GCM Asia – Latest Analysis

220121 Afternoon Session Analysis

22 January 2021                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie slips amid weak data.

During late Asian session, the Australian dollar which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have fell following the release of a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data recently. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistic, Australia’s consumer spending which is represented by Retail Sales have fell by 4.2% in December, lower than market expectation for a 1.5% drop and previous reading of 7.1%. The decline in consumer spending in the holiday season have raise doubts on the strength of recovery from coronavirus and support the RBA’s dovish stance, thus exerting pressure for the pair. At the time of writing, AUD/USD fell 0.21% to 0.7744.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 1.34% to $52.23 per barrel as of writing following worries on new COVID-19 cases in China. Following latest development, the commercial hub of Shanghai reported its first locally transmitted cases in two months on Thursday. Concerns towards new pandemic restrictions in China due to rising new cases will curb fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil importer, thus dragging the value of the commodity. On the other hand, gold price remains steady and edge higher 0.12% to $1861.65 a troy ounce at the time of writing following ongoing dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM)(Dec) -3.8% 1.2%
16:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 58.3 57.5
17:30 GBP – Composite PMI (Jan) 50.7 50.7
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 57.3 57.3
17:30 GBP – Services PMI (Jan) 49.9 49.9
21:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Nov) 1.0% 0.3%
23:00 USD – Existing Home Sales(Dec) 6.69M 6.55M


Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following retracement from the resistance level at 90.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 89.80.

 

Resistance level: 90.45, 90.90

Support level: 89.80, 89.15

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded within a range while currently testing the support level at 1.3685. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3795, 1.3860

Support level: 1.3685, 1.3625

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2145. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2215.

 

Resistance level: 1.2215, 1.2310

Support level: 1.2145, 1.2075

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 103.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 103.65.

 

Resistance level: 103.65, 104.15

Support level: 103.40, 103.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7735. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7785, 0.7815

Support level: 0.7735, 0.7670

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7165. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7305

Support level: 0.7165, 0.7110

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2640. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2720.

 

Resistance level: 1.2720, 1.2805

Support level: 1.2640, 1.2545

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.8845. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.8920, 0.8980

Support level: 0.8845, 0.8800

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 53.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 51.95

 

Resistance level: 53.70, 55.65

Support level: 51.95, 50.00

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded within a range while currently testing the support level at 1861.20. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1899.95, 1931.00

Support level: 1861.20, 1827.50

220121 Morning Session Analysis

22 January 2021               Morning Session Analysis

 

Euro ticked up following the neutral stance of view given by ECB.

The single currency of European Union lingered around the highest level in one week after European Central Bank (ECB) decided to remain its unfold monetary policy in the yesterday meeting. First, ECB maintained its interest rate at 0.00% as expected, while continue the purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total amount of €1,850 billion until at least end of March 2022. Besides, ample of liquidity will be provided to the bank through the third series of targeted longer term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) in order to support bank for lending firms and households. Besides, the chairman of ECB Christine Lagarde reiterated that the ongoing coronavirus pandemic is still posing “serious risk” to the euro zone economy, as lockdown measure are tightened across the region which halted the large part of economic activity. Christine Lagarde also emphasized that future outlook of economy remained vulnerable and weak as the rollout of vaccines has proven to be challenging, and behind-scheduled vaccination progress has slowed down the recovery pace of economy. Hence, ECB did not rule out the possibility of further support will be unveiled if it is necessary to the EU economy. During Asian early trading session, the pair of EUR/USD up 0.05% to 1.2168.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.08% to $52.98 per barrel as of writing while market awaiting for further catalyst such as US inventory data in order to gauge the further direction of oil price. Yesterday, Biden administration pauses federal drilling program in the latest series of executive order aimed to fight against climate change. Besides, gold price up 0.01% to $1870.40 a troy ounce amid weakening of dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM)(Dec) -3.8% 1.2%
16:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 58.3 57.5
17:30 GBP – Composite PMI (Jan) 50.7 50.7
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 57.3 57.3
17:30 GBP – Services PMI (Jan) 49.9 49.9
21:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Nov) 1.0% 0.3%
23:00 USD – Existing Home Sales(Dec) 6.69M 6.55M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 90.25. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 89.90.

 

Resistance level: 90.25, 90.60

Support level: 89.90, 89.60

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3700. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.

 

Resistance level: 1.3800, 1.3900

Support level: 1.3700, 1.3620

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2155. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2205.

 

Resistance level: 1.2205, 1.2250

Support level: 1.2155, 1.2120

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 103.35. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 103.70.

