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020223 Afternoon Session Analysis

2 February 2023                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Pound sterling rose amid US Dollar weakened.

The pound sterling rose to the highest level since June 2022 level as the dollar slumped after the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the FOMC press conference. In the communique, Jerome Powell mentioned that US inflation has cooled, and the market started to expect that future interest rate hike decisions will come in peace or remain unchanged. As a result, the US dollar depreciated and boosted other currencies that pair with USD, such as the pound sterling. Apart from this, the pound sterling uptrend was also boosted by investors’ expectations, whereby the Bank of England (BoE) will likely have a 50-basis point rate hike in the upcoming BoE monetary policy committee meeting. According to the latest inflation data announced by the UK office for national statistics, the country’s inflation rate was at a 10.5% level in December, while the BoE target of a 2% inflation rate. An aggressive rate hike plan could affect the UK economy to enter into a recession that would weigh on the Pound. As of writing, GBP/USD appreciated 0.10% to $1.2388.

In the commodity market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.71% to $76.95 per barrel as of writing as a weaker Greenback made the US oil price cheaper for other currency holders, and boosted the oil demand. On the other hand, the gold price raised by 1.28% to $1951.04 per troy ounce as of writing over the weakening of the US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:00                     GBP                                        BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

21:15                     EUR                                       ECB Monetary Policy Statement

21:45                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

22:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

23:15                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 3.50% 4.00%
21:15 EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Feb) 2.00% 2.50%
21:15 EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility 2.75%
21:15 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb) 2.50% 3.00%
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 186K 200K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 101.20. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggested the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 99.40.

Resistance Level: 101.20, 103.15

Support Level      : 99.40, 97.75

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2345. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggested the pair extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2470.

Resistance Level:1.2470, 1.2645

Support Level: 1.2345, 1.2200

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.0975. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggested the pair extend it gains towards the resistance level at 1.1150.

Resistance Level: 1.1150, 1.1275

Support Level      : 1.0975, 1.0850

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 128.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggested the pair extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support at 128.60.

Resistance Level: 131.25, 134.15

Support Level      : 128.60, 126.30

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7125. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggested the pair extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7260.

Resistance Level: 0.7260, 0.7385

Support Level      : 0.7125, 0.6985

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6460. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggested the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6555.

Resistance Level: 0.6555, 0.6675

Support Level      : 0.6460, 0.6355

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3265. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggested the pair extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance Level: 1.3400, 1.3505

Support Level      : 1.3265, 1.3155

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9110. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggested the pair will extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9040.

Resistance Level: 0.9110, 0.9225

Support Level      : 0.9040, 0.8940

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil was traded lower while currently testing the upward trendline. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggested the commodity will extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the trendline.

Resistance Level: 81.80, 86.15

Support Level      : 76.10, 71.50

 

GOLD, Daily: Gold was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1944.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggested the commodity will extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1985.90.

Resistance Level: 1985.90, 2042.60

Support Level      : 1944.60, 1900.00

020223 Morning Session Analysis

2 February 2023                 Morning Session Analysis

US Dollar dived following the Fed’s smaller hikes.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies slumped on Thursday after Fed’s Chairman acknowledged that the inflationary risk was easing. Earlier of the day, the US central bank decided to raise its interest rate by 25 basis point to 4.75%, which was the second consecutive lower rate hike after the four 75 basis point hikes in a row. In the Press Conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell claimed that there was a significant effects in bringing down inflation pressure, whereby hinting that Fed would likely to step back from its aggressive contractionary monetary policy in the March meeting. Though, it was noteworthy that the Fed might continue to increase its rates as they were committed to restore price stability, according to the speech of Fed in Press Conference. Thus, the likelihood of another rate hike might not be excluded. On the economic data front, a series of downbeat economic data has spurred further bearish momentum toward US Dollar. The data such as US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has disappointed market participants, which highlighting the side effects that driven by prior aggressive rate hike by Fed. As of writing, the Dollar Index dropped by 0.94% to 100.95.

