7 April 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar plummets despite IMF dovish tone regarding economic outlook.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major rival currencies managed to recover part of its previous losses after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) given its optimistic view with regard to the global future economic outlook. With the backdrop of the vaccine’s rollout, IMF is expecting the economy will be entered into a stronger recovery phase in the remaining time of year 2021. On the forecast front, IMF foresee the world economy to grow in a stronger pace at 6% in year 2021, while comparing to the January forecast at 5.5%. Besides, IMF also expects the global GDP to rise by 4.4%, higher than the previous estimate at 4.2%. On the other hand, IMF also revealed that the group is more confident that United States will likely undergo solid recovery in year 2021 while compared to other countries in the world, where they might take longer to return back to pre-pandemic level. The implementation of $1.9 trillion stimulus package and progressing vaccination program are likely the main reasons supporting the optimistic view of IMF toward the US economic outlook. Last but not least, the threat of pandemic is still remained as a major challenge to the global economy as of now, emphasized by IMF. Nonetheless, a significant drop in US Treasury Yield outweigh the IMF positive statement, urging the investors to sell-off US dollar tremendously. During Asian trading session, dollar index dropped 0.77% to 92.30.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price increased by 0.05% to $59.35 per barrel as increased in IMF global growth forecast boosted the appeal of this black commodity market. Moreover, a draw in US oil inventories level also further support the oil price to stand above $59.00 per barrel. According to API, US Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at -2.618M while the economist forecast at -1.325M. Besides, the gold prices rose by 0.03% to $1743.60 per troy ounce amid rising of market demand toward safe-haven asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
(8th)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Composite PMI (Mar) | 56.6 | 56.6 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Mar) | 56.8 | 56.8 | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Mar) | 60.0 | 60.5 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -0.876M | -1.325M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 92.60. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 92.10.
Resistance level: 92.60, 93.00
Support level: 92.10, 91.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3880. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3805.
Resistance level: 1.3880, 1.3990
Support level: 1.3805, 1.3755
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1830. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1880.
Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.1990
Support level: 1.1830, 1.1755
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.75. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 110.20, 110.80
Support level: 109.75, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7655. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7700.
Resistance level: 0.7700, 0.7755
Support level: 0.7655, 0.7600
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7030. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7105.
Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7080
Support level: 0.7030, 0.6945
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2530. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2600.
Resistance level: 1.2600, 1.2685
Support level: 1.2530, 1.2485
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9310. MACD which illustrated bearish bias signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9225.
Resistance level: 0.9310, 0.9370
Support level: 0.9225, 0.9140
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 59.30. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 57.40.
Resistance level: 59.30, 60.65
Support level: 57.40, 56.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1738.95. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1754.30, 1769.50
Support level: 1738.95, 1723.35