26 November 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remains weak on FOMC minutes, mixed data.
The dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs continue to extend its loss to nearly three month low during early Asian session after meeting minutes displays sign of Fed to tweak its bond-buying and also weak economic data. According to the FOMC minutes, FOMC members have witness general economic progress but still believe that the more action is needed in order to get the economy back to pre-COVID levels. Besides that, members have also discussed a range of options on bond purchases to support the recovery which include increasing the pace of purchases or shifting focus to a longer duration of bonds. On top of that, mixed numbers on U.S economic data also adding further pressure for the downfall. U.S GDP for the third quarter have missed market expectation of 33.2% with the actual reading of 33.1%. At the same time, initial jobless claims have also rose to 778K compared to market expectation of 730K, which once again displayed a weakness in U.S jobs market. Although durable goods order and new house sales came in better than expected, overall sentiment remains fixated on the weaker side. At the time of writing, dollar index slips 0.25% to $91.95 at the time of writing.
In the commodities market, crude oil price have soared to the highest levels since March and rose 0.06% to $45.79 per barrel as of writing amid falling stockpiles and ongoing vaccine hopes that continue to drive the market. According to EIA, crude oil inventories for the week ended Nov 20 have fell by 754,000, better than market expectation of an increase about 127,000 barrels. At the same time, vaccine hopes continue to provide boost for the market rally as market raised their demand outlook forecast for 2021. On the other hand, gold price remains weak and fell 0.02% to $1807.54 a troy ounce at the time of writing as optimism on vaccine continue to batter safe-haven markets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Thanksgiving Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19.30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
20.30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 92.10. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 91.00.
Resistance level: 92.10, 93.00.
Support level: 91.00, 90.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3470.
Resistance level: 1.3470, 1.3605
Support level: 1.3295, 1.3150
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1890. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1995.
Resistance level: 1.1995, 1.2125
Support level: 1.1890, 1.1760
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from high level while currently testing near the support level 104.25. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 105.10, 105.80
Support level: 104.25, 103.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7330. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction back towards the level 0.7330.
Resistance level: 0.7410, 0.7480
Support level: 0.7330, 0.7200
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6985. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction back towards the level 0.6985.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7155
Support level: 0.6985, 0.6910
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2995. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1.3105.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3240
Support level: 1.2995, 1.2890
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9080. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9190, 0.9295
Support level: 0.9080, 0.8990
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 46.20. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 46.20, 48.35
Support level: 43.95, 41.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near the current resistance level after it recent breaks below the level. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it breaks back above the resistance level 1816.25.
Resistance level: 1816.25, 1853.90
Support level: 1790.25, 1751.10