 

In the commodity market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.79% to $77.04 per barrel as of writing following the smaller rate hike by Fed has offset the market concern upon recession. On the other hand, the gold price raised by 1.28% to $1951.04 per troy ounce as of writing over the weakening of US Dollar.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:00                     GBP                                        BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

21:15                     EUR                                       ECB Monetary Policy Statement

21:45                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

22:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

23:15                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 3.50% 4.00%
21:15 EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Feb) 2.00% 2.50%
21:15 EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility 2.75%
21:15 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb) 2.50% 3.00%
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 186K 200K

 

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 102.05, 103.20

Support level: 100.55, 99.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2415, 1.2535

Support level: 1.2265, 1.2120

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1040, 1.1165

Support level: 1.0890, 1.0740

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 130.35, 132.60

Support level: 126.70, 123.65

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7355

Support level: 0.7140, 0.7050

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 0.6560, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6460, 0.6360

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3500

Support level: 1.3155, 1.2980

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses if successfully breakout the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9235, 0.9400

Support level: 0.9065, 0.8920

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 77.25, 81.50

Support level: 73.90, 70.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 1960.00, 1986.85

Support level: 1939.10, 1918.90

010223 Afternoon Session Analysis

1 February 2023                 Afternoon Session Analysis

New Zealand unemployment climbs, Kiwi dollar falls afterward.

The Kiwi dollar which is traded as one of the major currencies globally slipped after a downbeat labor market report was released. According to the data from Statistics New Zealand, the unemployment rate climbs to 3.4%, which is well above the market expectations of 3.3%. The Employment Change data posted a reading of 0.2%, weaker than the consensus forecast of 0.3%. Both data showed that the labor market remains tight after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s aggressive rate hike. The New Zealand Finance Minister, Grant Roberson, mentioned that the country’s unemployment rate actually still remains low and the number of workers has increased significantly through the work visa and working holiday schemes to fill the local labor market. With that, the market participants would continue to eye on more economic data, in order to scrutinize the future monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). As of writing, NZDUSD depreciated -0.275% to $0.6421.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated 0.14% to $78.98 per barrel as of writing amid EU country sanctions on Russian oil productions. Besides, the gold price depreciated -0.16% to $1942.05 per troy ounce as investors are waiting for more cues on the monetary policy from Fed.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

18:00                     CrudeOIL                               OPEC Meeting

3:00                        USD                                      FOMC Statement

(2nd Feb)

3:00                        USD                                      FOMC Press Conference

(2nd Feb)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:55 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 47.0 47.0
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.7 46.7
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) 9.2% 9.0%
21:15 USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 235k 178k
23:00 USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.4 48.0
23:00                 USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) 10.458M 10.250M
23:30 USD – Crude Oil Inventories 0.533M 0.376M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

Resistance level: 102.05, 103.20

Support level: 100.55, 99.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair be traded higher as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2415, 1.2535

Support level: 1.2265, 1.2120

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair be traded higher as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.0890, 1.1040

Support level: 1.0740, 1.0600

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

Resistance level: 130.25, 132.60

Support level: 126.70, 123.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7140

Support level: 0.6955, 0.6870

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses.

Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6360, 0.6260

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level.  However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be trade higher as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3500

Support level: 1.3155, 1.2980

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses.

Resistance level: 0.9235, 0.9400

Support level: 0.9065, 0.8920

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains.

Resistance level: 81.50, 85.20

Support level: 77.25, 73.90

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following the prior breakout above the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains.

Resistance level: 1939.10, 1960.00

Support level: 1918.90, 1900.40

 

010223 Morning Session Analysis

01 February 2023                               Morning Session Analysis

 

US Dollar tumbled amid lower consumer optimism.

The dollar index, which is traded against a basket of six major currencies, lost its foot and reversed a large part of its gain in the previous trading session as downbeat data wiped the positive sentiment in the dollar market. According to the Conference Board, US CB Consumer Confidence printed a reading at 107.1, missing both the consensus forecast and the prior month’s reading at 109.0, pointing to a deterioration of consumer confidence in the economic activity. In fact, the reduction of consumer confidence was mainly attributed to the aggressive rate hike plan from the Federal Reserve (Fed), whereby it had led to lower wage growth and higher borrowing costs in the US as the objective of the Fed was to achieve a dual mandate which includes price stability and full employment, thus, investors are now eyeing on the Fed pivot to scrutinize the future trend of the markets. Despite the fact that the market has fully priced in a 25-basis point rate hike that would be implemented in the Fed meeting, the still-high inflation in the US likely put the US interest rate at an elevated level for an extended period of time. As of writing, the dollar index dropped -0.18% to 102.10.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil prices rose by 1.67% to $79.00 per barrel as the oil demand surged with the backdrop of dollar’s weakness. Besides, gold prices appreciated 0.26% to $1928.20 per troy ounce amid the weakening of dollar index.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

18:00                     CrudeOIL                               OPEC Meeting

3:00                                        USD                                        FOMC Statement

(2nd Feb)

3:00                                        USD                                        FOMC Press Conference

(2nd Feb)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:55 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 47.0 47.0
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.7 46.7
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) 9.20% 9.10%
21:15 USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 235K 170K
23:00 USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.4 48
23:00 USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) 10.458M 10.200M
23:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories 0.533M 0.376M
3:00

(2nd Feb)

USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.75%

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 101.25. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 103.15.

