23 September 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Fed signals for rate hike as early as next year.
US dollar extended its gains during early Asian trading session following hawkish signals from US Federal Reserve. As widely expected, Fed has maintained its current monetary policy setting during its September meeting earlier this morning. However, Fed officials signaled that they are ready to scale back stimulus that were introduced last year to mitigate coronavirus-led economic complications. According to Fed’s statement and economic projection, 9 out of 18 Fed officials supported to increase interest rates as soon as next year to mitigate rising inflationary pressure in the US. Fed expected inflation rate to peak at 4.2% for the year of 2021, exceeding their previously set target at 2%. From the press conference, Fed President Jerome Powell commented that their $120 billion monthly bond purchasing program may be tapered during November’s meeting if jobs market shows continuous improvement. Thus, Nonfarm Payrolls report that will be released in early October will be the focus for both Fed and investors to gauge the likelihood of such tapering measures. However, gains on the US dollar were limited after Fed dialed down economic projections for the current year. Fed committee expected Gross Domestic Product to grow at the rate of 5.9% for the year 2021, significantly lower than previous forecast of 7%. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.02% to 93.46.
As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.05% to $71.90 per barrel. Oil prices was up 2% on yesterday following significant drawdown in last week’s oil inventory after hurricane Ida and Nicholas struck Gulf Coast. On the other hand, gold price was down 0.03% to $1,767.48 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | – | – |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 62.6 | 61.5 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Composite PMI | 54.8 | – | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 60.3 | 59.0 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI | 55.0 | – | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | 0.10% | 0.10% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 332K | 320K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 4.70% | -1.70% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index extended its gains following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggests its price to extend its gains after closing above 93.50.
Resistance level: 93.50, 93.65
Support level: 93.30, 93.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout at 1.3655. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after closing below 1.3610.
Resistance level: 1.3655, 1.3690
Support level: 1.3610, 1.3550
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout at 1.1705. MACD which begins to form bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards 1.1675.
Resistance level: 1.1705, 1.1740
Support level: 1.1675, 1.1630
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signals suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the target of 110.15.
Resistance level: 110.15, 110.45
Support level: 109.75, 109.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 0.7260. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.7220.
Resistance level: 0.7260, 0.7300
Support level: 0.7220, 0.7190
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6985. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7025, 0.7075
Support level: 0.6985, 0.6945
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the direction of 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.2820, 1.2860
Support level: 1.2750, 1.2700
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking 0.9275.
Resistance level: 0.9275, 0.9325
Support level: 0.9235, 0.9200
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at 72.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 72.00, 72.65
Support level: 71.20, 70.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1756.30.
Resistance level: 1774.30, 1786.60
Support level: 1756.30, 1738.30