GCM Asia – Latest Analysis

230721 Afternoon Session Analysis

23 July 2021                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Euro slips following dovish ECB.

The Euro which traded against the dollar and other currency pair have fell after ECB delivered a dovish note on meeting. As expected, the ECB has maintained its interest rates and monetary policy settings unchanged. However, the ECB has announced new guidelines for monetary policy by allowing inflation to hover above the 2% target for a longer period of time. The action was taken after the ECB expect that the rise in inflation was temporary and they wanted to ensure that all aspects of the economy had recovered significantly before implementing monetary policy tightening. In a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde commented that the recent increase in coronavirus cases would be a major threat to the momentum economic recovery in the EU. Therefore, they will continue to relax policy for a longer period before tightening monetary policy. At the time of writing, EUR/USD fell 0.03% to 1.1775.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.16% to $71.62 per barrel as of writing following optimism towards rising demand and tightening global market. Investors continue to bet on the broader positive fundamentals following rollout of vaccine that permits economies to reopen. Besides that, Baker Hughes expects the crude oil demand will continue to rise in the second half of 2021 until next year. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.06% to $1803.22 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar rebound.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -1.40% 0.50%
15:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 65.1 64.1
16:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 63.9 62.7
16:30 GBP – Services PMI 62.4 62
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -7.20% -2.00%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 92.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 93.10.

 

Resistance level: 93.10, 93.45

Support level: 92.70, 92.05

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level 1.3735. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3890, 1.3990

Support level: 1.3735, 1.3575

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1785. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1705.

 

Resistance level: 1.1785, 1.1880

Support level: 1.1705, 1.1625

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 110.40. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 109.70.

 

Resistance level: 110.40, 111.00

Support level: 109.70, 109.20

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7340. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7415.

 

Resistance level: 0.7415, 0.7485

Support level: 0.7340, 0.7245

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7000. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7075

Support level: 0.6925, 0.6825

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2565. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2675.

 

Resistance level: 1.2675, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2565, 1.2470

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9200. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9200, 0.9245

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9090

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 70.85. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 74.60.

 

Resistance level: 74.60, 76.90

Support level: 70.85, 68.40

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the resistance level 1792.10. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1814.80.

 

Resistance level: 1814.80, 1831.85

Support level: 1792.10, 1762.20

230721 Morning Session Analysis

23 July 2021                        Morning Session Analysis

Dollar slumped over the bearish data.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs slumped over the backdrop of the string of bearish economic data yesterday. According to Department of Labor, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims notched up significantly from the previous reading of 368K to 419K, worse than the market forecast at 350K. Besides, U.S Existing Home Sales came in at 5.86M, which also weaker than market expectation at 5.90M. As both economic data fared worse than expectation, which dialed down the market optimism toward the economic progression in United States. Market participants expected that the Federal Reserve would likely to extend its expansionary monetary policy plan to boost up the economic momentum. Nonetheless, the losses experienced by the US Dollar was limited amid risk-off sentiment in the FX market following many countries reported a spiking number of Delta Variant. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.04% to 92.80.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price extends its gains by 0.18% to 72.15 per barrel as of writing. The continued signs of global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic due to the rapid process of the vaccination program had spurred positive prospect for this black-commodity. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.01% to $1807.12 per troy ounces amid weakening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -1.40% 0.50%
15:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 65.1 64.1
16:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 63.9 62.7
16:30 GBP – Services PMI 62.4 62
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -7.20% -2.00%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 92.70. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 93.25, 94.10

Support level: 92.70, 92.00

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3740. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3900, 1.3980

Support level: 1.3740, 1.3565

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1850. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1725.

 

Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1955

Support level: 1.1725, 1.1635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 109.75. However, MACD which illustrated increasing diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 110.45, 110.95

Support level: 109.75, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7320. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7410.