 

Resistance level: 103.15, 105.00

Support level: 101.25, 99.40

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2345. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2200.

 

 

Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2470

Support level: 1.2200, 1.2105

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0935. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0775.

 

Resistance level: 1.0935, 1.1115

Support level: 1.0775, 1.0675

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the upper level of the downward channel. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the upper level.

 

Resistance level: 131.25, 134.15

Support level: 128.60, 126.30

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7125. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6985.

 

Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7260

Support level: 0.6985, 0.6725

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6460. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6355.

 

Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6555

Support level: 0.6355, 0.6255

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3400.  MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3265.

 

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3505

Support level: 1.3265, 1.3155

 

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9225. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9110.

 

Resistance level: 0.9225, 0.9310

Support level: 0.9110, 0.9040

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 76.10. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.

 

Resistance level: 81.80, 86.15

Support level: 76.10, 71.50

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1900.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1944.60.

 

Resistance level: 1944.60, 1985.90

Support level: 1900.00, 1884.00

 

310123 Afternoon Session Analysis

31 January 2023                 Afternoon Session Analysis

The Aussie dollar depreciated after Dec retail sales released

The Aussie dollar traded as one of the major currencies globally, depreciated after a worsening retail sales report was released. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed retail sales in December slumped to -3.9% from the prior month’s 1.4%. The reading clearly indicated that slowing down of consumer spending in December, since the Australian consumer price index spike to 30 year high Household spending power constrained by the higher cost of living, combined with the heavy holiday shopping seen in last month’s results, made December’s reading drop to negative. The ABS noted in a release that many consumers had responded to inflation pressure and took advantage of promotion activity in November to save spending. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its hawkish tone in its communique to bring the inflation rate back to the target level of 2% to 3%. However, it reiterated that the future monetary policy decision will depend on data and the labor market outlook. According to Focus Economics, RBA will raise their interest rate by 25 bp at the next upcoming meeting on 7th February 2023. As of writing, the Aussie dollar, depreciated from -0.205 to $0.7046.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price was depreciated -0.12% to $77.81 per barrel as of writing amid investor caution over an upcoming FOMC meeting and OPE decision on production.  Besides, the gold price appreciated 0.13% to $1925.40 per troy ounce as investors expect a slowing interest rate hike for the dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:55                 German Unemployment Change (Jan) -13k 5k
21:00 German CPI (YoY) 8.6% 9.2%
21:30                 GDP (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% 0.1%
23:00                 CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) 108.3 109.0

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 101.70. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the index extends its gains toward resistance level at 103.00.

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.55

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2440.

Resistance level: 1.2440, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the higher level.

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0790, 1.0635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 130.25. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

Resistance level: 130.25, 132.30

Support level: 128.00, 126.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing for the resistance level at 0.7120. However, MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7195

Support level: 0.7040, 0.6950

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6495. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6400, 0.6325

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3330. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3250.

Resistance level: 1.3330,1.3420

Support level: 1.3250, 1.3175

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following a prior retracement from a higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9195.

Resistance level: 0.9240, 0.9315

Support level: 0.9195, 0.9140

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 81.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 76.05.

Resistance level: 81.60, 85.25

Support level: 76.05, 70.25

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1898.65.

Resistance level: 1953.40, 1996.80

Support level: 1898.65, 1845.80

 

310123 Morning Session Analysis

31 January 2023                 Morning Session Analysis

 

US Dollar buoyed ahead of blockbuster week.

The dollar index, which traded against a basket of six major currencies, managed to find its foot and regained its luster following the significant rise in the US Treasury yields. At this juncture, the central bank policy announcement is highly focused by the market participants as it may shed light on the progress that has been made in cooling down the inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would implement a 25-basis point of rate hike is close to 97.6%, whereas the likelihood of a 50-basis point of rate hike is 2.4%. Prior to that, the dollar index has been experiencing tremendous sell-off pressures since the inflation figure started to fall as the aggressiveness of tightening monetary stance diminished alongside. On top of that, the dollar index was further supported following the release of downbeat data in Europe. According to the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, the German GDP for the fourth quarter dropped -0.2%, missing the consensus forecast at 0.0%, surprising the market participants with a sign of recession in Germany. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.29% to 102.22.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil prices edged up by 0.21% to $77.90 per barrel after slumping significantly yesterday amid Russia oil flows remains strong. Besides, gold prices depreciated by -0.03% to $1922.65 per troy ounce amid the strengthening of dollar index.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:55 EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jan) -13K 5K
21:00 EUR – German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 8.60% 9.20%
21:30 CAD – GDP (MoM) (Nov) 0.10% 0.10%
23:00 USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) 108.3 109

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 101.25. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 103.15.

