GCM Asia – Latest Analysis

050820 Afternoon Session Analysis

05 August 2020                  Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Dollar extend retreat amid ongoing recovery concerns.

The dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pair remains weak and fell during late Asian session as hopes of U.S recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continue to falter. On top of that, the failure of reaching a consensus over the country’s latest stimulus measure from U.S Congress also added further worries for the market. According to reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned that “we’re not going anywhere close” to the $3.4 trillion price tag sought by Democrats, despite with White House negotiators vowed to work “around the clock” in order to reach a consensus by the end of this week. Following latest progress, both sides are still seem far apart on the $600 per week unemployment benefits. Besides that, adding further selling pressure for the greenback was the falling yields where U.S yields went further to negative territory and record lows. At the time of writing, dollar index slips 0.27% to 93.04.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price soars 0.37% to $41.63 per barrel at the time of writing following explosion in Lebanon stoking feats of instability in the region. According to reports, an explosion emerged in the area around the Port of Beirut. Authorities stated that it was caused by highly explosive materials at the port, but didn’t immediately say whether it was an accident or an attack. On the other hand, gold price extend gains and rose 0.15% to $2015.42 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar weakness and various geopolitical risk.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:30 GBP – Composite PMI (Jul) 47.7 57.1
16:30 GBP – Services PMI (Jul) 47.1 56.6
20:15                 USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) 2,369K 1,500K
22:00 USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 57.1 55.0
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -10.612M 0.357M

 

Analisis Teknikal

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Indeks dolar telah didagang dengan lebih rendah selepas ia berundur dari tahap yang lebih tinggi. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berkurangan mencadangkan dolar untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya dan menuju ke arah tahap sokongan di 92.55.

 

Tahap rintangan: 94.10, 95.95

Tahap sokongan: 92.55, 91.45

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi selepas ia memecah tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 1.3060. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berterusan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih tinggi dan menuju ke arah tahap rintangan di 1.3150.

 

Tahap rintangan: 1.3150, 1.3245

Tahap sokongan: 1.3060, 1.2985

 

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi selepas ia memecah tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 1.1775. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berterusan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya dan menuju ke arah tahap rintangan di 1.1830.

 

Tahap rintangan: 1.1830, 1.1900

Tahap sokongan: 1.1775, 1.1695

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY telah didagang dengan lebih rendah selepas ia berundur dari tahap rintangan di 106.15. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya dan menuju ke arah tahap sokongan di 105.00.

 

Tahap rintangan: 106.15, 106.95

Tahap sokongan: 105.00, 104.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi sementara ia sedang menguji tahap rintangan di 0.7175. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berterusan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya selepas lilinnya berjaya menutup di atas tahap rintangan tersebut.

 

Tahap rintangan: 0.7175, 0.7205

Tahap sokongan: 0.7120, 0.7080

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi selepas ia melantun dari tahap sokongan di 0.6580. MACD yang menunjukkan isyarat momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya dan menuju ke arah tahap rintangan di 0.6755.

 

Tahap rintangan: 0.6755, 0.6920

Tahap sokongan: 0.6580, 0.6480

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah selepas ia memecah tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 1.3335. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya dan menuju ke arah tahap sokongan di 1.3210.

 

Tahap rintangan: 1.3335, 1.3505

Tahap sokongan: 1.3210, 1.3045

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF telah didagang dengan lebih rendah sementara ia sedang menguji tahap sokongan di 0.9125. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih rendah selepas ia memecah tahap sokongan di 0.9125.

 

Tahap rintangan: 0.9170, 0.9220

Tahap sokongan: 0.9125, 0.9065

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Harga minyak mentah telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi sementara ia sedang menguji tahap rintangan di 41.70. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berterusan mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya selepas ia berjaya memecah tahap rintangannya di 41.70.

 

Tahap rintangan: 41.70, 42.45

Tahap sokongan: 41.15, 40.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Harga emas telah didagang dengan lebih rendah selepas ia berundur dari tahap yang lebih tinggi. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berkurangan  mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya dan menuju ke arah tahap sokongan di 1984.10.

 

Tahap rintangan: 2040.60, 2090.10

Tahap sokongan: 1984.10, 1939.50

050820 Morning Session Analysis

05 August 2020                  Morning Session Analysis

Aussie surged over the monetary statement.

