13 October 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback retraces amid release of economics data.
Dollar index was traded lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies, quoted down 0.05% to 92.74 while investors await tonight’s release of Consumer Price Index for further signal on next interest rate hike. Overnight, greenback extended some gains after U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease in initial jobless claims by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 258,000 last week, versus forecasts of only 7,000 decline. In addition, producer price index (PPI) in September shown an increase of 0.4% in which has ease some investors’ concern over the slowdown in inflation amid dovish FOMC meeting minutes. On the other hand, pound sterling rose by 0.12% to $1.3278 against the US dollar following overnight’s plunge due to Brexit uncertainties. According to EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, recent negotiation has reached an impasses while ruling out discussion on future trade with the UK for the time being. Recent stumbled progress has spurred higher uncertainty over UK’s economy in the future which may lose its access to the single economy bloc.
In the commodity market, crude oil price increased by 0.51% to $50.86 a barrel as it is supported by China trade data which mirrored rising demand views as the market looks ahead to a U.S. oil rig count data. Likewise, gold price extended gains by 0.26% to $1296.62 a troy ounce following a suspected nuclear test in North Korea after geology agency in the South reported a 2.7 magnitude earthquake this morning.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
23:30 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
01:00 USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:00 | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Sep) | 41.99B | 39.50B | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | -0.2% | 1.7% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) | 95.1 | 95.0 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 748 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior its breakout above resistance level at 1.3240 and resistance by 200-MA line. The successful breakout suggests GBPUSD to continue its momentum to trade higher toward the next resistance level at 1.3330.
Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3445
Support level: 1.3240, 1.3175
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1.1820. Upward slope of MACD histogram and bullish engulfing candlestick pattern suggest the pair to further its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1870.
Resistance level: 1.1870, 1.1910
Support level: 1.1820, 1.1775
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded within descending triangle. It is suggested to wait for breakout to occur following absence of obvious signal from both price action and MACD indicator.
Resistance level: 112.60, 113.00
Support level: 112.10, 111.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior its failure to break below support level at 50.20. Formation of pin bar candlestick and golden-cross as formed by MACD signal line suggest the pair to trade higher if closure above resistance level at 50.80 is successful.
Resistance level: 50.80, 51.35
Support level: 50.20, 49.25
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded in higher prior its rebound from the bullish trend line and support level at 1289.70. Formation of bullish pinbar candlestick and golden-cross of MACD signal line suggest gold price to trade higher toward the resistance level at 1297.60.
Resistance level: 1297.60, 1302.35
Support level: 1289.70, 1283.40