15 November 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remained bullish amid rising US Treasury yield.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs hovered on its recent high amid surprisingly strong U.S. inflation had prompted investors to advance their bets for U.S. rate hike in short-term basis, spurring bullish momentum on the US Treasury yields. As for now, investors speculated that a first-rate increase by July and a high likelihood of another by November. CME data indicated that a 50% probability of a rate hike by then, compared to lower than 30% in the previous month. Contractionary monetary policy and a rate hike would diminish the money circulation and the inflation risk in the financial market, which dialed up the market optimism toward the appeal of US Dollar. Though, the overall statement from Federal Reserve as for now remained vague, hence investors should continue to scrutinize the latest updates from the Federal Reserve as well as crucial economic data to gauge the likelihood movement for the US Dollar. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.04% to 95.15.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.66% to $79.55 as of writing. The oil market slumped as market participants anticipated that US President Joe Biden will order the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to curb the high oil price and inflation risk in future. On the other hand, the gold price extends its gains at 0.05% to $1865.00 per troy ounces as of writing amid high inflation risk in future had continue to increase the appeal for the safe-haven gold.
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Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 95.15. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.15, 95.90
Support level: 94.50, 93.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3435. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3500
Support level: 1.3355, 1.3255
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1530. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1370.
Resistance level: 1.1530, 1.1680
Support level: 1.1370, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 113.30. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 114.55, 115.40
Support level: 113.30, 112.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7290. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7380.
Resistance level: 0.7380, 0.7435
Support level: 0.7290, 0.7220
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7055. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7110
Support level: 0.6995, 0.6940
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2590. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2525.
Resistance level: 1.2590, 1.2645
Support level: 1.2525, 1.2465
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9225. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9225, 0.9305
Support level: 0.9155, 0.9075
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 79.15. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 81.25, 83.30
Support level: 79.51, 77.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1870.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1870.40, 1887.00
Support level: 1852.00, 1830.65
Risk Statement:
Forex, Gold, Crude Oil, Commodities, CFD and all other margin trading investment products involve high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Your previous investment success in stock, futures or any other investment achieved does not mean that all your future investment will obtain the same results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives; risk associated and seek professional advice before deciding to trade or if you have any doubts.