 

Resistance level: 103.70, 104.00

Support level: 103.35, 103.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7770. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7735.

 

Resistance level: 0.7770, 0.7820

Support level: 0.7735, 0.7670

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7165. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7235.

 

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7305

Support level: 0.7165, 0.7090

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2625. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2695.

 

Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2775

Support level: 1.2625, 1.2530

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.8855. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.8820.

 

Resistance level: 0.8855, 0.8885

Support level: 0.8820, 0.8795

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 53.75. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 52.60.

 

Resistance level: 53.75, 54.50

Support level: 52.60, 51.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1861.05. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.

 

Resistance level: 1871.90, 1895.55

Support level: 1861.05, 1842.90

 

210121 Afternoon Session Analysis

21 January 2021                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Loonie soars following BoC rate decision.

During late Asian session, the Canadian dollar which traded against the greenback and its peers have jumped following recent rate decision and hawkish note from Band of Canada. The Bank of Canada has maintained its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected and stated that inflation is set to return to 2% in a sustainable manner by 2023. In terms of bond-buying scheme, BoC stated that it would adjust the program as the economy recovers. Following signals of further tapering down, the Loonie experience a surge in demand. At the same time, the central bank also upbeat on its economic outlook and noted that the outlook is now stronger and secure thanks to earlier-than-expected availability of vaccines and significant ongoing policy stimulus. At the time of writing, USD/CAD fell 0.11% to 1.2613.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price extends its retreat and fell 0.02% to $53.05 per barrel as of writing following IEA adjust its expectation on demand outlook. IEA expects crude oil demand to increase by 5.5 million barrels a day for 2021, 0.3 million lesser than previously forecast. The IEA has lowered their forecast following the tightening of movement control orders in the European zone as well as some districts in China that could affect economic activity and crude oil demand. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.02% to $1872.30 a troy ounce at the time of writing following ongoing dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 

11:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) 

11:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Press Conference 

23:00                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
11:00 JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10%
20:45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 0.00% 0.00%
21:30 USD – Building Permits (Dec) 1.635M 1.604M
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 965K 868K
21:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) 9.1 12.0

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following retracement from the resistance level at 90.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 89.80.

 

Resistance level: 90.45, 90.90

Support level: 89.80, 89.15

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3685. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3685, 1.3795

Support level: 1.3625, 1.3545

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2075. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2145, 1.2215

Support level: 1.2075, 1.1985

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 103.65. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 103.10.

 

Resistance level: 103.65, 104.15

Support level: 103.10, 102.60

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7785. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7785, 0.7815

Support level: 0.7735, 0.7670

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7165. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7235.

 

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7305

Support level: 0.7165, 0.7110

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2630. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2720

Support level: 1.2545, 1.2470

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8920. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.8855.

 

Resistance level: 0.8920, 0.8980

Support level: 0.8855, 0.8800

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 53.75. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 52.03.

 

Resistance level: 53.75, 55.85

Support level: 52.05, 50.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1861.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1884.40.

 

Resistance level: 1884.40, 1912.30

Support level: 1861.25, 1838.65

210121 Morning Session Analysis

21 January 2021               Morning Session Analysis

 

Canadian dollar surged amid BoC positive tone toward economic outlook.

The Canadian dollar received huge buy-in momentum yesterday as Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to maintain their interest rate at current level while adopting a positive tone on the economy’s future outlook. In the BoC meeting, board members of the central bank unanimously agreed to remain its interest rate at historic low level as the economic recovery were still interrupted by the resurgence of virus. The spread of Covid-19 virus becoming more serious not only in Canada but around the world, thus the timeline for effective vaccination programme plays an important role on saving the economy from further downfall. Besides, the Governor of BoC Tiff Macklem revealed that the earlier-than anticipated arrival of vaccine were potentially able to save lives and limits the fast-spreading virus, therefore the exceptional degree of monetary stimulus currently in place is appropriate for the nation. Besides, The bank of Canada also unfolded their growth forecast for year 2021, stating that contraction would be seen in first quarter of 2021 but expecting the economic activity will recover to pre-pandemic level in late 2021. As of writing, the pair USD/CAD fall by 0.10% to 1.2617.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.17% to $52.97 per barrel as of writing amid surprise build in recent inventory level. According to the API, US Crude Oil Inventories data came in at 2.562M, higher than the economist forecast at -0.300M, such unexpectedly build dragged down the appeal of this black commodity market. Besides, gold price rose 0.03% to $1871.40 per troy ounce amid weakening of US dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                     Market                 Event

11:00                    JPY                       BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

11:00                    JPY                       BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)

11:00                    JPY                        BoJ Press Conference

23:00                    EUR                       ECB Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
11:00 JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10%
20:45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 0.00% 0.00%
21:30 USD – Building Permits (Dec) 1.635M 1.604M
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 965K 868K
21:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) 9.1 12.0

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 90.60. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 90.25.