 

Resistance level: 0.7410, 0.7495

Support level: 0.7320, 0.7240

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6915. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7120.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7305

Support level: 0.6915, 0.6770

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2585. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2585, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2440, 1.2275

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9230. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9135.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9305

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 71.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 71.80, 76.20

Support level: 66.35, 61.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1798.15. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1813.05.

 

Resistance level: 1813.05, 1832.25

Support level: 1798.15, 1788.95

 

 

 

220721 Afternoon Session Analysis

21 July 2021                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Aussie fell following increasing covid cases.

The Australian dollar which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs remains pressured and fell as Australia covid infections hit 10 months high and triggering concerns for Australia’s economy recovery. Following latest development, Australia’s New South Wales have recorded the highest daily infections at 122 since the outbreak began in June. With the coronavirus situation escalate in the NSW, neighboring states such as Queensland have already planned to close its border to NSW and reimposed social distancing rules. New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian also warned that the number of cases could go even higher. On data front, downbeat data also further added selling pressure for the pair. The NAB Business Confidence for the second quarter have eased to 17, lower than market expectation of 21. At the time of writing, AUD/USD fell 0.11% to 0.7345.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $70.01 per barrel as of writing despite with a surprise build in U.S oil inventories. According to EIA, crude oil inventories rose 2.108 million barrels, completely opposite from market expectation with a decrease of -4.466 million barrels. Despite that, market remains hopeful and continue to bet on fuel consumption recovery. On top of that, JPMorgan also expect the crude oil demand will hover at 99.6 million barrels per day which is higher than the first quarter. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.31% to $1797.95 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar rebound.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19.45                     EUR                       ECB Monetary Policy Statement

20.30                     EUR                       ECB Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
19.45 EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Jul) -0.50% -0.50%
19.45 EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.25%
19.45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 0.00% 0.00%
20.30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 360K 350K
22.00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Jun) 5.80M 5.90M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 92.65. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the recent formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 93.10, 93.45

Support level: 92.70, 92.05

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3735. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the recent formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3735, 1.3890

Support level: 1.3575, 1.3470

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1785. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1880.

 

Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.1950

Support level: 1.1785, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 110.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 109.70.

 

Resistance level: 110.40, 111.00

Support level: 109.70, 109.20

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7340. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the recent formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7415.

 

Resistance level: 0.7415, 0.7485

Support level: 0.7340, 0.7245

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6925. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7000.

 

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7075

Support level: 0.6925, 0.6825

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2565. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2675.

 

Resistance level: 1.2675, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2565, 1.2470

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9195. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9135.

 

Resistance level: 0.9195, 0.9245

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9090

 

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 70.85. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 70.85, 74.60

Support level: 68.40, 66.25

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1792.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1814.80, 1831.85

Support level: 1792.10, 1762.20

220721 Morning Session Analysis

22 July 2021                        Morning Session Analysis

Dollar slumped amid risk-on sentiment.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs retraced from its recent high following the global stock market rebounded significantly, which spurring risk appetite in the global financial market while diminishing market demand on the safe-haven US Dollar. In earlier, the spiking numbers of the Delta variant had increased the investors’ concern, which prompting the global stock markets to drop sharply on Monday. Nonetheless, the losses experienced by the US Dollar was limited amid optimism toward the new infrastructure spending bill from US President Joe Biden. US Senate, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin claimed that they are very close to achieve on the bipartisan infrastructure plan. Analysts speculated that such infrastructure plan would able to enhance the economic momentum in the United States. As for now, investors would continue to scrutinize updates with regards of Covid-19 development as well as further economic data to gauge the likelihood movement for the US Dollar. As of writing, the Dollar Index surged 0.06% to 92.80.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.14% to $70.60 per barrel as of writing. The crude oil price surged significantly yesterday amid technical correction following it suffered huge drop in the earlier this week. Market participants remained optimism that the rapid process of the vaccination would able to enhance the oil demand in future. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.01% to $1802.20 per troy ounces amid weakening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -1.40% 0.50%
15:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 65.1 64.1
16:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 63.9 62.7
16:30 GBP – Services PMI 62.4 62
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) -7.20% -2.00%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 92.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 93.25, 94.10

Support level: 92.70, 92.00

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3740. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3740, 1.3900

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3415

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1850. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1725.

