09 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Draghi downplayed ECB’s decision; Dollar lifted by Dudley’s hawkish statement.
EUR/USD reversed gains by 0.08% to $1.2300 as of writing following a downplay decision by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi to drop a pledge in extending its Quantitative Easing (QE) program if required. The statement has been interpreted as they could be nearing a move towards normalizing their monetary policy measures. However, the pair tumbles later on as President Draghi downplayed the ECB’s decision by simply calling the decision to drop the easing bias as a ‘backward looking’ and ‘unanimous’ move. Thus, Euro tumbled while markets were convinced that the ECB was not on the verge of turning hawkish. On the contrary, dollar index found its support with gains of 0.11% to 90.22 following hawkish comments from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley. He expressed optimism by stating that ‘gradual’ rate hikes could mean four instead of three times prior to current developing strength of the U.S. economy, accelerating wage growth and higher-than-anticipated CPI inflation. His bullish view has drawn market participants’ attention away from the ongoing talk of trade wars as caused by President Trump’s tariff plan.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded lower by 2.3% to $60.37 per barrel following concerns over soaring output from the U.S. that has recorded a rise of 23% to 10.37 million barrels per day. Likewise, gold price was down by 0.17% following dollar that has successfully gained its support.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
01:40(Sat) USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (MoM) (Jan) | -2.5% | -0.4% | 2.7% |
| 09:30 | CNY – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| 09:30 | CNY – PPI (YoY) (Feb) | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) | -0.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Jan) | 21.4B | 21.1B | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Trade Balance (Jan) | -5.18B | -4.10B | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) | 200K | 204K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Participation Rate (Feb) | 62.7% | – | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 4.0% | 4.1% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Feb) | -88.0K | 17.5K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 5.9% | 5.9% | – |
| 02:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 800 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following its failure to break resistance level at 1.3900. The pair is currently testing the support level at 1.3790. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest GBPUSD to extend its losses if closure of candlestick below the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.3900, 1.4000
Support level: 1.3790, 1.3650
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior breaking support by 200-MA line and support level at 1.2310. The pair is currently testing the next support level at 1.2300. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if breakout at the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2340, 1.2380
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2270
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 105.50. The pair is currently testing the resistance level at 106.80. MACD histogram that shows increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend higher if closure of candlestick above the said resistance level is successful.
Resistance level: 106.80, 107.80
Support level: 105.50, 103.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following rebound from support level at 60.20. Formation of pin bar candlestick and positive divergence by MACD histogram would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 60.80.
Resistance level: 60.80, 61.80
Support level: 60.20, 58.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support by 200-MA line. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses towards the support level at 1316.20.
Resistance level: 1326.80, 1335.20
Support level: 1316.20, 1309.60