The Australian Dollar surged over the hawkish statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to the Australia’s Monetary Policy Statement, the central bank held its monetary policy unchanged while maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 0.25% during the latest monetary meeting. Besides, they reiterated that the economic stimulus package from the central bank in order to support for the Australian economy is working better than expectation. There is a very high level of liquidity in the Australian financial system and borrowing rates are maintained at historical lows level. Indeed, they will still remain their footsteps at Monetary easing while eyeing on the global growth risk, more stimulus can be anticipated if the course of events urges their economy growth goes against their expectation. Besides that, the Australian dollar extend its gains over the backdrop of the positive economic data on yesterday. The Australian Bureau of Statistics have shown that the Australia Retail Sales for last month came in at 2.7%, confounding market forecast for a reading up to 2.4%. As of writing, AUD/USD surged 0.02% to 0.7155.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.05% to $41.51 per barrel as of writing. The oil price spiked up following the API Weekly Crude Oil stockpiles fell another 8.6 million barrels for the week ending 1st August. As for now, investors would continue to scrutinize the Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data in order to receive further trading signals. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.16% to $2022.65 per troy ounces as of writing amid the worsening conditions of the coronavirus infections, which sparkling the demand for the safe-haven commodity.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:30 GBP – Composite PMI (Jul) 47.7 57.1
16:30 GBP – Services PMI (Jul) 47.1 56.6
20:15                 USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) 2,369K 1,500K
22:00 USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 57.1 55.0
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -10.612M 0.357M

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Weekly: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 92.90. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 95.55, 97.65

Support level: 92.90, 91.30

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 1.3100. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3175

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1780. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1900.

 

Resistance level: 1.1900, 1.1995

Support level: 1.1780, 1.1685

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 106.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 105.25.

 

Resistance level: 106.40, 107.35

Support level: 105.25, 104.25

 

AUDUSD, Weekly: AUDUSD was higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7120. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7335, 0.7560

Support level: 0.7120, 0.6815

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6625. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6690.

 

Resistance level: 0.6690, 0.6735

Support level: 0.6625, 0.6575

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3335. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3245.

 

Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3445

Support level: 1.3245, 1.3160

 

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9195. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9195, 0.9330

Support level: 0.9060, 0.8860

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 41.15. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 42.10.

 

Resistance level: 42.10, 43.05

Support level: 41.15, 40.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 2010.40. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 2039.65.

 

Resistance level: 2039.65, 2088.65

Support level: 2009.40, 1982.25

 

 

040820 Afternoon Session Analysis

04 August 2020                  Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Dollar paused as investors await stimulus deal.

The dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have halted its recovery and slip during late Asian session as upbeat economic data against slow progress toward U.S stimulus package causing mixed reaction while market awaits for further progress. From data perspective, ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 54.2, higher than market expectation of 53.6. The data managed to exert some support for the greenback but the momentum was short-lived as the readings were still far below the level before pandemic. On the other hand, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated on Monday that the next help for the virus-battered U.S. economy must come from fiscal policy. Top Democrats and White House negotiators have also stated that they have made progress in talks on the latest coronavirus relief bill, although unemployment benefits remain an obstacle. At the time of writing, dollar index fell 0.03$ to 93.46.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.14% to $40.75 per barrel as of writing amid hopes of rebound in crude demand. Following upbeat data that showed U.S manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace since March 2019, increasing manufacturing activity may lead to higher usage of crude oil, thus pushing the price higher. On the other hand, gold price remain supported and rose 0.03% to $1976.89 per barrel at the time of writing due to ongoing risk of coronavirus and dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Analisis Teknikal

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Indeks dolar telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi selepas ia melantun dari tahap sokongan di 92.55. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan dolar untuk melanjutkan lantunannya dan menuju ke arah tahap rintangan di 94.10.

 

Tahap rintangan: 94.10, 95.95

Tahap sokongan: 92.55, 91.45

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi selepas ia memecah tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 1.3060. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih tinggi dan menuju ke arah tahap rintangan di 1.3150.

 

Tahap rintangan: 1.3150, 1.3245

Tahap sokongan: 1.3060, 1.2985

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi sementara ia sedang menguji tahap rintangan di 1.1775. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya selepas ia berjaya memecah tahap rintangan tersebut.

 

Tahap rintangan: 1.1775, 1.1830

Tahap sokongan: 1.1695, 1.1620

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi sementara ia sedang menguji tahap rintangan di 106.15. Namun, MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk mengalami pembetulan teknikal dan menuju ke arah tahap yang lebih rendah.

 

Tahap rintangan: 106.15, 106.95

Tahap sokongan: 105.05, 104.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi sementara ia sedang menguji tahap rintangan di 0.7120. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya selepas ia berjaya memecah tahap rintangan tersebut.

 

Tahap rintangan: 0.7120, 0.7175

Tahap sokongan: 0.7080, 0.7010

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah selepas ia berundur dari tahap yang lebih tinggi. MACD yang menunjukkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya dan menuju ke arah tahap sokongan di 0.6580.

 

Tahap rintangan: 0.6755, 0.6920

Tahap sokongan: 0.6580, 0.6480

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi selepas ia melantun dari tahap sokongan di 1.3335. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya dan menuju ke arah tahap rintangan di 1.3505.

