4 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback gains some footing, eyes FOMC minutes.
Greenback held onto its gains on early Tuesday following upbeat US economic data which has boosted the US Treasury yield to seven-weeks high while market participants shifts their focus to Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision. The dollar index was held steady at 95.82 after appreciating more than 0.6% overnight. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), national factory activity came in at 57.8, beating expectation of only 55.2. “The recovery in dollar was driven by direct demand as opposed to the weakness of its peers,” said Shin Kadota, senior forex strategist. “Expectations towards US Federal Reserve hiking its interest rates had fallen too low. Thus, we are now observing the lowered expectations undergoing reversals.” Meanwhile, although Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to hike its benchmark rates, traders will be scavenging for hawkish adoption from the central bank following prior similar stance from European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada. Pair of AUD/USD was held unchanged at $0.7661.
Likewise, crude oil price depreciates by 0.49% to $46.84 after investors took their opportunity to cash in some profits following prior rally. Likewise, gold price rose 0.43% to $1,223.08 while investors look ahead for FOCM meeting minutes due tomorrow.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CAD Canada – Canada Day
All Day USD United States – Independence Day – Early Close at 13:00
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) | 56.0 | 55.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its losses following prior retracement from the recent high of 1.3030. Recent closure below the 20-moving average line (red) suggests further downward bias for GBPUSD to extend its losses towards the support level of 1.2925.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2925, 1.2860
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended its losses following prior breakthrough from the support level of 1.1400. The MACD histogram which illustrate substantial downward signal suggests EURUSD to advance further down after successfully closing below the support level of 1.1360.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1300
AUDUSD
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the resistance level of 0.7670. A closure below the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest AUDUSD to extend its losses towards the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.7670, 0.7690
Support level: 0.7640, 0.7620
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has recently broke out from the top level of upward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Referring to MACD histogram which shows substantial upward signal suggests USDJPY to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level of 113.70.
Resistance level: 113.70, 114.35
Support level: 113.00, 112.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level of 47.10. MACD indicator which started to drift outside of upward momentum suggests crude oil price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 47.10, 47.60
Support level: 46.50, 45.75
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price has recently break out from the bottom level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Both MA lines which expands downwards after the formation of death cross suggests gold price to advance further down towards the target of 1217.00.
Resistance level: 1232.00, 1246.00
Support level: 1217.00, 1200.00