 

Resistance level: 90.60, 91.10

Support level: 90.25, 89.90

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3620. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3700.

 

Resistance level: 1.3700, 1.3805

Support level: 1.3620, 1.3535

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2120. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair undergo technical correction in short term.

 

Resistance level: 1.2120, 1.2155

Support level: 1.2065, 1.2020

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 103.70. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the 103.35.

 

Resistance level: 103.70, 104.00

Support level: 103.35, 103.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7735. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7770.

 

Resistance level: 0.7770, 0.7820

Support level: 0.7735, 0.7670

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7165. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7235.

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7305

Support level: 0.7165, 0.7090

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2625. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2775

Support level: 1.2625, 1.2530

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8915. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward higher level.

 

Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8955

Support level: 0.8885, 0.8855

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 53.75. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 52.60.

 

Resistance level: 53.75, 54.50

Support level: 52.60, 51.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1861.05. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1874.95.

 

Resistance level: 1874.95, 1895.55

Support level: 1861.05, 1842.90

200121 Afternoon Session Analysis

20 January 2021                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar plunged following comments from Yellen on COVID-19 relief.

During late Asian session, the dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have fell following investors are digesting the recent comments from U.S Secretary of Treasury nominee Janet Yellen on big spending. During her Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday, Janet Yellen has urged Congress to “act big” on COVID-19 relief and worry about debt later arguing that the economic benefits far outweigh the risks of a higher debt burden. Besides that, she also added that the dollar’s value should be determined by market force and U.S should oppose any attempts by other countries to manipulate the currency values. The comments have help mitigate the risk aversion tone and knocking down the appeal of the greenback as a safe-haven currency. As Joe Biden is inaugurated as U.S President later in the day, investors will now shift their focus on the event to attain any signals for the market. At the time of writing, dollar index slips 0.14% to 90.30.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.70% to $53.34 per barrel as of writing following expectation of U.S stimulus continue to support the sentiment. Following the inauguration of Joe Biden as president and big spending comments from Janet Yellen, expectation of incoming Joe Biden administration will push through more, massive U.S. stimulus measures boosted hopes for fuel demand, thus pushing the price of the commodity. On the other hand, gold price extends gains and rose 0.49% to $1849.18 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:00                  CAD                    BoC Monetary Policy Report

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.3% 0.5%
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) -0.3% -0.3%
21:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%
23:00 CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 90.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 89.80.

 

Resistance level: 90.45, 90.90

Support level: 89.50, 89.15

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3625. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3695.

 

Resistance level: 1.3695, 1.3795

Support level: 1.3625, 1.3545

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2145. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2145, 1.2215

Support level: 1.2075, 1.1985

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently near the support level at 103.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 104.15, 104.70

Support level: 103.65, 103.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7735. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7735, 0.7785

Support level: 0.7670, 0.7610

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded within a range while currently near the support level at 0.7110. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7165, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7110, 0.7015

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2710. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2825, 1.2925

Support level: 1.2710, 1.2630

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8920. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.8855.

 

Resistance level: 0.8920, 0.8980

Support level: 0.8855, 0.8800

 

CrudeOIL, Weekly: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 50.05. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 60.20.

 

Resistance level: 60.20, 65.60

Support level: 50.05, 41.75

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1828.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1859.10.

 

Resistance level: 1859.10, 1879.15

Support level: 1828.80, 1808.05

200121 Morning Session Analysis

20 January 2021               Morning Session Analysis

 

Euro standstill after Germany extends lockdown measures.

