1 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar withers as short bet intensifies.
US dollar extended its losses while embracing fresh 14-months low as higher pessimism were spurred among market participants following a mixed pair of economic reports. The dollar index ticked up 0.04% to 92.72, not far from 14-months low of 92.55. The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index, a closely-monitored indicator by Institute for Supply Management (ISM) slipped to 58.9 in July, substantially lower than previous three-year’s high of 65.7 in June. In a separate report, National Associations of Realtors shown that pending home sales rose 1.5% in June, well above economist expectation of only 0.7%. However, the greenback received higher short bets amid a series of sluggish economic data which has curtail investor’s prospects for another rate hike this year. Against other major peers, EUR/USD eases from 30-months high by 0.13% to $1.1826 while GBP/USD hovers near 10-months high of $1.3205.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticked up 0.06% to $50.20 following the potential tightening of supply in the market. Similarly, gold price appreciates by 0.13% to $1,268.20 due to a weaker dollar which has boosted the precious metal appeal as an alternative asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CHF Switzerland – National Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 50.4 | 50.4 | 51.1 |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 58.3 | 58.3 | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) | 7K | -5K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 54.3 | 54.4 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 57.8 | 56.5 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD rebounded sharply from the bottom level of rising wedge while currently testing at the top level. A successful closure outside of the top level would signal a change in trend direction to extend its gains towards the next target at 1.3250.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3250, 1.3300
Support level: 1.3150, 1.3100
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD advances further upwards following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which continues to illustrate increasing upward momentum suggests EURUSD to extend its uptrend after breaking the resistance level at 1.1850.
Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1900
Support level: 1.1775, 1.1700
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY has recently broke out from the bottom level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to advance further downwards. A successful closure below the support level of 110.10 would suggest USDJPY to advance towards the next target at 109.40.
Resistance level: 110.85, 111.85, 114.30
Support level: 110.10, 109.40, 108.55
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price were traded higher following a rebound from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards suggests crude oil price to extend its upward momentum towards the next target at 50.85.
Resistance level: 50.85, 51.70
Support level: 50.00, 49.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price were traded in an uptrend while currently testing near the strong resistance level of 1270.00. A breakout from this level would indicate further upside bias for gold price to extend its gains towards 1276.40 thereafter.
Resistance level: 1270.00, 1276.40
Support level: 1261.10, 1250.30