16 March 2021 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar rose ahead of Fed decision and meeting.
During late Asian session, the dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have holding onto small gains while market turning their attention towards Federal Reserve meeting that will start later in the day. The Fed’s policy statement itself is expected to leave U.S. interest rates unchanged again at near zero as it has over the past year since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. However, investors also expect that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will at least express some concern over recent selloff in Treasury markets, which has consistently led the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to hit pre-pandemic highs above 1.6% over the past month. On the backdrop of U.S stimulus, vaccination and positive Fed expectation, market continue to price in while awaits for further signal. At the time of writing, dollar index edge higher 0.03% to 91.75.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.61% to $64.86 per barrel as of writing following concerns of stockpiles and Europe vaccine woes. In the U.S, investors are worrying that the stockpiles are rising due to refining operations have taken time to fully return. At the same time, news of EU countries suspends usage of AstraZeneca vaccine also weigh heavily on the commodity which could poses further threat for crude demand. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.02% to $1733.19 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar gains.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | 71.2 | 74.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb) | 5.9% | -0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb) | 5.3% | -0.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 91.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 92.45.
Resistance level: 92.45, 93.35
Support level: 91.25, 90.65
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently near the support level at 1.3870. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3925, 1.3990
Support level: 1.3870, 1.3805
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1900. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1960, 1.2020
Support level: 1.1900, 1.1845
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.20. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 109.20, 110.35
Support level: 108.05, 106.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7735. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7800, 0.7880
Support level: 0.7735, 0.7650
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7180. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7240.
Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7365
Support level: 0.7180, 0.7105
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2470. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2560, 1.2605
Support level: 1.2470, 1.2395
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9275. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9380, 0.9505
Support level: 0.9275, 0.9150
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 66.10. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 63.45.
Resistance level: 66.10, 68.00
Support level: 63.45, 61.45
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1679.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1771.30.
Resistance level: 1771.30, 1809.10
Support level: 1679.55, 1644.75