19 February 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar plunged amid downbeat labor data.
Dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six rival currencies sank after hitting 10 days high level amid the recent job data against the market expectation, exerting huge sell-off pressure in dollar market. As of last week, the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance unexpectedly increased significantly, raising the public worries over tepid growth in labor sector despite slowing down in Covid-19 infection. According to the Department of Labour, US Initial Jobless Claims data came in at 861K, missing the economist forecast at 765K while also slightly higher than the preliminary reading at 848K. With the backdrop of disappointing data, it transformed a huge pressure on Biden administration to push for $1.9 trillion stimulus package as soon as possible in order to regains the momentum of recovery. According to the latest news, House of Democrats are now finalizing the plan details, expecting it would be brought onto the table of House to vote by the end of next week. It is noteworthy that majority of the lawmakers hopes that the plan could be passed to Senate before the end of February as ongoing government-funded benefits will expire in mid of March. As of writing, dollar index falls 0.44% to 90.55.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciated by 0.65% to $60.00 per barrel as a report showed that Iraq has boosted their oil production significantly since the beginning of February. According to the Bloomberg, Iraq increased their production by 4.4% to 3.44 million barrels per day despite they have promised to restrain production last month. On the other hand, gold price ticked up 0.02% to $1776.50 per troy ounce amid weakening of US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM)(Jan) | 0.3% | -2.5% | – |
| 16:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 57.1 | 56.5 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Composite PMI | 41.2 | – | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 54.1 | – | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI | 39.5 | – | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Dec) | 2.1% | -2.0% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (MoM)(Jan) | 0.7% | -1.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 90.75. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 90.45.
Resistance level: 90.75, 91.10
Support level: 90.45, 90.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3950. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.4000.
Resistance level: 1.4000, 1.4050
Support level: 1.3950, 1.3845
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2065. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2105.
Resistance level: 1.2105, 1.2155
Support level: 1.2065, 1.2015
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 105.65. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 106.00, 106.45
Support level: 105.65, 105.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7775. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7775, 0.7815
Support level: 0.7725, 0.7670
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7165. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7240.
Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7300
Support level: 0.7165, 0.7105
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2685. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2685, 1.2740
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2545
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.8985. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.8920.
Resistance level: 0.8985, 0.9040
Support level: 0.8920, 0.8850
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 59.70. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 60.65, 61.70
Support level: 59.70, 58.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1770.75. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction toward the higher level.
Resistance level: 1784.95, 1810.10
Support level: 1770.70, 1757.70