The single currency in European Union was failed to extend its gains early today amid Germany lockdown restriction which were due to expire on 31st of January has been extended for a longer period in order to rein in the pandemic of Covid-19. In the pandemic-related meeting, Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel and 16 state leaders reached a consensus where they agreed to extend measures to 14th February as the ongoing lockdown measure has been successfully bring down the number of infections obviously. Besides, they also said that the burden of hospital and healthcare unit is still at a very high level despite there was a slightly decline amid ongoing lockdown restriction. In the new lockdown measure, non-essential economy sector activities are not allowed to run, such as shops, cafes and restaurants are to remain closed. Moreover, people are restricted to wear medical mask while using local public transport and in shops under the new rules. As the economic activity were to halt for a longer period of time, investor concerns that the economy may return back into recession stage which may further pressure the value of euro currency. During Asian early trading session, the pair of EUR/USD dropped 0.01% to 1.2128.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.28% to $53.10 per barrel as of writing amid heightening of expectations that US stimulus package may able to support the US economic recovery, leading to a strong recovery of demand toward this black commodity. Besides, gold price rose 0.01% to $1840.60 a troy ounce as the new variant of virus cases rose significantly and triggered investors to seek for safe-haven asset.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                     Market                 Event

23:00                 CAD                   BoC Monetary Policy Report

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.3% 0.5%
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) -0.3% -0.3%
21:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%
23:00 CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%


Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 90.60. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 90.25.

 

Resistance level: 90.60, 91.10

Support level: 90.25, 89.90

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3620. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3710.

 

Resistance level: 1.3710, 1.3805

Support level: 1.3620, 1.3535

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2120. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2155.

 

Resistance level: 1.2155, 1.2205

Support level: 1.2120, 1.2070

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 104.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the lower level.

 

Resistance level: 104.00, 104.35

Support level: 103.70, 103.35

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7665. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7735.

 

Resistance level: 0.7735, 0.7770

Support level: 0.7670, 0.7635

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7165.

 

Resistance level: 0.7165, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7090, 0.7015

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level at 1.2775. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2695.

 

Resistance level: 1.2775, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2695, 1.2625

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.8885. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward higher level.

 

Resistance level: 0.8885, 0.8915

Support level: 0.8855, 0.8820

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 52.60. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 53.75.

 

Resistance level: 53.75, 55.40

Support level: 52.60, 51.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1842.90. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1842.90.

 

Resistance level: 1842.90, 1861.05

Support level: 1825.40, 1803.40

190121 Afternoon Session Analysis

19 January 2021                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie rose on upbeat data, risk-on mood.

During late Asian session, the Australian dollar which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have jumped as the pair benefited from positive data and risk-on mood in the market. On data front, Australia’s ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence eases to 108.7 from 108.9. Even so, the confidence was higher than last year with the sentiment in January 2020 was impacted by the bushfires. Besides that, HIA New Home Sales also reached remarkable heights with the reading of 32.5%, almost double compared to previous reading in November. It was also the second strongest month in 20 years of survey. On top of that, the momentum was further lifted by positive development on coronavirus cases. According to ABC News, there was zero new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases from the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and Victoria. At the time of writing, AUD/USD rose 0.37% to 0.7707.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains mixed in overall and edge higher 0.42% to $52.31 per barrel as of writing with investors weighing optimism of further stimulus measure against increasing fears for fuel demand and COVID-19. Positive economic data from China, the top crude oil importer globally, helped boost sentiment and showed that refinery output rose 3% to a new record in 2020. However, the positivity was offset by the growing number of COVID-19 cases globally and the restrictive measures that affect fuel demand. Market currently waits for more catalyst to determine further direction for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.03% to $1837.98 a troy ounce following dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 55.0 60.0

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 90.55. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 91.15, 91.60

Support level: 90.55, 89.80

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3620. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3620, 1.3695

Support level: 1.3545, 1.3480

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2075. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2140.

 

Resistance level: 1.2140, 1.2215

Support level: 1.2055, 1.1905

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 103.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 104.15.

 

Resistance level: 104.15, 104.70

Support level: 103.70, 103.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7640. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7735.

 

Resistance level: 0.7735, 0.7820

Support level: 0.7640, 0.7570

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7110. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7165.

 

Resistance level: 0.7165, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7110, 0.7015

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2720. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2825, 1.2925

Support level: 1.2720, 1.2630

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8915. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.8825.

 

Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8980

Support level: 0.8825, 0.8755

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 52.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 52.65, 53.80

Support level: 51.60, 50.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1828.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1859.10.

 

Resistance level: 1859.10, 1897.45

Support level: 1828.80, 1808.05

190121 Morning Session Analysis

19 January 2021               Morning Session Analysis

 

Euro wobbles amid pessimistic eurozone outlook.