 

 

Resistance level: 103.15, 105.00

Support level: 101.25, 99.40

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2345. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

 

Resistance level: 1.2470, 1.2645

Support level: 1.2345, 1.2200

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0935. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0775.

 

Resistance level: 1.0935, 1.1115

Support level: 1.0775, 1.0675

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the upper level of the downward channel. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the upper level.

 

Resistance level: 131.25, 134.15

Support level: 128.60, 126.30

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7125. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6985.

 

Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7260

Support level: 0.6985, 0.6725

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6460. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6460, 0.6355

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3400.  MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3505

Support level: 1.3265, 1.3155

 

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9225. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9225, 0.9310

Support level: 0.9110, 0.9040

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 81.80. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 76.10.

 

Resistance level: 81.35, 86.15

Support level: 76.10, 71.50

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1944.60. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1900.00.

 

Resistance level: 1944.60, 1985.90

Support level: 1900.00, 1884.00

 

300123 Afternoon Session Analysis

30 January 2023                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro strengthened amid ECB hawkish statement.

The Euro, which traded as a major currency, was strengthened by the hawkish statement from Christine Lagarde, the President of the Europe Central Bank (ECB).  In the statement, the president of the ECB mentioned the need of hiking the interest rate significantly in order to reach the 2% inflation target and stay at a higher level for as long as necessary. According to a Bloomberg report, the first ECB policy meeting of 2023 is almost certainly delivering a half-point hike. However, the euro uptrend was offset by the optimistic US economic data. The positive data for the last few days such as 2.9% GDP and 185k initial jobless claims were well above market expectations. Those data dialed up the market optimism toward economic progression in the US. These economic data indicated that the US economy is back on track and strengthened the appeal of the US dollar. Therefore, the dollar index was positively boosted by the economic data and brought the euro currency to slip from a higher level. Apart from this, Germany will release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with an estimation of 0.0%, with a possibility that the data might post a lower reading compared to the prior month. As of writing, EURUSD was depreciated -0.03% to $1.0864.

In the commodity market, the crude oil price depreciated by -0.58% to $79.22 per barrel as of writing following a news source report that Russia increased the oil loadings at Baltic ports by 50% this month. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.92% to $1947.10 per troy ounce as of writing amid the expectations of a smaller rate hike of 25 basis points only.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.40% 0.00%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 101.70. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the index extends its gains toward the resistance level at 103.00.

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.55

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2440.

Resistance level: 1.2440, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the higher level.

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0790, 1.0635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 130.25. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains if successfully break out the resistance level.

Resistance level: 130.25, 132.30

Support level: 128.00, 126.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing for the resistance level at 0.7120. However, MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7195

Support level: 0.7040, 0.6950

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6495. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6400, 0.6325

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3330. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3250.

Resistance level: 1.3330,1.3420

Support level: 1.3250, 1.3175

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following a prior retracement from a higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9195.

Resistance level: 0.9240, 0.9315

Support level: 0.9195, 0.9140

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 81.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 76.05.

Resistance level: 81.60, 85.25

Support level: 76.05, 70.25

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1898.65.

Resistance level: 1953.40, 1996.80

Support level: 1898.65, 1845.80

 

300123 Morning Session Analysis

30 January 2023                 Morning Session Analysis

 

US Dollar found its ground amid positive economic data.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies regained its luster on last Friday following the upbeat economic data has dialed up the market optimism toward economic progression in the US. Last week, a series of data such as US Core Durable Goods Orders MoM, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ and US Initial Jobless Claims had given the reading that better than market expectation, while it shown that the US economy was not entering into recession yet. Prior to that, most of market participants was speculating that the US might face economy soft landing in 2023. Besides that, the inflationary data has also brought positive impact for the rally of US Dollar. According to Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Core PCE Price Index MoM notched up from the previous reading of 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating a signs that inflation is starting to rise again. With that, the likelihood of aggressive rate hike move from Fed would likely to be increased. Going forward, investors would continue to scrutinize the Fed’s interest rate decision in order to receive further trading signals. As of writing, the Dollar Index edged up by 0.01% to 101.73.

