13 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Yen triumphs as risk aversion persists.
Japanese yen still receive higher demand in the FX market following higher risk aversion around the globe. The currency received fresh boost from deepening civil unrest in Hong Kong after its international airport was closed for flights on Monday due to ongoing demonstration. On the other hand, a surprising election results in Argentina has sparked higher selloff upon its currency, stocks and bonds, which also increases the demand for safe-haven assets. Likewise, the Japanese yen received further support after 10-year US Treasury bond yield depreciated more than 4% on yesterday while major equity indexes eased more than 1%. Primary driver towards risk aversion from the US market was stemmed from ongoing trade war in between US and China which sees no stopping point that may carry on for a longer period of time. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY ticks up 0.02% to 105.33, hovering near prior 7-months low. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.09% to 0.6758. Australian dollar received some bullish momentum after NAB Business Confidence for the month of July came in at 4, slightly higher than forecast of 3. This shows that business sector which has lost significant momentum since early 2018 has recovered slightly for the time being.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.09% to $54.70 per barrel. Oil futures edged lower on Tuesday following higher expectation that future demand may diminish due to ongoing trade war in between US-China. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.41% to $1,517.38 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun) | 3.4% | 3.7% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jul) | 38.0K | 32.0K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) | -24.5 | -27.8 | – |
| 19:00 | CrudeOIL – OPEC Monthly Report | – | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 04:30
(14th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -3.400M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from the support level 97.10. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 97.50.
Resistance level: 97.50, 97.90
Support level: 97.15, 96.70
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2100. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2015.
Resistance level: 1.2100, 1.2175
Support level: 1.2015, 1.1955
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded flat while currently testing near the support level 1.1170. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1340
Support level: 1.1170, 1.1100
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 105.45. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 106.30, 106.90
Support level: 104.70,104.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6755. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6825.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6755, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level. However, due to lack of clear direction and momentum from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6585
Support level: 0.6430, 0.6375
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3230. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3290.
Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3230, 1.3145
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9705. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9755.
Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 53.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo a technical correction towards the current support level 53.05.
Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45
Support level: 53.05, 50.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1515.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1515.55, 1535.00
Support level: 1495.60, 1475.50