7 September 2017 Daily Analysis
CAD gone crazy, EUR anticipates ECB!
US dollar tumbled sharply against the Canadian counterpart on yesterday following a surprise move from the Bank of Canada (BoC) by raising their benchmark rates. As of writing, pair of USD/CAD ticks up 0.08% to $1.2236, not far from two years trough of $1.2139. In their latest monetary policy meeting, BoC decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% after a hike in July, citing upbeat economic growth as the main factor for their verdict. “The move by BoC has taken off the chances for a rate hike in October. Main market focus will shift towards December’s meeting while optimistic economic conditions will be needed to justify such action,” postulate analyst from Wells Fargo. In the other region, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.05% to $1.1923 while current upside bias remained limited as market participants shift their focus towards the highly anticipated European Central Bank policy decision later in the day. The single common currency remained well bid amid increasing speculation that ECB may announce plans to taper their QE programs as EU zone economic performance regains its momentum.
Otherwise, crude oil price eased by 0.06% to $49.13 with limited downside as American Petroleum Institute reported a lesser-than-expected crude oil build of 2.79 million barrels. Similarly, gold price recorded a loss of 0.05% to $1,333.28 following President Donald Trump’s plan to pass an extension of US debt limit and raise the debt ceiling.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
00:15 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) | -1.1% | 0.6% | – |
| 15:30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Aug) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 236K | 241K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Aug) | 60.0 | 61.3 | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -5.392M | 4.022M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following a retracement from the resistance level of 1.3075. MACD histogram which shows diminishing upward momentum suggests GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Next target at 1.3020.
Resistance level: 1.3075, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3020, 1.2960
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded in an uptrend following prior rebound near the support level of 1.1915. MACD indicator which shows substantial upward signal suggests further upside bias for EURUSD to advance towards the next target at 1.1970.
Resistance level: 1.1970, 1.2070
Support level: 1.1915, 1.1865
USDCAD
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.2420. MACD histogram which illustrate negative divergence suggests USDCAD to extend its losses towards the next target at 1.2175.
Resistance level: 1.2420, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2175, 1.1940
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the 20-MA line (red). Both lines which has formed a death cross formation suggests further downside bias to extend its losses after closing below the support level of 109.00.
Resistance level: 109.70, 110.65
Support level: 109.00, 108.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price were traded lower following a retrace from the resistance level at 49.35. MACD histogram which shows substantial downward signal suggests its price to extend further down after successfully closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 49.35, 49.95
Support level: 48.55, 48.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was offered lower following a retracement from the resistance level of 1340.00. Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggests further downside bias for gold price to advance towards the support level of 1330.00.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1348.00
Support level: 1330.00, 1321.00