 

Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1955

Support level: 1.1725, 1.1635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 109.75. However, MACD which illustrated increasing diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 110.45, 110.95

Support level: 109.75, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7320. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7410.

 

Resistance level: 0.7410, 0.7495

Support level: 0.7320, 0.7240

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6915. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7305

Support level: 0.6915, 0.6770

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2585. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2585, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2440, 1.2275

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9230. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9135.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9305

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 70.15. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 70.15, 76.20

Support level: 66.35, 61.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1813.05. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1788.95.

 

Resistance level: 1813.05, 1820.85

Support level: 1800.25, 1788.95

210721 Afternoon Session Analysis

19 July 2021                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Pound plunged amid Covid and Brexit woes.

The pound sterling has fell against the dollar and other currency pairs following fears of rapid spread of the Delta variant. The number of infections has soared due to rapid spread of highly contagious Delta variant coronavirus as UK had reported an increase of 39,950 new covid-19 daily cases. Resurgence of covid-19 in UK despite all social restrictions been lifted on Monday kept the investors to rethink of UK’s economic recovery which resulted in strong selling around the pair of GBP/USD and prompting investors to shift their portfolio to safe-haven US dollar. Meanwhile, pound sterling extended its losses from Brexit woes amid reports that the UK will threaten to deviate from the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit deal which could impact on the export of British’s food staples to Northern Ireland. Moreover, investors would continue to scrutinize on the update from Bank of England’s meeting on 5th of August and a dovish hold is expected after dovish comments from Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel, who prefers refraining from tightening policy. The mentioned issues had further dialed down investors’ optimisms toward the pound sterling as it may pose as a threat upon UK’s economic recovery. As of writing, GBP/USD was down 0.13% to 1.3616.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated 0.01% to $66.52 per barrel as of writing amid concerns of rising number of Delta variants coronavirus and agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.05% to $1808.44 a troy ounce as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -7.897M -4.466M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 92.70. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction towards the support level 92.70.

 

Resistance level: 93.05, 93.45

Support level: 92.70, 92.05

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3575. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.3675.

 

Resistance level: 1.3675, 1.3750

Support level: 1.3575, 1.3470

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1790. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1705.

 

Resistance level: 1.1790, 1.1880

Support level: 1.1705, 1.1625

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 109.70. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the recent formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 110.45.

 

Resistance level: 110.45,111.00

Support level: 109.70, 109.20

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7340. MACD which illustrate continuation of bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7245.

 

Resistance level: 0.7340, 0.7415

Support level: 0.7245, 0.7150

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6925. However, MACD which illustrate continuation of bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 0.6825.

 

Resistance level: 0.6925, 0.7000

Support level: 0.6825, 0.6725

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2675. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2770, 1.2870

Support level: 1.2675, 1.2565

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9195. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9245.

 

Resistance level: 0.9245, 0.9305

Support level: 0.9195, 0.9135

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat while currently testing near the support level 66.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to be traded higher towards the resistance level 68.40.

 

Resistance level: 68.40, 69.85

Support level: 66.25, 63.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1814.80. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1792.10.