 

In the commodity market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.88% to $80.39 per barrel as of writing following the bullish optimism over China oil demand. On the other hand, the gold price depreciated by 0.83% to $1928.93 per troy ounce as of writing over the strengthening of US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.40% 0.00%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 102.05, 103.20

Support level: 100.55, 99.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 1.2535, 1.2735

Support level: 1.2335, 1.2135

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0890, 1.1040

Support level: 1.0740, 1.0600

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 130.35, 132.60

Support level: 126.70, 123.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7050, 0.6955

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 0.6560, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6460, 0.6360

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher ad technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3500

Support level: 1.3155, 1.2980

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9235, 0.9400

Support level: 0.9065, 0.8920

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 81.50, 85.20

Support level: 77.25, 73.90

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1939.10, 1960.00

Support level: 1918.90, 1900.40

 

200123 Afternoon Session Analysis

20 January 2023                Afternoon Session Analysis

Yen edged up following rising inflation risk.

The USD/JPY, which traded widely by global investors hovered in its 8-month low on Friday after economic data has been released. According to Statistics Bureau, the Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY notched up from the previous reading of 3.7% to 4.0%, while it met market expectation. With that, it might prompt Bank of Japan (BoJ) to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy as the data shown that inflationary risk in Japan heightened. Prior to that, BoJ decided to remain its interest rate in negative rate, which disappointed market participants as they used to speculate a hawkish move from it. Though, it is noteworthy that BoJ has reiterated that the goal of bringing inflation back to 2% target on its press conference. On the other hand, the EUR/USD gains was extended on yesterday over the hawkish statement from European Central Bank (ECB). Christine Largarde, the President of ECB appeared a speak on yesterday that the central bank would stay course with rate hikes as ECB was committed to curb inflation till 2%. As of writing, the USD/JPY rose by 0.26% to 128.76, as well as EUR/USD appreciated by 0.08% to 1.0836.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price rallied by 0.48% to $81.00 per barrel as of writing following the optimism over an eventual recovery in Chinese demand. In addition, the gold price appreciated by 0.34% to $1928.60 per troy ounce as of writing amid the weakening of US Dollar.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

18:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.4% 0.5%
21:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 1.7% -0.4%
23:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Dec) 4.09M 3.96M

 

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DAILY: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 101.70. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the index to extends its losses if successfully break below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.55

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.2450, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.3150

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level at 1.0790. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0790, 1.0635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level at 128.00. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.

 

Resistance level: 130.25, 132.30

Support level: 128.00, 126.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following the rebound from the support level at 0.6870. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6945.

 

Resistance level: 0.6945, 0.7040

Support level: 0.6870, 0.6775

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6400. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6495.

 

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6400, 0.6325

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level at 1.3515.  MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses towards support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3515, 1.3600

Support level: 1.3420, 1.3330

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level at 0.9140. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9195.

 

Resistance level: 0.9195, 0.9240

Support level: 0.9140, 0.9100

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 81.60.

 

Resistance level: 81.60, 85.25

Support level: 76.05, 70.25

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggestss the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1953.40, 1996.90

Support level: 1898.65, 1845.80

200123 Morning Session Analysis

20 January 2023                 Morning Session Analysis

 

US Dollar advanced amid strong labor data.

The dollar index, which traded against a basket of mainstream currencies, managed to find its footing near the recent low level following the release of a series of upbeat economic data. According to the Department of Labor, US Initial Jobless Claims data decline sharply from the prior reading’s 205K to 190K, refreshing the record-low since April 2022. The upbeat job data showed that the US labor market is remained strong and resilient despite the heightening of recession risk. Besides, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showed that Philadelphia business condition has improved slightly as compared to the prior month. Based on the manufacturing data from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, it printed an actual reading at -8.9, dropping from the previous month reading’s -13.7 while higher than the consensus forecast at -11.0. As a matter of fact, the state is still facing continued softness in new orders and a weak business outlook. At the same time, the US dollar market sentiment remains sour at this juncture as the majority of the investors are still foreseeing Federal Reserve will adopt a slower pace of rate hike in the upcoming meetings. As of writing, the dollar index edged down -0.29% to 102.05.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price edged up by 1.51% to $80.80 per barrel amid the weakness of US dollar pushed up the demand of oil temporarily. Besides, gold prices surged by 1.45% to $1932.25 per troy ounce amid the weakening of US dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

18:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.4% 0.5%
21:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 1.7% -0.4%
23:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Dec) 4.09M 3.96M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 103.15. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 101.25.

