15 December 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar surged amid hawkish expectation from Fed.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs surged following the United States released upbeat inflation data yesterday, insinuating hawkish expectation for Federal Reserve during the crucial FOMC meeting tomorrow. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for last month notched up significantly from the previous reading of 0.6% to 0.8%, exceeding the market forecast at 0.5%. Together with a tightening US labor market, rising price pressures will likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate the tapering of the early massive bond purchasing program and increase the odds for rate hikes sooner than previously expected. Earlier aggressive monetary aids from the governments across the globe had fuelled significant demand for goods, leaving supply chain overstretched. As for now, investors would focus on the decision from Federal Reserve during the FOMC meeting to receive further trading signal. As of writing, the Dollar Index appreciated by 0.25% to 96.55.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.07% to $70.45 per barrel as of writing. The oil market edged lower over the backdrop of bearish inventory data. According to American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at -0.815M, missing the market forecast at -2.600M. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.04% to $1772.40 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 (16th) USD FOMC Economic Projections
03:00 (16th) USD FOMC Statement
03:30 (16th) USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 4.20% | 4.70% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 1.70% | 1.00% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 1.70% | 0.80% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.60% | – | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -0.240M | – | – |
| 03:00 (16th) |
USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 96.50. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 96.50, 96.90
Support level: 95.65, 94.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3195. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3355, 1.3505
Support level: 1.3195, 1.3050
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1370. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1175.
Resistance level: 1.1370, 1.1530
Support level: 1.1175, 1.1010
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 112.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 114.40.
Resistance level: 114.40, 115.40
Support level: 112.80, 112.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7175. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6995.
Resistance level: 0.7175, 0.7280
Support level: 0.6995, 0.6825
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6735. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6635, 0.6640
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2870. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2870, 1.3020
Support level: 1.2720, 1.2595
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9200. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9260.
Resistance level: 0.9260, 0.9315
Support level: 0.9200, 0.9155
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 72.65. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 68.65.
Resistance level: 72.65, 75.10
Support level: 68.65, 65.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1762.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1790.00, 1811.50
Support level: 1762.20, 1729.60