 

Resistance level: 1814.80, 1831.85

Support level: 1792.10, 1762.20

210721 Morning Session Analysis

21 July 2021                        Morning Session Analysis

Delta fears had insinuated demand on safe-haven Dollar.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs extend its gains amid spiking numbers of Delta variant continue to diminish the risk appetite in the FX market, which prompting investors to selloff risky asset such as Pound Sterling and Australian Dollar into safe-haven Dollar. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the US Dollar was limited over the backdrop of bearish economic data from the US region. According to Census Bureau, U.S. Building Permits had notched down significantly from the previous reading of 1.683M to 1.598M, missing the market forecast at 1.700M while spurring negative prospect for the economic momentum in the United States. As for now, investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of Covid-19 development as well as further crucial economic data from United States to receive further trading signal. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.08% to 92.95.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.01% to $66.75 per barrel as of writing following bearish inventory data was released. According to American Petroleum Institute, U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at 0.806M, exceeding the market forecast at -4.167M. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.03% to $1810.30 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -7.897M -4.466M

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 92.70. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 93.25, 94.10

Support level: 92.70, 92.00

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3565. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3740, 1.3900

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3415

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1850. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1725.

 

Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1955

Support level: 1.1725, 1.1635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 109.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 110.45.

 

Resistance level: 110.45, 110.95

Support level: 109.75, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7320. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7410, 0.7495

Support level: 0.7320, 0.7240

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6915. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7305

Support level: 0.6915, 0.6770

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2770. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2595.

 

Resistance level: 1.2770, 1.2935

Support level: 1.2595, 1.2440

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9230. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9305

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 65.90. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 70.60, 76.20

Support level: 65.90, 61.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1813.05. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1813.05, 1820.85

Support level: 1800.25, 1788.95

 

 

200721 Afternoon Session Analysis

20 July 2021                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar jumped amid risk-off sentiment.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs surged following the threat of the Delta Coronavirus variant hit global equity markets, which stoked a shift in sentiment toward safe-haven asset such as US Dollar. The, significant drop in commodity price had also further diminished risk appetite in the global market while prompting investors to headed for the risk-free government bonds, which spurring further bullish momentum on the US Dollar. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the US Dollar was limited by the earlier dovish statement from Federal Reserve. According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell claimed that the U.S. economy was still a way offs from levels of the central bank’s goal before tapering its monetary support. Though, the overall statement from Fed remained vague, hence investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of the Fed’s monetary policy plan as well as Covid-19 development to gauge the likelihood movement for the US Dollar. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.05% to 92.85.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.01% to 66.85 per barrel as of writing. The oil market extends its losses amid the concerns over the spiking numbers of the Delta variant as well as the increase production from OPEC+ had continue to weigh down the appeal of this black commodity. On the other hand, the gold price depreciated by 0.10% to $1816.90 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Building Permits 1.683M 1.700M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 92.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 93.25, 94.10

Support level: 92.70, 92.00

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3740. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3740, 1.3900

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3415

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1850. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1955

Support level: 1.1725, 1.1635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 109.05. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 109.75.

 

Resistance level: 109.75, 110.45

Support level: 109.05, 108.55

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7320. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7410, 0.7495

Support level: 0.7320, 0.7240

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6915. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7305

Support level: 0.6915, 0.6770

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2770. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2770, 1.2935

Support level: 1.2595, 1.2440

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9230. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9135.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9305

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 65.90. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 70.60, 76.20

Support level: 65.90, 61.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1813.05. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1832.25.

 

Resistance level: 1832.25, 1851.85

Support level: 1813.05, 1789.00

 

 

200721 Morning Session Analysis

20 July 2021                        Morning Session Analysis

 

Rising coronavirus cases dampens market sentiment.

Pound sterling was traded lower against the US dollar over the backdrop of rising coronavirus cases in the region. On yesterday, pound sterling rebounds from its lower level following bullish signals with regards to Brexit. According to Reuters, UK is expected to request for more flexibility with regards to Northern Ireland Protocol to resolve tight custom checks issue. Earlier this year, following the official divorce of UK from EU, both countries have tightened their custom checks at Ireland borders after failing to reach a trade deal before the Brexit deadline. According to Brexit Minister David Frost, an announcement will be made with regards to latest development on the protocol later this week. Nonetheless, gains on the pound sterling were limited due to rising coronavirus cases in the region. According to statistics, UK has reported more than 39,000 new coronavirus cases last Sunday, up by 41.20% since mid of May. However, the government moved on to loosen social distancing SOP on yesterday despite calls to delay it as it may causes distress on the UK healthcare facility. As of writing, GBP/USD was down 0.03% to 1.3671.

