29 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback surged on the back of optimistic data!
Greenback rose by 0.35% against its major peers to 89.70 following release of a series of economic data that reflected faster-than-expected growth pace in the region. Overnight, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that GDP for the fourth quarter grew at a faster pace with 2.9% versus 2.5% seen on a year-over-year basis. In addition, consumer spending was last seen with an increase of 0.2% to 4.0%, achieving its largest gains in three years. These upbeat data have lifted investors’ sentiment for the Federal Reserve to adopt a slightly more aggressive pace of interest rates hikes in the future. At the meantime, bullish momentum of the Greenback was seen to be short-lived following U.S. President Donald Trump who discussed China’s trade practices with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Both parties are considered to “join forces to counter” China’s economic practices and alleged intellectual property theft. On the contrary, USD/JPY rose by 0.785 to 106.70 after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that the central bank should maintain its current framework for monetary easing in order to attain its inflation target.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounded from its session lows by 0.37% to $64.60 per barrel following investors’ optimism towards OPEC and its allies to curb excess stockpiles. Overnight, the commodity price suffered short-term losses after EIA reported U.S. crude inventories that increased by 1.643 million barrels last week versus the expected reading for a decline of 287,000 barrels. Likewise, gold price plummeted by 1.48% to $1326.95 a troy ounce as the safe-haven asset price was being continuously pressured by recent gains in dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
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Today’s Highlight Events
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Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | GBP – Nationwide HPI (MoM) | -0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Mar) | -22K | -15K | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 5.4% | 5.3% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q4) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 231K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jan) | 3.3% | 2.9% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – RMPI (MoM) (Feb) | 3.3% | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | 102.0 | 102.1 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 804 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.4100. The pair is currently testing the next support level at 1.4060. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if closure of candlestick below the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.4100, 1.4130
Support level: 1.4060, 1.4020
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking support level at 1.2330. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short- term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1.2330, 1.2350
Support level: 1.2290, 1.2260
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 107.00. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to trade lower as a technical correction towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 107.00, 107.30
Support level: 106.70, 106.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior its failure to break support level at 64.10. The commodity price is currently testing the resistance level at 64.60. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest crude oil price to extend higher if candlestick successfully closes above the said resistance level.
Resistance level: 64.60, 65.25
Support level: 64.10, 63.55
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1326.90. However, golden-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the safe-haven asset price to trade higher if it successfully breaks above the previous low.
Resistance level: 1326.90, 1335.00
Support level: 1316.10, 1308.80