 

Tahap rintangan: 1.3505, 1.3675

Tahap sokongan: 1.3335, 1.3210

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF telah didagang dengan lebih rendah sementara ia sedang menguji tahap sokongan di 0.9170. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih rendah selepas ia memecah tahap sokongan di 0.9170.

 

Tahap rintangan: 0.9220, 0.9265

Tahap sokongan: 0.9170, 0.9125

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Harga minyak mentah telah didagang dengan lebih rendah selepas ia berundur dair tahap rintangan di 41.15. Namun, MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bullish yang berterusan mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk mengalami pembetulan teknikal dan menuju ke tahap yang lebih tinggi.

 

Tahap rintangan: 41.15, 41.75

Tahap sokongan: 40.45, 39.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Harga emas telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi selepas ia melantun dari tahap sokongan di 1965.15. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya dan menuju ke tahap rintangan di 1990.10.

 

Tahap rintangan: 1990.10, 2041.65

Tahap sokongan: 1965.15, 1931.20

040820 Morning Session Analysis

04 August 2020                  Morning Session Analysis

Pound slumped over the negative economic outlook.

Pound Sterling slumped over the concerns of a second wave of coronavirus infections, weak economy and growing tensions to strike a post-Brexit trade deal before a transition period ends in December. On the economic data front, the Markit/CIPS reported that the U.K. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at only 53.3, missing the economist forecast at 53.6, while fading the hopes upon the V-shape economic recovery from the UK region. Besides that, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that some lockdown easing planned for the whole of UK region would need to be delayed following the coronavirus death toll spiked up to the record high, which further sapping the demand of the Pound Sterling. Nonetheless, investors are now eyeing on the further post-Brexit talks between UK and Europe as well as the Bank of England monetary meeting on Thursday to gauge the likelihood movement for the pair. As of writing, the GBP/USD depreciated by 0.02% to 1.3075.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.01% to $40.68 per barrel as of writing. The oil market inched higher following the U.S. Manufacturing surveys showed that the economic recovery from the U.S region continues despite the resurgence of the coronavirus, which providing positive prospect for the market demand of this black-commodity in the future. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.19% to $1973.15 per troy ounces over the backdrop of the positive U.S. economic data, which spurring risk-on sentiment in the market while diminishing market demand on the safe-haven commodity.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

12:30                  AUD                   RBA State Statement

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
09:30 Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 16.9% 2.4%
12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) 0.25% 0.25%

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Weekly: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 93.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 95.55, 97.65

Support level: 93.25, 91.30

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3010. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3175

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925

 

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1700. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1810, 1.1910

Support level: 1.1700, 1.1605

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 106.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 105.25.

 

Resistance level: 106.40, 107.35

Support level: 105.25, 104.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7120. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7185

Support level: 0.7080, 0.7025

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6625. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6625, 0.6690

Support level: 0.6575, 0.6530

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level ta 1.3445. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3330.

 

Resistance level: 1.3445, 1.3520

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3245

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9220. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9220, 0.9365

Support level: 0.9060, 0.8860

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 41.15. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 41.15, 42.10

Support level: 40.05, 39.25

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1982.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1982.25, 2018.05

Support level: 1947.45, 1910.05

030820 Afternoon Session Analysis

03 August 2020                  Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Japanese Yen slips following the release of Q1 GDP.

The Japanese Yen have fell against the dollar and other currency pairs during late Asian session after the recent release of Japan GDP in the first quarter. According to Japan’s Cabinet Office, Japan’s first quarter GDP remain shrinking at 0.6% and 2.2% for annual which both readings are unchanged compared to the previous results. The data also showed that Japan was already in a recession before the pandemic took its heaviest toll. Following a rare finance ministry move to update its capital spending data last week due to previous low response rate which deemed insufficient, the revision was much lesser than expected. At the same time, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe already facing spiralling budget deficits after pledging about $2 trillion in stimulus and weak recovery could force his administration to increase more, according to reports. He also stated that it now see completely no chance of balancing the budgeting before the year ending March 2030. At the time of writing, USD/JPY rose 0.08% to 105.90.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price extend losses and fell 0.10% to $39.90 per barrel at the time of writing following OPEC boost production. The production increase that will start this month will see about 1.5 million barrels added to global supply per day. However, fuel demand has yet to recover due to the COVID-19 pandemic, thus continue to affect the price of the commodity. On the other hand, gold price remains steady and edge higher 0.11% to $1972.94 a troy ounce at the time of writing as risk of COVID-19 and uncertainties of U.S congress to pass new COVID stimulus bill continue to boost demand for the commodity.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                    CAD                     Civic Holiday

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:55 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 45.2 50.0
16:30 GBP – Manfucturing PMI (Jul) 50.1 53.6
22:00 USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 52.6 53.6

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 93.15. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 94.35.

 

Resistance level: 94.35, 95.70

Support level: 93.15, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3005.

 

Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3320

Support level: 1.3005, 1.2810

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1795. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1690.

