01 October 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar slumped on uncertainty over the US stimulus plan.
Dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies dipped following the U.S. lawmakers pledged to continue talks with regards of the latest economic stimulus plan. The U.S. government was expected to vote on the $2.2 trillion package on Wednesday, though failure to reach on any agreement had prompted the U.S. policymakers to push back the voting on the stimulus bill to Thursday. Nonetheless, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin touted progress on stimulus talks while reiterated that he was hopeful about getting a deal done. However, the losses experienced by the US Dollar was limited over the backdrop of the upbeat economic data on yesterday. According to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change notched up significantly from the previous reading of 481K to 749K, confounding market forecast for a reading up to 650K. Similarly, the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for last quarter came in at -31.4%, which fared better than the market expectation at -31.7%. At this time, investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of the latest economic stimulus plan as well as the Non-farm payroll data which will be released tomorrow in order to gauge the likelihood movement for the pair. As of writing, the Dollar index depreciated by 0.09% to 93.85.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.53% to $40.05 per barrel as of writing amid positive crude oil inventory data on yesterday. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories came in at -1.980M, much lower than the market forecast at 1.569M. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.14% to $1888.07 per troy ounces amid weakening in US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
18:00 EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 56.6 | 56.6 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 54.3 | 54.3 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 870K | 850K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 56.0 | 56.2 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently near the support level at 93.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 94.70, 96.05
Support level: 93.55, 92.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2915. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2915, 1.2990
Support level: 1.2825, 1.2755
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1750. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1750, 1.1880
Support level: 1.1615, 1.1415
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 105.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 105.40, 106.70
Support level: 104.60, 103.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7170. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7260
Support level: 0.7015, 0.6910
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6510. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6755.
Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.7110
Support level: 0.6510, 0.6265
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3395. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3235.
Resistance level: 1.3395, 1.3525
Support level: 1.3235, 1.3040
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9185. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9275, 0.9385
Support level: 0.9185, 0.9075
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 40.05. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 40.05, 40.55
Support level: 39.20, 38.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1902.90. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1852.15.
Resistance level: 1902.90, 1954.85
Support level: 1852.15, 1813.70