 

As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.35% to $66.72 per barrel following technical correction from the lower levels. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.03% to $1,813.67 a troy ounce due to risk aversion as global coronavirus cases are on the rise.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Building Permits 1.700M 1.683M

 

 

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following a rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 92.85, 93.40

Support level: 92.55, 92.20

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3790, 1.3885

Support level: 1.3660, 1.3565

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.1810. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.1810, 1.1840

Support level: 1.1770, 1.1740

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrated diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 109.75, 110.15

Support level: 109.40, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following a retracement from higher levels. MACD which shows bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7400, 0.7490

Support level: 0.7335, 0.7260

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6925. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000

Support level: 0.6925, 0.6870

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains in mid-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2975

Support level: 1.2700, 1.2620

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a rebound near 0.9165. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9200, 0.9230

Support level: 0.9165, 0.9135

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which shows diminished bearish momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 67.30, 68.45

Support level: 66.30, 65.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggests its price to extend be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1815.65, 1820.35

Support level: 1811.05, 1805.00

190721 Afternoon Session Analysis

19 July 2021                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Aussie plunged amid Covid woes.

The Australian dollar which traded against the dollar and other currency pair have continue to extend its losses following increasing concerns towards Covid-19 situation in the Australia. According to ABC News, while the number of daily covid cases in Australia eased from the highest since September 2020 during the weekend, total cases in Australia’s state Victoria have added another 16 new cases to 280 while New South Wales also reported new 105 new cases. Following surging cases, some of the states such as Sydney and Victoria continue to extend lockdown that may affect economic recovery. Due to the situation, Australia PM Scott Morrison’s approval rating slumped to the lowest in over a year. At the time of writing, AUD/USD fell 0.35% to 0.7375.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 1.05% to $70.44 per barrel as of writing after OPEC+ reach an agreement on boosting supply. On Sunday, the OPEC+ ministers have agreed to increase oil supply around 400,000 barrels per day starting from August. The agreement has sparked concerns of inventory surplus after Covid-19 infections continue to spread in many countries. On the other hand, gold price has slip 0.02% to $1812.19 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid ongoing dollar strength.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 92.70. MACD which ongoing illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 92.70, 93.05

Support level: 92.05, 91.60

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3750. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3890, 1.3990

Support level: 1.3750, 1.3675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1790. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

 

Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.1950

Support level: 1.1790, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 109.70. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 110.45,111.00

Support level: 109.70, 109.20

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 0.7415. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7330.

 

Resistance level: 0.7415, 0.7485

Support level: 0.7330, 0.7245

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signals suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6925.

 

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7075

Support level: 0.6925, 0.6825

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2640. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2640, 1.2745

Support level: 1.2565, 1.2470

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9195. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signals suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 0.9135.

 

Resistance level: 0.9195, 0.9245

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9090

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the near support level 69.85. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 72.00, 74.60

Support level: 69.85, 68.35

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1812.15. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1853.00, 1885.35

Support level: 1812.15, 1767.55.

190621 Morning Session Analysis

19 July 2021                        Morning Session Analysis

Dollar jumped amid positive retail data.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs surged over the backdrop of positive retail sales data, which spurring expectation that the economic momentum in United States had started to recover in the second quarter. According to Census Bureau, U.S. Retail Sales had notched up significantly from the previous reading of -1.7% to 0.6%, exceeding the market forecast at -0.4%. Recently, most of the crucial economic data from United States had shown huge improvement, which increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve might start to taper its aggressive monetary policy. Contractional monetary policy would decrease the money circulation in the financial market, which increasing the appeal of the US Dollar. Nonetheless, investors would continue to remain their focus toward further economic data as well as Covid-19 development to gauge the likelihood movement for the currency. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.01% to 92.70.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.57% to $71.10 per barrel as of writing amid spiking numbers of Delta variant around the world had diminished the appeal for the demand of this black commodity. On the other hand, the gold price depreciated by 0.01% to $1812.20 per troy ounces amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 92.70. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 92.70, 93.25