 

 

Resistance level: 103.15, 105.00

Support level: 101.25, 99.40

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2345. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

 

Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2470

Support level: 1.2200, 1.2105

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.0775. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0935.

 

Resistance level: 1.0935, 1.1115

Support level: 1.0775, 1.0675

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 128.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 128.60.

 

Resistance level: 128.60, 131.25

Support level: 126.30, 123.75

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6985. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6860.

 

Resistance level: 0.6985, 0.7125

Support level: 0.6860, 0.6725

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6460. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6355.

 

Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6555

Support level: 0.6355, 0.6255

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3505.  MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3600

Support level: 1.3400, 1.3265

 

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9225. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9110.

 

Resistance level: 0.9225, 0.9310

Support level: 0.9110, 0.9040

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 81.35. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 81.35.

 

Resistance level: 81.35, 86.15

Support level: 76.10, 71.50

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1900.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1944.60.

 

Resistance level: 1944.60, 1985.90

Support level: 1900.00, 1884.00

 

190123 Afternoon Session Analysis

19 January 2023                Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro plunged as inflationary risk eased.  

The EUR/USD, which traded widely by global investors dived on yesterday following the easing of inflationary risk in Eurozone. According to Eurostat, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY has notched down from the previous reading of 10.1% to 9.2%. In details, the CPI in Europe countries had slide for the second month in a row month, while it indicated that the aggressive rate hike move from ECB has received significant impact on spiking inflation. With that, the ECB members might start planning for a slower hikes. Prior to that, the ECB’s policymakers was considering a less aggressive rate hike in the upcoming meeting, says 25 basis point increase. Such statement has dialed down the appeal of Euro. On the other hand, the AUD/USD dropped significantly after the downbeat employment data has been announced. The Australia Employment Change has declined from the prior figures of 58.3K to -14.6K, missing the consensus forecast of 22.5K. The negative data has shown that the labor market in Australia remained fragile, which brought negative prospects toward economic progression in the Australia. As of writing, the EUR/USD edged up by 0.02% to 1.0795, as well as AUD/USD dropped by 0.51% to 0.6905.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped by 1.17% to $78.84 per barrel as of writing following the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock shows stockpiles over past week. In addition, the gold price appreciated by 0.09% to $1906.78 per troy ounce as of writing over the weakening of US Dollar.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

18:30                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21:30 USD – Building Permits (Dec) 1.351M 1.370M
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 205K 212K
21:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) -13.8 -11.0

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following rebound from the support level at 101.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 103.00

 

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.55

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from resistance level at 1.2450. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2450, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.3150

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0790. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term

 

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0470

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 130.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout above the support level at 128.00

 

Resistance level: 130.25, 132.30

Support level: 128.00, 126.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below from the previous support level at 0.6945. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6870.

 

Resistance level: 0.6945, 0.7040

Support level: 0.6870, 0.6775

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6495. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6400.

 

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6400, 0.6325

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3515.  MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3515, 1.3600

Support level: 1.3420, 1.3330

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level at 0.9140. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9195

 

Resistance level: 0.9195, 0.9240

Support level: 0.9140, 0.9100

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior breakout below from the previous support level at 81.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 76.05.

 

Resistance level: 81.60, 85.25

Support level: 76.05, 70.25

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower currently testing the support level at 1898.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward if successfully break below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1953.40, 1996.90

Support level: 1898.65, 1845.80

190123 Morning Session Analysis

19 January 2023                 Morning Session Analysis

 

US Dollar plummeted amid downbeat economic data.

The dollar index, which traded against a basket of six major currencies, slumped as a series of downbeat economic data further diminished the luster of the currency. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistic, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data dropped from 0.2% to -0.5%, missing the expectation of -0.1%, mirroring the further sign of inflation was receding. The sharp drop in the data was mainly attributed to the decline in the costs of energy products and food. On the other side, the dollar index dropped further after the US Retail Sales data printed the biggest drop since a year ago. The relative data came in at -1.1%, weaker than the consensus forecast at -0.8%, pointing a slower pace of economic growth in US heading into 2023. However, the gains were limited by the hawkish comments from the Fed’s members. Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated that cash rate should be lifted up above 5.0% as soon as possible in order curb the still-high inflation in the nation. As of writing, the dollar index edged up 0.01% to 102.40.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil prices dived -2.27% to $79.40 per barrel as the hawkish comment from the Fed’s member sparked worries about a possible recession in the US, dampening the prospect of oil market.  Besides, gold prices edged down by -0.22% to $1904.35 per troy ounce following the rebound in the US dollar market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

18:30                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21:30 USD – Building Permits (Dec) 1.351M 1.370M
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 205K 212K
21:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) -13.8 -11.0

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 103.15. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 101.25.