 

Resistance level: 1.1795, 1.1895

Support level: 1.1690, 1.1575

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 106.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 105.25.

 

Resistance level: 106.05, 106.70

Support level: 105.25, 104.35

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7185. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards support level 0.7040.

 

Resistance level: 0.7185, 0.7290

Support level: 0.7040, 0.6935

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6600. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6685.

 

Resistance level: 0.6685, 0.6750

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6510

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat near the MA lines. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1.3330.

 

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3635

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3195

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9065. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9230.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9365

Support level: 0.9065, 0.8985

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat after recent breakout below the previous support level 41.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 41.00.

 

Resistance level: 41.00, 42.45

Support level: 39.10, 37.20

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1966.50. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term back to 1966.50.

 

Resistance level: 2010.85, 2075.15

Support level: 1966.50, 1908.55

030820 Morning Session Analysis

03 August 2020                  Morning Session Analysis

 

Brexit deadlock remains pressured on pound.

Pound sterling which acts as one of the major currency dipped in early trading session today as Post-Brexit negotiation remains stalled as there are gaps in Brexit talks between UK and EU. Since UK voted to exit from EU bloc, both parties had undergone uncountable times of talk on all aspects of their future ties. Yet, there is no any official trade deal been achieved by UK and EU as the fishing conflict is remains as the major issue that need to be solved in the current condition. In details, UK and EU are now struggling on the talks with regards to the future fish industry as UK insists to block EU fishermen from its water. Prior to now, Britain reacted furiously and criticized Brussels as they demanded UK to allow their accesses of boat to UK water after transition period ended, which is simply unacceptable by UK government. Nevertheless, investors are now eyeing on the further trade talk between these two parties, which have been scheduled to be held all the way from time to time until the beginning of October. During Asian early trading session, the pair of GBP/USD inched up 0.07% to 1.3095.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciated by 0.47% to $40.00 per barrel as of writing amid heightening of market worries over prospect of oil demand. According to a poll from Reuters, potential second wave of Covid-19 still remains as the major threat that could limit the pace of recovery of this black commodity market. Besides, gold price up 0.35% to $1982.95 a troy ounce as increasing in virus’s cases spurred up the market’s risk avoidance behaviour.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CAD                                        Civic Holiday

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:55 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 45.2 50.0
16:30 GBP – Manfucturing PMI (Jul) 50.1 53.6
22:00 USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 52.6 53.6

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.35. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 93.35.

 

Resistance level: 93.35, 94.40

Support level: 92.30, 91.25

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3150. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3055.

 

Resistance level: 1.3150, 1.3245

Support level: 1.3055, 1.2960

 

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1775. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.1830.

 

Resistance level: 1.1830, 1.1900

Support level: 1.1775, 1.1695

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 105.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 106.15.

 

Resistance level: 106.15, 106.95

Support level: 105.05, 104.30

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7115. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7295, 0.7555

Support level: 0.7115, 0.7025

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level at 0.6755. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6580.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6480

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3335.

 

Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3675

Support level: 1.3335, 1.3210

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9125. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9170.

 

Resistance level: 0.9170, 0.9220

Support level: 0.9125, 0.9065

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 40.10. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term toward the higher level.

 

Resistance level: 41.35, 42.50

Support level: 40.10, 39.00

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1965.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1990.10.

 

Resistance level: 1990.10, 2041.65

Support level: 1965.15, 1931.20

 

300720 Afternoon Session Analysis

30 July 2020                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Kiwi struggles amid mixed sentiment.

The New Zealand Kiwi which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have failed to extend its previous upside momentum and fell during late Asian session following downbeat results from New Zealand data. According to ANZ, business confidence for July have slipped to -31.8, worse than market expectation of -29.8 while New Zealand Building Permits rose beyond expectation of 0.0% to 0.5%. At the same time, worsening coronavirus in the Australia also affect the Kiwi. Australian state Victoria recently recorded 723 new virus cases with 13 deaths on Wednesday. As Australia was the largest trading partner to the New Zealand, the deteriorating conditions may provide further reason for selling pressure. At the time of writing, NZD/USD slips 0.22% to 0.6650.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains stable and edge higher by 0.03% to $41.25 per barrel as of writing following signs of improving demand for fuel. As EIA reported a decline of 10.6 million barrels in inventories, market sentiment remains in high spirit and supported by the hopes of positive demand outlook. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.11% to $1962.96 a troy ounce at the time of writing following ongoing dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:55 EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) 0.25% 45K
16:00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -9.0%
20:30 USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 69K -34.0%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims -2.2% 1,400K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 93.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 93.15.

 

Resistance level: 94.35, 95.70

Support level: 93.15, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3005. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.2810.

 

Resistance level: 1.3005, 1.3200

Support level: 1.2810, 1.2660

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat in a tight range. However, MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1.1695.

 

Resistance level: 1.1825, 1.1985

Support level: 1.1695, 1.1595

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat after recent breakout below the previous support level 105.40. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 105.40.

