16 July 2020 Afternoon Session Analysis
Japanese Yen slumped over the risk-off sentiment.
Safe-haven Japanese Yen slumped on yesterday amid accelerating risk appetite over the vaccine hopes on yesterday, which stoked a shift in sentiment toward riskier asset such as the antipodean. According to Reuters, a small-scale study showed that the Mederna Inc’s experimental COVID-19 vaccine generated high levels of antibodies, which spurring positive prospect for the vaccine development in future. Wall Street analysts said the data from 45 healthy trial volunteers showed the vaccine could protect the volunteers against infection by the virus. As for now, there are no serious side effects were reported in the ongoing study, but more than half volunteers reported mild reaction such as fatigue, headache and muscle aches during the vaccine test. In fact, Moderna reiterated that they would be delivering around 500 million doses or more per year in 2021 if they successfully developed the vaccines. Nonetheless, the early-stage trial data is not a definite conclusion that the vaccine could be working effectively in humans, therefore investors would still need to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of the coronavirus’s vaccine development in order to gauge the likelihood movement for the pair. As of writing, USD/JPY surged 0.04% to 106.96.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.04% to $41.10 per barrel as of writing. The oil market extends its gains amid positive sentiment over the vaccine hopes, which providing further bullish momentum for this black-commodity. On the other hand, the gold market depreciated by 0.01% to $1809.70 per troy ounces as of writing amid risk-on sentiment in the FX market, diminishing the demand for the safe-haven commodity.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) | 1.0% | -0.4% | – |
| 14:00 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jun) | 528.9K | 250.0K | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 1,314K | 1,250K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | 27.5 | 20.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 12.4% | 5.0% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 95.85. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 97.55.
Resistance level: 97.55, 98.80
Support level: 95.85, 94.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2660. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.2510
Resistance level: 1.2660, 1.2810
Support level: 1.2510, 1.2340
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1420. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1320.
Resistance level: 1.1420, 1.1505
Support level: 1.1320, 1.1175
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 107.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 106.60.
Resistance level: 107.40, 108.00
Support level: 106.60, 106.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7195
Support level: 0.6935, 0.6820
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6580. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6490.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6490, 0.6370
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.3485. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.3485.
Resistance level: 1.3685, 1.3820
Support level: 1.3485, 1.3330
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9430. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9480.
Resistance level: 0.9480, 0.9550
Support level: 0.9430, 0.9365
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 41.30. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 37.70.
Resistance level: 41.30, 43.85
Support level: 37.70, 34.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded in a tight range following recent retracement from the resistance level 1817.10. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1790.05.
Resistance level: 1817.10, 1840.00
Support level: 1790.05, 1764.25