935. MACD which illustrates bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3010.

 

Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3065

Support level: 1.2935, 1.2875

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1810. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1860.

 

Resistance level: 1.1860, 1.1925

Support level: 1.1810, 1.1765

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 105.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 105.15.

 

Resistance level: 105.75, 106.05

Support level: 105.15, 104.80

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7075. Due to lack of signal, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering into the market.

 

Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7140

Support level: 0.7010, 0.6930

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward higher level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6610, 0.6660

Support level: 0.6555, 0.6515

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3140. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after its candle successfully closed below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3025

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9090. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo technical rebound in short term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9120

Support level: 0.9050, 0.9005

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 41.40. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 41.40, 42.15

Support level: 40.90, 40.40

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1897.45. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1915.75.

 

Resistance level: 1915.75, 1939.60

Support level: 1897.45, 1876.85

201020 Afternoon Session Analysis

20 October 2020                Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie plunged following dovish RBA minutes.

The Australian dollar which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs continue to extend its drop during late Asian session following dovish statement from RBA minutes. According to the minutes, RBA members have discussed an considered for more additional monetary easing to support jobs and overall economy. RBA’s Assistant Governor Christopher Kent stated that there is still some room to cut the cash rate further and compress short-term rates. The central bank is expected to reduce its interest rate to a new record low of 0.1% from the current 0.25%. He also added that the rates could move into negative territory in case of further RBA easing. Following the dovish note from RBA, the Aussie dollar break support and continue its path to the downside. At the time of writing, AUD/USD drop 0.32% to 0.7043.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price slips 0.44% to $40.70 per barrel as of writing following COVID-19 concerns intensified. COVID-19 cases have soared over 40 million on Monday, adding further concern that whether the oil demand is able to recover fully. At the same time, news of Libya rising output also continue to added pressure for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price also fell 0.24% to $1899.68 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid a new U.S stimulus remains elusive which weigh on the yellow metal.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Building Permits (Sep) 1.476M 1.520M
04:30

(21st)

CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -5.422M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 93.20. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 93.55.

 

Resistance level: 93.55, 94.00

Support level: 93.20, 92.85

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2995. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2885.

 

Resistance level: 1.2995, 1.3060

Support level: 1.2885, 1.2815

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1765. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1810, 1.1855

Support level: 1.1765, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 105.55. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 105.30.

 

Resistance level: 105.55, 105.75

Support level: 105.30, 105.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7030. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7195

Support level: 0.7030, 0.6950

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6570. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6725

Support level: 0.6570, 0.6520

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3205. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3085

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9085. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9295

Support level: 0.9085, 0.9010

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 41.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 39.50.

 

Resistance level: 41.45, 43.05

Support level: 39.50, 38.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1909.45. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1889.85.

 

Resistance level: 1909.45, 1928.25

Support level: 1889.85, 1854.50