The single currency in European Union was having mixed pattern yesterday while hovering near the lowest level in six weeks as ongoing pandemic continue overshadowed the EU economy performance. Amidst another wave of covid-19 crisis, several EU countries were forced to reimplement lockdown measure to combat and limit the fast-spreading virus. With more nations under lockdowns and restrictions, majority of the economic activity in EU halted which subsequently exerted huge pressure on Europe’s recovery and constituting a clear deterioration of economic outlook. Furthermore, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also revealed that she wanted to unleash a “mega-lockdown” after a spike in death toll and confirmed virus cases in Germany last week. Over such a backdrop, investors are eyeing on the upcoming ECB meeting which scheduled on Thursday’s night in order to gauge the further direction of Euro. As Covid-19 crisis was making EU economic imbalances worse, it hinted that ECB may step in by easing their monetary policy or vowing EU government to unveil further fiscal support in order to boost up the recovery pace of economy. As of writing, the pair of EUR/USD dropped 0.01% to 1.2075.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.05% to $52.10 per barrel as of writing amid market concern over the possibility of further lockdown in Europe may damper the oil market future demand outlook. Besides, gold price rose 0.01% to $1837.40 a troy ounce amid worsening of pandemic covid-19 sharpen the market safe-haven behaviour.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                     Market                 Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 55.0 60.0

 


Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 90.60.

 

Resistance level: 91.10, 91.60

Support level: 90.60, 90.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3620.

 

Resistance level: 1.3620, 1.3710

Support level: 1.3535, 1.3470

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2070. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2120.

 

Resistance level: 1.2120, 1.2155

Support level: 1.2070, 1.2020

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 103.70. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 104.00, 104.35

Support level: 103.70, 103.35

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7665. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7735.

 

Resistance level: 0.7735, 0.7770

Support level: 0.7670, 0.7635

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7165.

 

Resistance level: 0.7165, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7090, 0.7015

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level at 1.2770. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2695.

 

Resistance level: 1.2770, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2695, 1.2625

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8915. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.8885.

 

Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8955

Support level: 0.8885, 0.8855

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level at 51.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 52.60.

 

Resistance level: 52.60, 53.75

Support level: 51.65, 50.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1825.40. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1842.90.

 

Resistance level: 1842.90, 1861.05

Support level: 1825.40, 1803.40

180121 Afternoon Session Analysis

18 January 2021                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie traded flat amid mixed economic data from China.

The Australian Dollar was traded within a range over the backdrop of mixed economic data from China on Monday. According to National Bureau of Statistics of China, the China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had notched up significantly from the previous reading of 4.9% to 6.5%, exceeding the market forecast at 6.1%. Meanwhile, the China Industrial Production had also increased significantly from the preliminary reading of 7.0% to 7.3%, which also fared better than the market expectation at 6.9%. Since the Australian economic growth relies heavily on China, any slowdown in the economy of China will affect the demand for Australian’s exportation, which having a strong impact on Australia Dollar. Hence, as both crucial economic data from China region had fared better than expectation, which dialled up the market optimism toward the economic progression in the Australia. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the Aussie was limited following the negative Chinese’s retail sales data was released. According to latest statistics, the China Retail Sales came in at 4.6%, worse than the market forecast at 5.5%. As of writing, AUD/USD appreciated by 0.01% to 0.7702.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.08% to $52.00 per barrel as of writing. The crude oil price extends its losses as investors remained concern over the spiking numbers of Covid-19 cases in the world, which spurring negative prospect for the oil demand in future. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.05% to $1828.80 per troy ounce as of writing amid rising trade tensions between Canada and US following U.S. President-elect Joe Biden claimed that the he is planning to cancel the keystone XL Pipeline Permit on his 1st day in office.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   USD                                        Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

21:30                  GBP                    BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 90.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 91.15.

 

Resistance level: 91.15, 91.60

Support level: 90.55, 89.80

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently near the support level at 1.3550. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3620, 1.3695

Support level: 1.3550, 1.3455

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2160. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2140, 1.2215

Support level: 1.2055, 1.1905

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 103.70. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 104.15, 104.70

Support level: 103.70, 103.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7685. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7820, 0.7940

Support level: 0.7685, 0.7605

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7110. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7165, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7110, 0.7015

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2720. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2825.

 

Resistance level: 1.2825, 1.2925

Support level: 1.2720, 1.2630

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.8915. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8980

Support level: 0.8825, 0.8755

 

CrudeOIL, Weekly: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 50.05. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 60.20, 65.60

Support level: 50.05, 41.75

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1828.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1859.10, 1897.45

Support level: 1808.05, 1776.95

180121 Morning Session Analysis

18 January 2021               Morning Session Analysis

 

Pound sterling slumped amid recession risk heightened.

