4 May 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar plummeted amid disappointing Manufacturing PMI data.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies retreated from the 10-days high level after the US released a downbeat economic data from the manufacturing sector. According to the Institute for Supply Management, US Manufacturing PMI data came in at 60.7, missing the economist forecast and previous reading at 65.0 and 64.7 respectively, indicating that the nation’s manufacturing sector remain weak and vulnerable under the shadow of pandemic fallout. With the release of disappointing data, US treasury yield showed an immediate effect where falling more than 0.40%, triggered a big wave of sell-off pressure in dollar index market. Other than that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dovish-titled comment on earlier last week continue to weigh on the gains of dollar index. In the meeting, Jerome Powell reiterated that they will remain their ultra-easing monetary policy for an unforeseeable period while aiming to unfold it only when full employment and 2% of targeted sustainable inflation rate achieved. As of writing, dollar index dropped by 0.35% to 90.97.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.09% to $64.60 per barrel as market optimism toward the future demand outlook outweighed the worries over virus’s outbreak in India. Recently, China’s strong figures and high vaccination rates in US pointed to a strong recovery in oil market demand. Besides, the gold prices rose by 0.03% to $1792.85 a troy ounce amid the dollar weakened.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision | 0.10% | 0.10% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 60.7 | 60.7 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 90.95. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 90.70.
Resistance level: 90.95, 91.25
Support level: 90.70, 90.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3925. However, MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.3925, 1.4005
Support level: 1.3880, 1.3840
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2065. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2065, 1.2135
Support level: 1.1990, 1.1915
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 109.20. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 108.30.
Resistance level: 109.20, 110.05
Support level: 108.30, 107.65
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7760. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7760, 0.7805
Support level: 0.7700, 0.7665
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded flat near the support level at 0.7195. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7225.
Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7265
Support level: 0.7195, 0.7150
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2255. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2390, 1.2510
Support level: 1.2255, 1.2105
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9110. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9185.
Resistance level: 0.9185, 0.9220
Support level: 0.9110, 0.9030
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 64.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 66.25.
Resistance level: 66.25, 67.60
Support level: 64.25, 62.20
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1787.05. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1803.40.
Resistance level: 1803.40, 1816.00
Support level: 1787.05, 1766.25