28 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar descends further, euro marches ahead.
US dollar extended its losses against a basket of major peers following a surge in euro after European Central Bank (ECB) hinted tapering its stimulus program while Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated the need to raise interest rates gradually. The dollar index was down 1.06% to 96.08, its lowest level since October 6th. The dollar extended its losses after Yellen offered relatively little input regarding their monetary policy outlook on Tuesday, while reiterating that it is appropriate to raise interest rates gradually to a level which will likely to remain low by historical standards. In the other region, euro was last quoted at $1.1340 against the greenback, its highest level in ten-months after rallying around 1% following hawkish remarks by ECB President Mario Draghi. Draghi stated that factors weighing on inflation in the EU zone were mainly temporary, adding that the bank would look through them. In addition, he also stated that ECB sees its growth pattern above its trend and is well distributed across euro area but reiterated that “considerable degree” of stimulus is still needed while unwinding it would require wise verdict.
As for commodities, crude oil price was down 0.66% to $43.95 after a report shows rising US fuel inventories that has underscored further concern that a three-year old supply glut is far from over. Otherwise, gold price appreciates by 0.21% to $1,249.06 after the dollar fell to a seven-months low while gains remain capped due to higher prospects for an interest rate hike in the future.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
15:30 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
21:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
21:30 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
21:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) | -1.3% | 0.8% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.451M | -2.585M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its gains following prior breakout from the top level of downward channel which signifies a change in trend direction to move further upwards. However, recent retracement from the resistance level of 1.2830 would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2830, 1.2890
Support level: 1.2780, 1.2735
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended its upward momentum following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines. Both lines which continues to expand upwards suggests further upward bias for EURUSD after breaking the resistance level of 1.1350.
Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1255
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained traded within a narrowing triangle while recently closed above the strong resistance level of 111.80. Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggests USDJPY to advance further up towards the resistance level of 112.70.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.90
Support level: 111.80, 110.95
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As both MA lines continue to narrow upwards, a closure above the resistance level of 44.40 would suggest crude oil price to extend its upward momentum.
Resistance level: 44.40, 45.85
Support level: 43.15, 42.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1243.00 while currently testing near the downtrend line. A successful breakout from this line would suggest further upward bias for gold price to move towards the target of resistance level at 1258.90.
Resistance level: 1250.10, 1258.90
Support level: 1243.00, 1235.95