Pound sterling which act as one of the major currencies that being traded in the FX market retraced from the highest level in 2.5 years as ongoing lockdown restriction tampered the pound’s appeal. Earlier of the month, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided to re-implement lockdown measure across entire UK as the total confirmed cases had proved that UK virus outbreak was out of control. The economy took a hit badly from restrictions put in place in order to curb the pandemic, as huge part of economic activities was being forced to stall. On data front, UK GDP data came in at -2.6%, marking the worst fall since last year’s June, while economist expecting a further decline could be seen in the first three months of 2021 amid ongoing renewed lockdown measure, which would put the UK back in recession. Besides, UK manufacturing data has recorded a reading of 0.7%, weaker than economist expectation at 0.9%, indicating a dwindling recovery within the billow of virus. During Asian early trading session, the pair of GBP/USD depreciated by 0.01% to 1.3586.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price rebounded by 0.23% to $52.14 per barrel as of writing. In the last trading session, oil price slumped significantly amid US oil rig count increased for the eight consecutive weeks. According to the Baker Hughes, US Oil Rig Count data came in at 287, showing an increase of 13 oil rig while comparing to the previous reading of 275. Besides, gold price dropped 0.09% to $1827.00 a troy ounce as surging of US 10 years treasury yield lifted up the appeal of dollar, pressing down the gold price.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                     Market                 Event

All Day                  USD                                     Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                     Market                 Event

21:30                 GBP                   BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
10:00 CNY – GDP (QoQ)(Q4) 4.9% 6.1%
10:00 CNY – Industrial Production (YoY)(Dec) 7.0% 6.9%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 90.60. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 91.10.

 

Resistance level: 91.10, 91.60

Support level: 90.60, 90.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3620.

 

Resistance level: 1.3620, 1.3710

Support level: 1.3535, 1.3470

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2070. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2120.

 

Resistance level: 1.2120, 1.2155

Support level: 1.2070, 1.2020

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 103.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 104.00.

 

Resistance level: 104.00, 104.35

Support level: 103.70, 103.35

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7735. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7680.

 

Resistance level: 0.7735, 0.7770

Support level: 0.7680, 0.7635

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7165. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7090.

 

Resistance level: 0.7165, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7090, 0.7015

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2770. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2695.

 

Resistance level: 1.2770, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2695, 1.2625

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8915. However, MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the higher level.

 

Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8955

Support level: 0.8885, 0.8855

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 52.60.

 

Resistance level: 52.60, 53.75

Support level: 51.65, 49.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1825.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1842.90, 1861.05

Support level: 1825.40, 1803.40

150121 Afternoon Session Analysis

15 January 2021                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro bewildered following mixed ECB stance.

Euro took a slight hit during mid-Asian trading session after European Central Bank’s December meeting minutes shows mixed signals with regards to Euro zone economic recovery. In the meeting minutes, ECB President Christine Lagarde remains confident of Euro zone economic recovery for 2021 despite renewed virus curbs and challenging start to vaccination program. ECB forecasts remains “very plausible” and that “there is no reason to believe the forecast would be wrong at this point of time”. A resurgence of coronavirus cases across Europe has forced the enactment of tougher restriction that could dampen economic recovery at the start of the year. However, Lagarde cautioned that it would be a “concern” for the central bank if member states of EU extends their lockdown after the end of March. She added that some uncertainties continue to cloud over EU economic recovery which may require ECB to provide continuous support in terms of monetary stimulus. The stance portrayed by ECB shows that loose monetary policy setting would continue throughout 2021 in order to provide support to the economy. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD fell 0.07% to 1.2148.

 

As for commodities, crude oil price was traded flat at around $53.56 per barrel. Investors will place their attention towards oil rig count data from the US in order to gauge the country’s oil production trend and level. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.03% to $1,851.98 a troy ounce following stronger greenback.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15.00 GBP – GDP (MoM) 0.4%
15.00 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) 1.7% 0.9%
15.00 GBP – Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 10.2%
21.30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.9% -0.1%
21.30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% 0.4%
21.30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -1.1% -0.2%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 90.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 89.80.

 

Resistance level: 90.55, 91.15

Support level: 89.80, 89.15

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3695. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3695, 1.3795

Support level: 1.3620, 1.3450

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2140. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2215, 1.2310

Support level: 1.2140, 1.2055

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 103.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 104.15, 104.70

Support level: 103.70, 103.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7695. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7820, 0.7940

Support level: 0.7695, 0.7605

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7235. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7165.