 

 

Resistance level: 103.15, 105.00

Support level: 101.25, 99.40

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2345. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

 

Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2470

Support level: 1.2200, 1.2105

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0775. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.0935, 1.1115

Support level: 1.0775, 1.0675

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 128.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 128.60.

 

Resistance level: 128.60, 131.25

Support level: 126.30, 123.75

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6985. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6860.

 

Resistance level: 0.6985, 0.7125

Support level: 0.6860, 0.6725

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6355. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6460.

 

Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6555

Support level: 0.6355, 0.6255

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3505.  MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3600

Support level: 1.3400, 1.3265

 

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9110. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9225, 0.9310

Support level: 0.9110, 0.9040

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 81.35. However, MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.

 

Resistance level: 81.35, 86.15

Support level: 76.10, 71.50

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1900.00.

 

Resistance level: 1944.60, 1985.90

Support level: 1900.00, 1884.00

 

180123 Afternoon Session Analysis

18 January 2023                Afternoon Session Analysis

Yen beaten down by BoJ dovish policy decision.

The USD/JPY, which traded widely by global investors surged immediately on Wednesday after Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its monetary policy decision. According to the BoJ Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ decide to maintain its ultra-low interest rate in current basis. Besides, the Japan central bank would also keep purchasing its Japanese government bonds without setting an upper limit. With that, it would likely to increase the currency circulation in the Japan, which dragged down the value of Japanese Yen. On the interest rate front, the interest rate that still remaining at negative level had also stoked a shift in sentiment toward other currencies such as US Dollar, as the profits in Japan market was limited. Prior to that, market participants were anticipating that BoJ might turn its stance by exiting loosening monetary policy. Obviously, BoJ has disappointed investors again. On the economic data front, the upbeat economic data has pushed Pound Sterling to its recent high on yesterday. The UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus and UK Claimant Count Change has given a better-than-expected reading in both. As of writing, the USDJPY rallied by 2.31% to 131.11, while the GBPUSD dropped by 0.17% to 1.2268.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price rose by 0.75% to $81.05 per barrel as of writing over the rising market optimism upon relaxation of China covid-19 curbs. On the other hand, the gold price eased by 0.42% to $1899.46 per troy ounce as of writing following the strengthening of US Dollar.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:00                     USD                                        Beige Book

(19th)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 10.7% 10.6%
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 9.2% 9.2%
21:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.2% -0.4%
21:30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% -0.1%
21:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.6% -0.8%

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from support level at 101.70. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 103.00.

 

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.55

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2300. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2445

Support level: 1.2145, 1.1930

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while break below the previous support level at 1.0790. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses below the support level at 1.0635.

 

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0470

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher after it break above the previous resistance level at 130.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 132.30.

 

Resistance level: 132.30, 134.55

Support level: 128.00, 126.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following a rebound from the support level at 0.6950. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 0.7040.

 

Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7120

Support level: 0.6950, 0.6870

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6400. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6495.

 

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6325, 0.6195

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following a prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3515

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3250

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9240. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9240, 0.9315

Support level: 0.9195, 0.9140

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 81.60. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 81.60.

 

Resistance level: 81.60, 85.25

Support level: 76.10, 70.25

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1898.65.

 

Resistance level: 1898.65, 1953.40

Support level: 1845.80, 1796.00

180123 Morning Session Analysis

18 January 2023                 Morning Session Analysis

 

Greenback holds tight ahead of a series of data.

The dollar index, which traded against a basket of six major currencies, hovered near its 7 months low as the market participants are waiting for further economic data to be released, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data. Yesterday, the dollar index was traded lower in choppy trading as the recent inflation figure improved gradually, getting far away from the peak of 9.1% while heading toward the Fed long term target’s 2.0%. Today, market attention has been put on the PPI data as it could provide further insight regarding the nation’s inflationary condition. Besides, the market participants are also eyeing on the announcement of BoJ Monetary Policy Statement. The expectation of a possible policy shift has been building up, whereby there is a high possibility could change or end its yield curve control policy. However, the likelihood of lifting the cash rate from -0.1% to the positive territory is unforeseen in this point of time, but a precursor of adopting tightening monetary policy is likely to be seen in the meeting. With that, the BoJ decision is likely to weigh on the FX market during the Asian trading session today, where the volatility will be amplified.  As of writing, the pair of USD/JPY rose 0.07% to 128.25.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil prices edged up by 0.07% to $81.15 per barrel after the OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais presented its optimistic view toward the recovery of the global economy, hinting the prospect of oil demand remains bright. Besides, gold prices edged down by -0.01% to $1908.35 per troy ounce following the rebound in the US dollar market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

11:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)

Tentative                               JPY                                          BoJ Press Conference

03:00                     USD                                        Beige Book

(19th)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 10.7% 10.6%
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 9.2% 9.2%
21:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.2% -0.4%
21:30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% -0.1%
21:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.6% -0.8%

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 103.15. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 101.25.

 

 

Resistance level: 103.15, 105.00

Support level: 101.25, 99.40

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2200. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2345.

 

 

Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2470

Support level: 1.2200, 1.2105

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0775. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.0935, 1.1115

Support level: 1.0775, 1.0675

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 128.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 128.60.

 

Resistance level: 128.60, 131.25

Support level: 126.30, 123.75

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6985. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6985, 0.7125

Support level: 0.6860, 0.6725

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6355. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6460.

 

Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6555

Support level: 0.6355, 0.6255

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3400.  MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3505

Support level: 1.3265, 1.3155

 

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9225. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9310, 0.9405

Support level: 0.9225, 0.9110

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 81.35. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 81.35.

 

Resistance level: 81.35, 86.15

Support level: 76.10, 71.50

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1900.00.

 

Resistance level: 1944.60, 1985.90

Support level: 1900.00, 1884.00

170123 Afternoon Session Analysis

17 January 2023                Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie edged up following the optimistic GDP.

The AUD/USD, which traded widely by global investors received some bullish momentum on Tuesday after the upbeat economic data has been unleashed. According to National Bureau of Statistics of China, the China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY came in at the reading of 2.9%, exceeding the market forecast of 1.8%. Besides, the China Industrial Production YoY also surprised market participants by a better-than-expected figures, which indicating that the manufacturing sector in China has started to recover. Thus, Aussie, one of the China-proxy currency has catch the eyes of investors. Though, the gains of Aussie was limited following the pandemic Covid-19 issue still lingering in China. According to Reuters, China citizens laden with luggage flocked to rail stations in China’s megacities on Monday, heading to their hometowns for holidays. However, China may be on the verge of another outbreak of COVID-19 amid the background of loosening ‘zero-Covid’ policy. As of writing, the AUD/USD appreciated by 0.22% to 0.6969.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price eased by 0.62% to $79.60 per barrel as of writing as investors are awaiting for the OPEC monthly report which will be released tonight. On the other hand, the gold price depreciated by 0.42% to $1910.25 per troy ounce as of writing over the strengthening of US Dollar.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:00                     CrudeOIL                               OPEC Monthly Report

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 6.1% 6.1%
15:00 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Dec) 30.5K 19.8K
15:00 EUR – German CPI (YoY) (Dec) 8.6% 8.6%
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) -23.3 -15.0
21:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index extend its gains towards resistance at 101.65.

 

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.55

Support level: 101.65, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggested the pair extend its gains towards support level at 1.2145

 

Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2450

Support level: 1.2145, 1.1925

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggested the pair extend its losses towards support level at 1.0635

 

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0470

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following a prior break above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggested the pair will extend its gains towards 130.25.

 

Resistance level: 130.25, 131.70

Support level: 128.00, 126.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggested the pair will extend it losses if successfully break below the support level at 0.6870

 

Resistance level: 0.6945, 0.7040

Support level: 0.6870, 0.6775

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following a prior break below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggested the pair will extend its losses towards support level at 0.6325

 

Resistance level: 0.6400, 0.6495

Support level: 0.6325, 0.6195

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level.  MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish bias momentum suggested the pair will traded lower towards support level at 1.3330.

 

Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3515

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3250

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggested the pair will extend its gains towards resistance level at 0.9310.

 

Resistance level: 0.9310, 0.9365

Support level: 0.9240, 0.9195

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: CrudeOIL was traded lower following a prior retracement from the trend level. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggested the commodity will undergo a technical correction in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 81.60, 89.00

Support level: 76.05, 70.25

 

GOLD, Daily: GOLD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggested the commodity will extend its losses if the commodity break below the support level at 1898.65.

 

Resistance level: 1953.40, 1996.80

Support level: 1898.65, 1845.80