 

Resistance level: 105.40, 106.00

Support level: 104.60, 103.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7185. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 0.7040.

 

Resistance level: 0.7185, 0.7290

Support level: 0.7040, 0.6935

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6670. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6580.

 

Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6745

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6490

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3330. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3685

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3195

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9160. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9075.

 

Resistance level: 0.9160, 0.9230

Support level: 0.9075, 0.8985

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat while currently testing near the support level 41.00. Due to lack of clear direction and momentum from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

 

Resistance level: 42.45, 43.85

Support level: 41.00, 39.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1969.50. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the recent formation of death cross suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 1908.55.

 

Resistance level: 1969.50, 2010.60

Support level: 1908.55, 1857.95

 

300720 Morning Session Analysis

30 July 2020                        Morning Session Analysis

US Dollar slumped amid dovish statement from Fed.

The dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies slumped over the dovish statement from the Federal Reserve in the early morning. The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate within a 0%-0.25% range while pledged to keep such lower rates until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve maximum employment and price stability goals. Besides that, the spiking number of new coronavirus infections had continued to weigh on the US Dollar. According to The Guardian, Florida had reported another record one-day rise in coronavirus deaths on Tuesday, while the cases in Texas had surpassed the 400,000 mark, spurring the fears that the United States is still not taking control of the coronavirus outbreak and adding doubts against the V-shape economic recovery from the United States. Nonetheless, the losses experienced by the dollar index was limited over the backdrop of the positive economic data which released on yesterday. According to National Association of Realtor, the U.S. Pending Home Sales for last month came in at 16.6%, slightly better than the economist forecast at 15.0%. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.46% to $93.20.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.05% to $41.25 per barrel as of writing following data showed a staggering unexpected drawdown in weekly U.S. crude stockpiles on yesterday. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. crude oil inventories had massively declined from the preliminary reading of 4.892M to -10.612M, lower than the market forecast at 0.357M. On the other hand, the gold market appreciated by 0.17% to $1967.50 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:55 EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) 0.25% 45K
16:00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -9.0%
20:30 USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 69K -34.0%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims -2.2% 1,400K  

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Weekly: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 92.95. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 95.55, 97.65

Support level: 92.95, 91.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3010. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3190

Support level: 1.2840, 1.2685

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1710. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1910.

 

Resistance level: 1.1910, 1.2035

Support level: 1.1710, 1.1450

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 105.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 104.25.

 

Resistance level: 105.25, 106.40

Support level: 104.25, 103.15

 

AUDUSD, Weekly: AUDUSD was higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7120. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7365.

 

Resistance level: 0.7365, 0.7560

Support level: 0.7120, 0.6815

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded within a range while currently near the resistance level at 0.6690. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6690, 0.6735

Support level: 0.6625, 0.6575

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level ta 1.3330. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3520

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3245

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9175. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9010.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9365

Support level: 0.9010, 0.8860

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 41.15. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 42.05, 43.05

Support level: 41.15, 40.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1965.50. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1965.50, 2001.85

Support level: 1934.55, 1905.00

 

 

 

290720 Afternoon Session Analysis

29 July 2020                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Aussie rose following upbeat CPI data.

The Aussie dollar which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have regain some support and appreciated after the positive release of CPI. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index based on quarterly basis have improved to -1.9%, slightly better than market expectation with the reading of -2%. Meanwhile, the annualized figure also came it at -0.3% which is also beating market expectation of -0.4%. At the same time, the momentum was also supported by the weakness in greenback as US dollar fails to regain buyer’s confidence. As of now, trader continue to doubt the U.S policymakers will be able to sign the phase 4 coronavirus stimulus package. The scepticism was confirmed further by U.S House Speaker Nancy Pelosi which she stated that both Republicans and opposition Democrats are still far apart in reaching any deal. At the time of writing, AUD/USD rose 0.15% to 0.7168 while dollar index slips 0.03% to 93.58.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.04$ to $40.98 per barrel as of writing amid demand concerns continue to weigh. Earlier on, positive inventory data from the API have help the commodity to regain some support. However, the momentum was short-lived as market remains concerned over demand outlook due to raging COVID-19 pandemic, thus limiting the upside of the commodity. On the other hand, gold price jumps 0.11% to $1953.35 a troy ounce at the time of writing following ongoing weakness in the greenback.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
22:00 USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 44.3% 15.3%
22:30 CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories 4.892M -2.088M
02:00

(30th)

USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 93.35. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 94.40, 95.00

Support level: 93.35, 92.30

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2960. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2885.

 

Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3055

Support level: 1.2885, 1.2785

 

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1695. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1775.

 

Resistance level: 1.1775, 1.1830

Support level: 1.1695, 1.1620

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 105.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction toward the higher level.