 

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7305

Support level: 0.7165, 0.7115

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2630. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2720, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2520

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8915. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8980

Support level: 0.8825, 0.8755

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 53.85. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 53.85, 54.95

Support level: 52.55, 51.45

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1843.50. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1897.45, 1952.70

Support level: 1843.50, 1776.95

150121 Morning Session Analysis

15 January 2021                 Morning Session Analysis

 

Dollar up on further stimulus expectation.

During early Asian session, the dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs remains steady and rose as expectation of a further substantial stimulus measure continue to support the demand for the greenback. According to CNN, President-elect Joe Biden will look to outline plans later Thursday of a fiscal stimulus package of around $2 trillion. Due to the prospect of higher stimulus plans, government borrowing also expected to increase which weighed on the U.S government bonds and caused the benchmark rate to soars above 1% for the first time since March. On top of that, another that factor that supported the dollar is concerns that the Fed could reduce its monetary support sooner than expected following economic recovery. At the time of writing, dollar index edge higher 0.11% to 90.16.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.15% to $53.72 per barrel as of writing following OPEC revision on demand growth and prospect of further stimulus. According to its report, global world economic growth was revised marginally higher from last month’s report and estimated to contract by 4.1%, compared to the previous month’s forecast of -4.2%. At the same time, hope that the incoming Biden administration will quickly push through yet another round of stimulus payment in the amount of $1400 per person also help bolstering the commodity price. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.08% to $1846.90 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar strength.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15.00 GBP – GDP (MoM) 0.4%
15.00 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) 1.7% 0.9%
15.00 GBP – Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 10.2%
21.30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.9% -0.1%
21.30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% 0.4%
21.30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -1.1% -0.2%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 90.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 89.65.

 

Resistance level: 90.55, 91.40

Support level: 89.65, 88.90

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3700. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the support level 1.3490.

 

Resistance level: 1.3700, 1.3855

Support level: 1.3490, 1.3300

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2145. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2295.

 

Resistance level: 1.2295, 1.2395

Support level: 1.2145, 1.2010

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 103.70. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 104.50, 105.15

Support level: 103.70, 102.90

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7785. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7785, 0.7885

Support level: 0.7655, 0.7555

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7175. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7280.

 

Resistance level: 0.7280, 0.7380

Support level: 0.7175, 0.7095

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2680. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2540.

 

Resistance level: 1.2680, 1.2830

Support level: 1.2540, 1.2390

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.8920. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement in short term towards the support level 0.8840

 

Resistance level: 0.8920, 0.8985

Support level: 0.8840, 0.8775

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 52.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 54.60.

 

Resistance level: 54.60, 57.30

Support level: 52.70, 50.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1815.15.

 

Resistance level: 1859.65, 1895.30

140121 Afternoon Session Analysis

14 January 2021                 Afternoon Session Analysis

US House approves Trump impeachment move.

In a historic move, US President Donald Trump became the first president to receive motion to be impeached twice after 10 of his fellow Republicans joined Democrats in House of Representative to charge him of inciting violent rampage at the Capitol last week. The vote in Democratic-controlled House garnered 232-197 votes, although it is unlikely that Trump would be impeached prior to his end of term. Amid calls for Trump to resign in House of Representative, US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that the impeachment trials in the Senate will not begin until next week. McConnell commented that “even if the Senate process were to begin this week, no verdict would be reached until after Trump had left the office”. However, US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said that if Trump is convicted at his Senate impeachment trial, the chamber could hold a separate vote to bar him from running for office again in the future. Following rising political risk in the US, the dollar index fell 0.10% to 90.18 during mid-Asian trading session.

 

As for commodities, crude oil price extended its losses by 0.12% to $52.75 per barrel following global rise of coronavirus cases. Recently, China, the world’s largest oil consumer reported its largest daily tally of new coronavirus cases in more than 10 months as infection in north-eastern Heilongjiang province tripled, underscoring the threat of lockdown ahead of major national holiday. Such demeanour may dampen the momentum of economic recovery in China and in return, lower oil demand. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.01% to $1,843.42 a troy ounce following risk aversion in the market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20.30                     EUR                                        ECB Monetary Policy Statement

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15.00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ) 8.5%
21.30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 787K 780K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 89.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 90.55.