Support level: 92.00, 91.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3750. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3900, 1.3980

Support level: 1.3750, 1.3565

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1850. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1955

Support level: 1.1725, 1.1635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.75. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 110.45, 110.95

Support level: 109.75, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7410. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7335

 

Resistance level: 0.7410, 0.7495

Support level: 0.7335, 0.7285

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6940. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7305

Support level: 0.6940, 0.6770

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2630. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2440, 1.2275

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9135. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9305

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 71.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 70.05.

 

Resistance level: 71.25, 72.75

Support level: 70.05, 68.70

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1813.05. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1832.25, 1842.45

Support level: 1813.05, 1788.95

160721 Afternoon Session Analysis

16 July 2021                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Pound slips amid coronavirus woes.

The pound sterling which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have slip following increasing new cases of coronavirus in the U.K. According to statistics from the British government, a total of 48,553 new Covid-19 cases has been recorded in the UK yesterday, an increase of 36.2% from the previous month. The U.K trade union said that due to the shortage of workers caused by coronavirus infection, the U.K government should tighten restrictions and implement lockdowns again. They also pointed out that due to lack of manpower, some companies had to pay up to three times the salary to make up for overtime. Although the number of cases in the UK has increased significantly, the U.K government insists that all social imprisonment standards will be relaxed on July 19 which have triggered further concern of another potential outbreak. At the time of writing, GBP/USD fell 0.04% to 1.3826.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains pressured and fell 0.11% to $71.30 per barrel as of writing following Delta coronavirus outbreak. The fast-spreading delta variant has swept across the globe, leading to renewed restrictions and crimping fuel demand. Southeast Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia have surpassed India in new daily cases this week, cementing its position as Asia’s new virus epicenter, while several of its neighbors are also seeing record case numbers. On the other hand, gold price retreat 0.06% to $1828.28 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar strength.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11:00                     JPY                        BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

11:00                     JPY                        BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)

11:00                     JPY                       BoJ Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jun) 1.90% 1.90%
20:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.70% 0.50%
20:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -1.30% -0.40%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 92.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 92.70, 93.05

Support level: 92.05, 91.60

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3890. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3750.

 

Resistance level: 1.3890, 1.3990

Support level: 1.3750, 1.3675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1790. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.1950

Support level: 1.1790, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 109.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 110.45.

 

Resistance level: 110.45, 111.00

Support level: 109.70, 109.20

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7415. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7485, 0.7545

Support level: 0.7415, 0.7330

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7075.

 

Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7135

Support level: 0.7005, 0.6925

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2565. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2640, 1.2735

Support level: 1.2565, 1.2470

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.9195. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 0.9195.

 

Resistance level: 0.9195, 0.9245

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9090

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 71.10. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 72.70, 74.60

Support level: 71.10, 69.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 1813.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a technical correction back towards the level 1813.05.

 

Resistance level: 1853.00, 1885.35

Support level: 1813.05, 1767.55.

160721 Morning Session Analysis

16 July 2021                        Morning Session Analysis

Dollar surged amid upbeat job data.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs surged over the backdrop of upbeat job data from United States yesterday, which spurring positive prospect toward the economic momentum in United States while increasing market demand on the US Dollar. According to Department of Labor, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims had declined significantly from the previous reading of 386K to 360K, indicating that the numbers of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits had declined as labor market in United States recovered. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the US Dollar was limited following negative manufacturing data was released. According to Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined significantly from the previous reading of 30.7 to 21.9, worse than the market forecast at 28.0. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.04% to 92.55.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.05% to $72.20 per barrel as of writing amid spiking numbers of Delta variant in the world had diminished the market demand on this black commodity. Nonetheless, investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of Covid-19 development in order to gauge the likelihood movement for the crude oil. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.04% to $1829.85 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

11:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)

11:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jun) 1.90% 1.90%
20:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.70% 0.50%
20:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -1.30% -0.40%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 92.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 92.70, 93.25

Support level: 92.00, 91.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3900. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3750.

