6 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar-bull worn-out, ambivalent minutes to be blamed.
US dollar held steady against its peers on Thursday after Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes took the wind out from its recent bullish momentum, with market participants awaiting comments by central bankers and US data for next cues. The dollar index eased 0.02% and last quoted at 95.96. Federal Reserve members continued to view the recent slowdown in inflation as transitory and insisted that it would rise to their target over the long-term. The minutes also showed that the recent economic slowdown did not deter Federal Reserve’s stance of raising interest rates gradually with most members expect it to rise to 2% by 2019. However, prior dollar-bull was derailed as the Feds left the timing of balance-sheet normalization uncertain. In the other region, pound sterling ticked down 0.04% to $1.2929 against the greenback during Asian trading hours. Sterling received selling pressure due to rising concerns over UK’s economic performance following a series of underwhelming data.
Otherwise, crude oil price mends its losses by 0.75% to $45.47 after slumping more than 4% overnight due to rising crude exports from key producers in OPEC. As for gold, price of the yellow metal as up 0.50% to $1,226.46 while investors look ahead to a series of economic data from US later in the day.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Trade Balance (May) | 0.555B | 1.100B | 2.471B |
| 15:15 | CHF – CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.0% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) | 253K | 185K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 244K | 243K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (May) | -0.2% | 2.6% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 56.9 | 56.5 | – |
| 23:00 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | 0.118M | -2.283M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2900. In short-term, GBPUSD is expected to experience retracements and oscillate in between the range of 1.2900 and 1.2970. Otherwise, its long-term trend direction will be determined after breaking either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2850
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.1360. As EURUSD remained hovered in between both MA lines, it is suggested to experience brief retracement within the range 1.1300 and 1.1360. Otherwise, its long-term direction bias could only be determined after successfully breaking either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1400
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1250
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. Both MA lines which continues to narrow downwards suggests higher possibility for USDJPY to breaking from the bottom level and signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards.
Resistance level: 113.30, 113.65
Support level: 112.95, 112.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the 60-moving average line (green). However, MACD histogram provides substantial downside signal which suggests crude oil price to extend its losses after closing below 45.30.
Resistance level: 46.05, 47.30
Support level: 45.30, 44.65
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price extended gains following prior closure above the 60-moving average line (green). Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggests gold price to move further up and retest at the strong resistance level of 1228.00.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1235.00
Support level: 1222.30, 1217.00