29 September 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar surged as hawkish expectation from Fed.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs surged to its highest in more than 10 months, buoyed by the rising treasury yields amid investors speculated that the Federal Reserve have higher possibility to reduce its bond buying program in November and tighten the monetary policy in order to combat high inflation risk in future. Recently, the tone from the U.S. Central Bank had turned hawkish during the monetary policy meeting, reinforcing the market view for a sooner-than-expected contractionary monetary policy. According to Reuters, St. Louis Fed James Bullard claimed that he expected the inflation rate rise to 2.8% through next year, well above the central bank’s 2% target. Besides, he also believed the Fed will begin tapering in November to maintain the inflation stability. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the US Dollar was limited over the backdrop of bearish economic data. According to Conference Board, U.S. CB Consumer Confidence came in at 109.3, missing the market forecast at 114.5. As of writing, the Dollar Index surged 0.03% to 93.75.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.05% to 74.80 per barrel as of writing. The oil market edged lower amid technical correction following its reached its recent high. Though, the overall prospect for the crude oil demand remained positive amid rapid Covid-19 vaccination program around the world. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.03% to $1734.85 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:45 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
23:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
23:45 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -1.80% | 1.30% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | -3.481M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 93.50. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 94.10, 94.75
Support level: 93.50, 92.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3515. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3605, 1.3665
Support level: 1.3515, 1.3410
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1675. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1740, 1.1775
Support level: 1.1675, 1.1620
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 111.55. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.55, 112.15
Support level: 110.10, 110.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7300. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7300, 0.7400
Support level: 0.7220, 0.7115
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6940. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6990, 0.7080
Support level: 0.6940, 0.6895
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2690. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2755
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2580
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9305. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9305, 0.9375
Support level: 0.9330, 0.9100
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 75.40. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 73.85.
Resistance level: 75.40, 76.90
Support level: 73.85, 72.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1746.00. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1746.00, 1761.05
Support level: 1718.30, 1687.10
Risk Statement:
Forex, Gold, Crude Oil, Commodities, CFD and all other margin trading investment products involve high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Your previous investment success in stock, futures or any other investment achieved does not mean that all your future investment will obtain the same results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives; risk associated and seek professional advice before deciding to trade or if you have any doubts.