 

Resistance level: 1.3900, 1.3980

Support level: 1.3750, 1.3565

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1850. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1955

Support level: 1.1725, 1.1635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.75. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 110.45, 110.95

Support level: 109.75, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7410. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7590, 0.7700

Support level: 0.7410, 0.7285

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6940. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7120.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7305

Support level: 0.6940, 0.6770

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2585. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2585, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2440, 1.2275

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9135. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9230.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9305

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 71.25. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 72.75, 73.80

Support level: 71.25, 70.05

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1832.25. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1832.25, 1842.45

Support level: 1813.05, 1797.65

 

 

 

150721 Afternoon Session Analysis

15 July 2021                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Aussie slips following mixed Australian jobs data.

The Australian dollar which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have fell due to unclear signals of Australia employment report for June. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Unemployment Rate improved to 4.9%, better than market expectation of 5.5%. However, Australia’s headline Employment Change have dropped below market expectation of 30.0k and previous reading of 115.2K to 29.1K while Participation Rate also came in at 66.2%, weaker than market expectation of 66.3%. On top of that, worsening COVID-19 conditions in Australia also continue to exert pressure for the Aussie. Recently, Aussie PM Scott Morrison stated that the vaccine rollout is two months behind. On the same line, World Bank Group President David Malpass stated that many countries in East Asia and Pacific may not fully vaccinate population until 2024 even as new variants emerge due to vaccine shortages. At the time of writing, AUD/USD fell 0.33% to 0.7461.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price plunged 0.78% to $72.44 per barrel at the time of writing amid rising fuel stocks and potential OPEC agreement. On data front, both gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week, according to a U.S. government report. Besides that, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were said to resolve the standoff where the latest proposal involves a higher output quota for the UAE. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.09% to $1824.58 a troy ounce as of writing amid dollar weakness.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) 5.60% 7.20%
14:00 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jun) -92.6K
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 373K 360K
20:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 30.7 28.3

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 92.70. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 92.05.

 

Resistance level: 92.70, 93.05

Support level: 92.05, 91.60

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3890. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3750.

 

Resistance level: 1.3890, 1.3990

Support level: 1.3750, 1.3675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1790. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound to resistance level 1.1880.

 

Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.1950

Support level: 1.1790, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 109.75. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 110.45, 111.00

Support level: 109.75, 109.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7485. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7415.

 

Resistance level: 0.7485, 0.7545

Support level: 0.7415, 0.7330

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7005. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7135

Support level: 0.7005, 0.6925

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2565. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2565, 1.2640

Support level: 1.2470, 1.2350

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.9135. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9195, 0.9245

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9090

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 72.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 71.10.

 

Resistance level: 72.75, 74.60

Support level: 71.10, 69.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1853.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1853.00.

 

Resistance level: 1853.00, 1885.35

Support level: 1813.05, 1767.55.

150721 Morning Session Analysis

15 July 2021                        Morning Session Analysis

Dollar slumped following Fed maintained the dovish tone.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs slumped following the Federal Reserve unleashed their dovish tone on yesterday, despite high inflation data was released. According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell claimed that the U.S. economy was still a way offs from levels of the central bank’s goal before tapering its monetary support. Hence, market participants speculated that the Federal Reserve would continue to implement its expansionary monetary policy in longer-term basis to boost back the economic momentum. Such aggressive monetary policy would continue to increase the money circulation in financial market, which diminishing the appeal of the US Dollar. On the economic data front, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) had notched up significantly from the previous reading of 0.8% to 1.0%, exceeding the market forecast at 0.6%, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.01% to 92.41.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.38% to $72.75 per barrel as of writing. The oil market extends its losses following Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reached a compromise over OPEC+ oil policy, giving the UAE a higher production baseline, according to OPEC+ source. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.05% to $1826.00 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) 5.60% 7.20%
14:00 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jun) -92.6K
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 373K 360K
20:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 30.7 28.3

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 92.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 92.00.