 

Resistance level: 106.15, 106.95

Support level: 105.05, 104.30

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7115. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its after toward the resistance level at 0.7295.

 

Resistance level: 0.7295, 0.7555

Support level: 0.7115, 0.7025

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6580. Due to lack of signal, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering into the market.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6480

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3355. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 1.3355.

 

Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3675

Support level: 1.3355, 1.3210

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9170. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.9170.

 

Resistance level: 0.9220, 0.9265

Support level: 0.9170, 0.9080

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the upward trend line. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the trend line.

 

Resistance level: 41.35, 42.50

Support level: 40.10, 39.00

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1931.20. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction toward the support level at 1931.20.

 

Resistance level: 1977.60, 2006.40

Support level: 1931.20, 1900.50

290720 Morning Session Analysis

29 July 2020                        Morning Session Analysis

US Dollar fall over the U.S. economic worries.

The dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies slumped over the backdrop of negative economic data from the United States on yesterday. According to Conference Board, the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence notched down significantly from the preliminary reading of 98.3 to 92.6, missing the market forecast at 94.5, which dialling down the market optimisms toward the economic progression from the Untied States. Besides, the US Dollar extend its losses following the US coronavirus cases have passed 4.3 million, with nearly 150,000 people killed in the country by the virus. The spiked of the coronavirus infections from the United States had prompted some U.S. states to roll back reopening measures, which causing tens of millions of people out of work. Nonetheless, investors would scrutinize the latest updates with regards of the latest monetary and fiscal stimulus from the Federal Reserve in order to receive further trading signals. Against the backdrop of the rising coronavirus cases that threaten the economic outlook, investors expected the Federal Reserve could opt for a more dovish tone during the FOMC meeting. As of writing, the Dollar index appreciated by 0.06% to 93.65.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.24% to $41.07 per barrel as of writing following the positive oil inventory data was released. According to American Petroleum Institute (API), the U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock had declined significantly from the previous reading of 7.544M to -6.829M, lower than the market forecast at -1.200M while spurring positive prospect for the future demand of this black-commodity. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.11% to $1956.40 per troy ouns as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
22:00 USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 44.3% 15.3%
22:30 CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories 4.892M -2.088M
02:00

(30hb)

USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Weekly: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 93.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 95.55, 97.65

Support level: 93.60, 91.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2890. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3035, 1.3195

Support level: 1.2890, 1.2720

 

EURUSD, Weekly: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1710. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.1710.

 

Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.2035

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1185

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 105.35. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 105.35, 106.40

Support level: 104.35, 103.15

 

AUDUSD, Weekly: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7120. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7365

Support level: 0.6815, 0.6505

 

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6625. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6690.

 

Resistance level: 0.6690, 0.6735

Support level: 0.6625, 0.6575

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3330. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3435.

 

Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3520

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3245

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9170. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9365, 0.9520

Support level: 0.9175, 0.9010

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trend line. MACD which illustrated increasing diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher toward resistance level at 41.30.

 

Resistance level: 41.30, 42.05

Support level: 40.45, 39.95

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1906.00. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1976.35, 2015.40

Support level: 1906.00, 1861.75

 

280720 Afternoon Session Analysis

28 July 2020                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Japanese Yen extend rally following heightening risk aversion.

During late Asian session, the safe-haven Japanese Yen continue to extend its gains relentlessly against the greenback and other currency pairs as tension between U.S and China and increasing coronavirus cases continue to dampened risk sentiment. The U.S. recorded a near record 74,000 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday according to Johns Hopkins University data. More than 1,000 Americans died each day between Tuesday and Friday, the worst death tally since late May. The numbers may lead to further closures and lockdowns. Also, recent escalation of tension between U.S and China also provide reason for investors to increase their bets on the safe-haven Yen where U.S. and China have both ordered the other shut a consulate in their respective countries, the China’s Houston consulate and the U.S. consulate in Chengdu. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for an end of “engagement,” a policy that has defined U.S.-China relations for nearly five decades. At the time of writing, USD/JPY plummets 0.58% to 105.51.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price fell 0.05% to $41.17 per barrel as of writing following increasing tensions between the two of the largest oil consumers in the world. Fears of a full blown diplomatic conflict over the next few months have dampened the expectation of a sharp increase in fuel demand, thus affecting the value of the commodity. At the same time, worsening coronavirus outlook also weigh on the market. On the other hand, gold price soars 1.77% to $1934.35 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid ongoing dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:00 EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) 86.2 89.3
20:30 USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)(Jun) 3.7% 3.5%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Weekly: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 93.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 95.55, 97.65

Support level: 93.70, 91.35

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2890. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2890, 1.3035

Support level: 1.2720, 1.2530

 

EURUSD, Weekly: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1710. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.2035

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1185

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 105.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 106.40.

 

Resistance level: 106.40, 107.35

Support level: 105.25, 104.40

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7120. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7365

Support level: 0.6815, 0.6505

 

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6690. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6615.

