02 November 2017 Daily Analysis
Delayed tax bill and Powell pressured on the Greenback.
Dollar index slipped 0.15% from 3.5-month high against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies to 94.68, sagging ahead of delayed U.S. tax bill announcement and market expectation toward naming of Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair by President Trump. Following an embarrassing one-day postponement of the bill’s unveiling on Wednesday, U.S. lawmakers planned for a measure of $6 trillion tax cuts over 10 years but they did not draw out how to offset them in the future. In addition, nomination of current Fed Governor Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair is seen as less hawkish compared to other candidates which led to a slump in the Greenback. Overnight, Greenback reached to its highest level since July 11 at 114.45 following gains of 0.5% after it was being catalyzed by upbeat U.S. data and enhanced prospects for a rate hike by the Fed in December. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected but further increased expectations for a year-end rate hike by highlighting robust labor market and economic growth in the U.S. On the other hand, AUD/USD rose 0.46% to 0.7712 following better-than-expected trade balance figure and building approvals data. Australia’s trade balance widened to AUD 1,745 million in September versus the expected AUD 1,200 million, while building approvals for September rose 1.5% versus the expected 1.0% increase.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remained stable at $54.25 per barrel after falling by 5 cents due to falling U.S commercial crude oil inventories despite rising output. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.47% to $1280.14 following Greenback’s retracement prior to delayed tax bill and announcement of the next Fed Chair.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
20:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
20:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
20:30 USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks
00:20 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
06:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | -1.0% | 1.5% |
| 08:30 | AUD – Trade Balance | 0.873B | 1.200B | 1.745B |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 60.5 | 60.5 | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Oct) | -23K | -11K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Oct) | 48.1 | 48.0 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Oct) | 0.25% | 0.50% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 233K | 235K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.2% | 0.4% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1.3250. Upward slope of MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3250, 1.3215
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was trade higher prior rebound from support level at 1.1605. Formation of hidden positive divergence by MACD signal line suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1705.
Resistance level: 1.1705, 1.1860
Support level: 1.1605, 1.1475
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior its failure to break above resistance level at 114.15. Formation of bearish engulfing candlestick and downward slope of MACD signal line suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower toward the support by 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 114.15, 114.75
Support level: 113.45, 113.05
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 53.95. Upward slope of MACD histogram suggest the commodity price to extend higher toward the resistance level at 54.85 if breakout above resistance level at 54.35 is successful.
Resistance level: 54.35, 54.85
Support level: 53.95, 53.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior breaking above resistance level at 1272.80 and resistance by 200-MA line. Golden-cross as formed by MACD signal line suggests gold price to extend higher if breakout above resistance level at 1280.00 is successful.
Resistance level: 1280.00, 1291.00
Support level: 1272.80, 1269.00