20 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Major central bank speaks, financial market twitch.
Japanese yen was a tad stronger against its US counterpart on Thursday while the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement and interest rate decision should provide some market momentum. Pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.13% to 111.79 as of writing. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to leave its ultra-loose policy settings unchanged while the main theme for today’s event will be their economic projection report. Beforehand, BoJ introduced a massive bond purchasing program in hopes to lift up Japan’s sluggish inflationary pressure. However, recent economic data suggested a weaker response which signals its inability to attain BoJ projected outlook of 2% in the future. Otherwise, the dollar index was held unchanged at 94.52 as overnight’s housing sector data provides some upside support. The better-than-expected building permits and housing starts has helped to offset some pessimism sparked by possible weakness in the economy.
As for commodities, crude oil price settled near one-month high of $47.26 a barrel after Energy Information Administration reported a higher-than-expected draw in the US crude stockpiles by roughly 4.73 million barrels last week. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.08% to $1,240.17 as the dollar rebounds from its 11-month low following positive housing sector data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report
14:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Employment Change (Jun) | 42.0K | 15.0K | 14.0K |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -1.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 247K | 245K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | 27.6 | 24.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD continues to oscillate in the range of 1.3000 and 1.3050 while recently retraced from the 20-MA line (red). Stochastic Oscillator which provides retracement signal suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term towards 1.3000. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after breaking either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3085
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2965
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1530. Recent formation of death cross by both MA line suggest further downside bias for EURUSD to head towards the support level at 1.1500.
Resistance level: 1.1530, 1.1555
Support level: 1.1500, 1.1475
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level of 111.65. Such price action indicates a pickup in bullish momentum which suggests USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term and head towards the next target at 112.30.
Resistance level: 112.30, 113.15
Support level: 111.65, 111.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior closure above the strong resistance level of 47.00. Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggest crude oil price to move further up, towards the top level of downward channel.
Resistance level: 48.50, 50.00
Support level: 47.00, 45.25
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the previous high at 1244.35. Recent closure below the 60-MA line (green) while coupled with downward signal from MACD histogram suggests gold price to extend its losses towards the target at 1235.00.
Resistance level: 1240.00, 1244.35
Support level: 1235.00, 1229.20