 

Resistance level: 0.6690, 0.6735

Support level: 0.6615, 0.6575

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3330. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3435.

 

Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3520

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3245

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9175. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9365, 0.9520

Support level: 0.9175, 0.9010

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 41.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 40.55

 

Resistance level: 41.70, 42.35

Support level: 40.55, 40.05

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1956.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1927.50.

 

Resistance level: 1956.80, 1972.75

Support level: 1927.50, 1898.45

 

 

 

280720 Morning Session Analysis

28 July 2020                        Morning Session Analysis

 

 

Dollar plunged amid US-Sino tension heightened.

Dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies failed to revive from its falling trend as exacerbating of tension between US and China lured investors to flee away from greenback market to ultimate safe haven instrument which is gold. According to the latest news, US consulate in Chengdu was being ordered to close down by China’s government, which seemingly treated as a retaliation against United States after their embassy in Houston was being taken over by the US on last Friday. Relation between these two countries has hit a boiling point in years over issue such as blaming each other on the responsibility of covid-19’s outbreak as well as enacted security legislation law in Hong Kong. The tit-for-tat retaliation between these two biggest economy bodies flared up the tension to another new level while the novel of Covid-19 is threatening the global economy health. As of now, market participant are still eyeing on the renewed tension between US and China, while heeding on the development of vaccine as well. During Asian early trading session, dollar index dropped 0.84% to 93.65.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciated by 0.41% to $41.75 per barrel as market believes that the new round of stimulus plan will able to revitalize the US economy, sparked up the market confidence toward the oil future demand. Beside, gold price up 1.19% to $1965.40 a troy ounce amid renewed tensions between US and China while pandemic remains.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
22:00 USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 98.1 94.5
04:30

(29th)

CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 7.544M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 93.35. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 94.40, 95.00

Support level: 93.35, 92.30

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2895. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.2850.

 

Resistance level: 1.2895, 1.2960

Support level: 1.2850, 1.2790

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1710. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1835.

 

Resistance level: 1.1835, 1.1935

Support level: 1.1710, 1.1620

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 105.00. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 105.00.

 

Resistance level: 106.15, 106.95

Support level: 105.05, 104.30

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7115. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its after toward the resistance level at 0.7295.

 

Resistance level: 0.7295, 0.7555

Support level: 0.7115, 0.7025

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6580. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6755.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6480

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3355. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3210.

 

Resistance level: 1.3355, 1.3505

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3045

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9220. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 0.9220.

 

Resistance level: 0.9220, 0.9265

Support level: 0.9170, 0.9080

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 42.50.

 

Resistance level: 42.50, 43.55

Support level: 41.35, 40.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1931.20. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1977.60.

 

Resistance level: 1977.60, 2006.40

Support level: 1931.20, 1900.50

 

270720 Afternoon Session Analysis

27 July 2020                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Japanese Yen extend rally following heightening risk aversion.

During late Asian session, the safe-haven Japanese Yen continue to extend its gains relentlessly against the greenback and other currency pairs as tension between U.S and China and increasing coronavirus cases continue to dampened risk sentiment. The U.S. recorded a near record 74,000 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday according to Johns Hopkins University data. More than 1,000 Americans died each day between Tuesday and Friday, the worst death tally since late May. The numbers may lead to further closures and lockdowns. Also, recent escalation of tension between U.S and China also provide reason for investors to increase their bets on the safe-haven Yen where U.S. and China have both ordered the other shut a consulate in their respective countries, the China’s Houston consulate and the U.S. consulate in Chengdu. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for an end of “engagement,” a policy that has defined U.S.-China relations for nearly five decades. At the time of writing, USD/JPY plummets 0.58% to 105.51.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price fell 0.05% to $41.17 per barrel as of writing following increasing tensions between the two of the largest oil consumers in the world. Fears of a full blown diplomatic conflict over the next few months have dampened the expectation of a sharp increase in fuel demand, thus affecting the value of the commodity. At the same time, worsening coronavirus outlook also weigh on the market. On the other hand, gold price soars 1.77% to $1934.35 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid ongoing dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:00 EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) 86.2 89.3
20:30 USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)(Jun) 3.7% 3.5%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 94.35. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 93.15.

 

Resistance level: 94.35, 95.70

Support level: 93.15, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2810. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3005.

 

Resistance level: 1.3005, 1.3200

Support level: 1.2810, 1.2660

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1715. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1715.

 

Resistance level: 1.1715, 1.1810

Support level: 1.1610, 1.1505

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 105.40. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 106.00, 106.60

Support level: 105.40, 104.60

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7160. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7160, 0.7290

Support level: 0.7030, 0.6935

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6670. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal with starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6745

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6490

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3330. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3685

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3195

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9165. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9315

Support level: 0.9165, 0.9075

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat near the current support level 41.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 42.45.