 

Resistance level: 90.55, 91.15

Support level: 89.80, 89.15

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3620. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3700, 1.3795

Support level: 1.3620, 1.3450

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2140. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2215, 1.2310

Support level: 1.2140, 1.2055

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 104.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 104.15, 104.70

Support level: 103.70, 103.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7695. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7820, 0.7940

Support level: 0.7695, 0.7605

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7165. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7305

Support level: 0.7165, 0.7115

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2685. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2685, 1.2650

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8915. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8980

Support level: 0.8825, 0.8755

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 52.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 53.90, 55.10

Support level: 52.70, 51.55

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1839.10. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1862.55, 1888.60

Support level: 1839.10, 1817.05

140121 Morning Session Analysis

14 January 2021                 Morning Session Analysis

 

Dollar held gains following CPI data, stabilize yields

During early Asian session, the dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have rose back into positive territory following the recent release of CPI data and stabilising U.S treasury yields. On data front, U.S Core CPI for December was in line with market expectation of 0.1%, although it was still slightly lower than previous reading. However, US showed annual CPI stood at 1.4% in December, slightly above the 1.3% expected. On the other hand, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell more than 6 basis points from a 10-month high. They last traded 2 basis points lower at 1.12%, helping the greenback traded higher against its peers. Market also expects that a huge sum in government borrowing to fund stimulus plan would possibly lead to a higher U.S rates and make the dollar attractive, thus buying into the greenback. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.27% to 90.25.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.15% to $52.76 per barrel as of writing following EIA lowered global oil demand growth forecast. Despite with EIA reported a draw in crude inventories, it was offset by EIA’s negative view on demand forecast. According to EIA in its latest estimate, global oil demand is expected to grow by 5.6 million barrels per day in 2021 compared to the 2020 low of 92.2 million bpd. the growth forecast now around 200,000 bpd lower compared to last month’s outlook. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.11% to $90.25 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid dollar strength.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20.30                     EUR                                        ECB Monetary Policy Statement

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15.00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ) 8.5%
21.30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 787K 780K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 90.55.

 

Resistance level: 90.55, 91.40

Support level: 89.65, 88.90

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3700. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3490.

 

Resistance level: 1.3700, 1.3855

Support level: 1.3490, 1.3300

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2150. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2295, 1.2395

Support level: 1.2150, 1.2010

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 103.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 104.50.

 

Resistance level: 104.50, 105.15

Support level: 103.70, 102.90

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7785. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7655.

 

Resistance level: 0.7785, 0.7885

Support level: 0.7655, 0.7555

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7175. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7280, 0.7380

Support level: 0.7175, 0.7095

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2680. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2830, 12955

Support level: 1.2680, 1.2540

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.8840. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.8920.

 

Resistance level: 0.8920, 0.8985

Support level: 0.8840, 0.8775

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 52.70. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 54.60, 57.30

Support level: 52.70, 50.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1859.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1815.15.

 

Resistance level: 1859.65, 1895.30

Support level: 1815.15, 1769.75.

130121 Afternoon Session Analysis

13 January 2021                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie slips on weak data, virus woes.

During late Asian session, the Australian dollar which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have failed to extend its gains and retreat as surging cases in China coupled with weak data exert some selling pressure for the currency. On data front, Australia’s Job Vacancies for three months to November dropped below 59.4% prior to 23.4%. The data reflects a weakness in jobs number that challenges policymakers and could prompt Aussie government to potential extend relief measures. On coronavirus front, China’s virus numbers jumped to the highest in five months with 115 new confirmed cases on the mainland (55 the previous day) including 107 local infections. Besides that, rising global coronavirus also challenge risk sentiment. At the time of writing, AUD/USD slips 0.07% to 0.7765.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price continues to extend its gains and jumped 1.05% to $53.77 per barrel as of writing following U.S inventory drop. According to API, crude inventories in the U.S. dropped by 5.8 million barrels last week to around 484.5 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price rebounds 0.28% to $1859.81 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid weakening dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21:30 USD – Core CPI (MoM)(Dec) 0.2% 0.1%
23:30 CrudeOIL – Crude OIL Inventories -8.010M -2.266M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 89.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 90.55, 91.15

Support level: 89.80, 89.15

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3690. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3690, 1.3840

Support level: 1.3520, 1.3315

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2165. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2250.

 

Resistance level: 1.2250, 1.2330

Support level: 1.2165, 1.2075

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 103.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 103.05.

 

Resistance level: 103.70, 104.15

Support level: 103.05, 102.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7685. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7805.

 

Resistance level: 0.7805, 0.7940

Support level: 0.7685, 0.7560

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7235. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7305

Support level: 0.7165, 0.7110

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2695. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2695, 1.2650

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8915. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.8825.

 

Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8980

Support level: 0.8825, 0.8755

 

CrudeOIL, Weekly: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 50.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 60.20.

 

Resistance level: 60.20, 65.50

Support level: 50.00, 41.75

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1865.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1865.55, 1899.40

Support level: 1825.85, 1771.20