3 May 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar jumped following Fed Kaplan hawkish comment.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies managed to recoup from its previous losses while lingering near the 10 days high level amid Federal Reserve Kaplan called for conversation for tapering the bond purchase program. Last Friday, Kaplan has commented that Federal Reserve should start reducing the monthly bond buys as the economy is healing faster than expected while alerting the market about the imbalances in financial market. With the backdrop of Kaplan’s hawkish statement, it has increased the market optimism over the likelihood that Federal Reserve would tighten their monetary policy in the next meeting. Earlier last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cemented his view by revealing that it is too early to talk about reducing the bond purchase program now, as there is a long way to achieve their long term target of 2% inflation and full employment. Nonetheless, the different view that staked out from Kaplan triggered a huge buy-in pressure in dollar market. As of writing, the dollar index rose by 0.04% to 91.25.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.24% to $63.60 per barrel despite the nuclear talks between US and Iran in Vienna was smooth and progressive. According to Reuters, Iran negotiator revealed that Tehran expect US to lift their sanctions on oil based on the agreement so far in Vienna talks. Besides, the gold prices depreciated by 0.03% to $1768.45 a troy ounce amid the strengthening of dollar index.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day JPY Constitution Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 66.4 | 66.4 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 64.7 | 65.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 91.25. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 91.25, 91.60
Support level: 90.95, 90.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3840. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3800.
Resistance level: 1.3840, 1.3880
Support level: 1.3800, 1.3740
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2065. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1990.
Resistance level: 1.2065,1.2135
Support level: 1.1990, 1.1915
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 109.20. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 110.05.
Resistance level: 110.05, 110.80
Support level: 109.20, 108.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7700. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7760.
Resistance level: 0.7760, 0.7805
Support level: 0.7700, 0.7665
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7150. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7195.
Resistance level: 0.7195, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7150, 0.7110
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2390. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the resistance level at 1.2255.
Resistance level: 1.2390, 1.2510
Support level: 1.2255, 1.2105
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9110. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9185.
Resistance level: 0.9185, 0.9220
Support level: 0.9110, 0.9030
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 64.25, 66.25
Support level: 62.20, 60.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1766.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1787.05.
Resistance level: 1787.05, 1803.40
Support level: 1766.25, 1755.60