 

Resistance level: 42.45, 43.85

Support level: 41.00, 39.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 1899.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1950.25.

 

Resistance level: 1950.25, 1989.75

Support level: 1899.05, 1857.95

270720 Morning Session Analysis

27 July 2020                        Morning Session Analysis

 

Dollar plunged amid the weakness of its economy.

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies loss its grip while further extend its losses to the lowest level in nearly 2 years as US economy stalling and high geopolitical risk urged investor to run away from dollar market. Since the outbreak of Covid-19, US economy has been tampered by the virus’s fallout significantly as strictly imposition of country lockdown from local government has sent the entire economy into freezing stage. Besides, recent economic data from US has also showed no sign of strong recovery to be happened in near term as the pandemic in US remains while total reported cases surpassed 4 million as of last week. Moreover, it is also noteworthy that the prospect of greenback market remains faded as investors are expecting Washington will fork out trillions of money to limit the viral damage which caused by the pandemic. Last but not least, investor are also eyeing on the development of tension between US and China in order to determine the direction of greenback. As of now, dollar index dropped 0.10% to 94.35.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciated by 0.70% to $41.00 per barrel as market worries over the pandemic overshadowed the previous gains of this black commodity product. However, the development of vaccine is still the main catalyst to determine the oil market future. Besides, gold price rose 0.35% to 1906.65 a troy ounce amid uncertainty risk of pandemic and US-Sino issue remain unsolved.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:00 EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) 86.2 89.3
20:30 USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)(Jun) 3.7% 3.5%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 94.40. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses toward the support level at 93.85.

 

Resistance level: 94.40, 95.00

Support level: 93.85, 93.10

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2790. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.2730.

 

Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2850

Support level: 1.2730, 1.2665

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1555. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1710.

 

Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.1845

Support level: 1.1555, 1.1365

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 106.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term.

 

Resistance level: 106.35, 106.65

Support level: 106.00, 105.60

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7115. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7025.

 

Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7295

Support level: 0.7025, 0.6810

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6580. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering into the market.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6480

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3355. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.3505.

 

Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3675

Support level: 1.3355, 1.3210

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9220. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9160.

 

Resistance level: 0.9220, 0.9265

Support level: 0.9160, 0.9080

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 41.35. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 40.10.

 

Resistance level: 41.35, 42.50

Support level: 40.10, 39.00

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1913.25 MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1913.25, 1927.80

Support level: 1905.85, 1896.60

240720 Afternoon Session Analysis

24 July 2020                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Deadlock of Post-Brexit negotiation limited pound gains.  

Pound sterling which act one of the major currency was having mixed pattern at the recent high level as negotiation between UK and EU faced stumble while they are approaching the deadline of transition period, which is on 31th December 2020. According to the reported news from The Guardian, Michael Barnier revealed that their trade and security deal with UK are unlikely to be reached by the end of this year as both parties are insisting their own hard stance to strive for the best future trade deal for themselves. In details, EU complained that UK refuse to back down from demanding ‘near total exclusion’ of EU vessels in UK, leaving with no progress in the latest round of negotiation. Besides, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes over a principle draft of Post Brexit deal can be outlined by the end of this month has been ‘extinguished’. As of now, investors are eyeing on the next week informal talks before a formal round of negotiation in Mid of August to gauge the direction of pound. During Asian trading session, GBP/USD inched up 0.11% to 1.2750.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciated by 0.44% to $41.25 per barrel while heightening of US-China tensions and virus reported cases increased continue weigh on the black commodity product. As of now, market participant will put their attention on the vaccine development as it will further determine the direction of oil price. Besides, gold price rose 0.02% to $1888.55 a troy ounce as market worries over the pandemic heightened.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   JPY                                          National Sports Day

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 12.0% 8.0%
15:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 45.2 48.0
16:30 GBP – Composite PMI 47.7
16:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 50.1
16:30 GBP – Services PMI 47.1
22:00 USD – New Home Sales (Jun) 676K 700K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Weekly: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 95.95. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward support level at 94.10.

 

Resistance level: 95.95, 97.80

Support level: 94.10, 91.80

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2520. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2820.

 

Resistance level: 1.2820, 1.2980

Support level: 1.2520, 1.2310

 

EURUSD, Weekly: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1450. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1710.

 

Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.2035

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1185

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 106.40. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 107.40, 107.80

Support level: 106.75, 106.40

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7120. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after its successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7365

Support level: 0.6815, 0.6505

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 0.6735. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6735, 0.6875

Support level: 0.6465, 0.6250

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently near the support level ta 1.3345. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3500, 1.3665

Support level: 1.3345, 1.3205

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9390. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9190.

 

Resistance level: 0.9390, 0.9520

Support level: 0.9190, 0.9010

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 41.05. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 42.10, 43.05

Support level: 41.05, 40.05

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1881.70. however, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1898.90, 1909.85

Support level: 1881.70, 1868.90