 

Resistance level: 92.70, 93.25

Support level: 92.00, 91.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3960. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3750.

 

Resistance level: 1.3960, 1.4100

Support level: 1.3750, 1.3565

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1850. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1955

Support level: 1.1725, 1.1635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its loses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 110.45, 110.95

Support level: 109.75, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7440. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7590.

 

Resistance level: 0.7590, 0.7700

Support level: 0.7440, 0.7285

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6940. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7120.

 

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7305

Support level: 0.6940, 0.6770

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2440. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2585.

 

Resistance level: 1.2585, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2440, 1.2275

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9135. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9230, 0.9305

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 72.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 71.20.

 

Resistance level: 72.75, 74.60

Support level: 71.25, 68.70

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1832.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1832.25, 1851.85

Support level: 1813.05, 1788.95

140721 Afternoon Session Analysis

14 July 2021                        Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Pound sterling slips following bleak U.K data.

The pound sterling which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs was traded lower over the backdrop of negative retail data from United Kingdom yesterday. According to British Retail Consortium (BRC), Retail Sales Monitor in June recorded a disappointing drop from previous 18.5% to 6.7%, indicating that the UK economy remained subdued while spurring further bearish momentum on the pound sterling. In addition, Pound sterling extended its losses amid the coronavirus pandemic outbreak remains unsolved in UK region, along with tussle between the U.K and EU surrounding the Brexit issue. On the other hand, the US dollar surged following the release of the latest upbeat US consumer inflation figures. The latest CPI report has further fueled market speculations that Fed to be tightening its monetary policy, hence prompting investors to shift their portfolio from pound sterling to US Dollar. As of writing, GBP/USD depreciated by 0.05% to 1.3787.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.33% to $73.65 per barrel as of writing. The oil price gains as investors anticipated shortage in oil supply and higher draw in global crude oil inventory later. The risk concerning spread of Delta-variant had also spurred negative prospect for the crude oil demand.  On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.26% to $1811.06 per troy ounces amid spiking numbers of the Covid-19 cases had diminished the risk appetite in the global financial market, which insinuating market demand on the safe-haven gold.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

22:00                      CAD                      BoC Monetary Policy Report

Tentative                CAD                      BOC Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.10% 2.20%
20:30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.80% 0.50%
22:00 CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -6.866M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 92.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it breaks the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 92.25, 92.70

Support level: 91.65, 91.30

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3890. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3750.

 

Resistance level: 1.3890, 1.3990

Support level: 1.3750, 1.3675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1790. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1705.

 

Resistance level: 1.1790, 1.1880

Support level: 1.1705, 1.1625

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 110.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 111.00, 111.60

Support level: 110.45, 109.75

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 0.7475. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7415.

 

Resistance level: 0.7475, 0.7545

Support level: 0.7415, 0.7330

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7010. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7010, 0.7075

Support level: 0.6925, 0.6825

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.2470. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2565.

 

Resistance level: 1.2565, 1.2640

Support level: 1.2470, 1.2350

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.9195. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 0.9135.

 

Resistance level: 0.9195, 0.9245

Support level: 0.9135, 0.9090

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 74.20. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 76.35.

 

Resistance level: 76.35, 78.75

Support level: 74.20, 71.15

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the resistance level 1814.00. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1767.55.

 

Resistance level: 1814.00, 1853.00

Support level: 1767.55, 1725.50