30 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar remained steady ahead of Easter holidays.
Dollar index was traded flat against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies around key level 89.70 ahead of the celebration of Good Friday. Overnight, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose coherently with economists’ forecast for an increase of 1.6%, suggesting that inflation continues to trail towards 2% inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. In addition, initial jobless claims reduced by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 last week, much better than the expected reading to achieve a drop to 230,000. Greenback was also able to hold on its bullish bias after consumer spending met the forecast reading for a rise of 0.2% last month. On the contrary, USD/CAD was down 0.21% to $1.2890 despite Canadian GDP data that shown a surprise actual reading at -0.1% versus the expected reading of 0.1% following recovery of oil prices from its three-day slump.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.87% to $64.89 per barrel after US rig count snaps its 2-week gains by six to 798, sparkling market sentiment towards possible tightening in domestic output. Otherwise, gold price eased a little by 0.19% but still traded at its 1-week lows around $1325.08 a troy ounce following an ease of trade tension between U.S. and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All day All Markets Good Friday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
01:00 (Sat) USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (YoY) | 1.9% | – | – |
| 07:30 | JPY – Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| 07:50 | JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | -6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.4060. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 1.3980.
Resistance level: 1.4060, 1.4100
Support level: 1.3980, 1.3870
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following rebound from support level at 1.2290. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher towards its previous low.
Resistance level: 1.2330, 1.2350
Support level: 1.2290, 1.2260
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower prior breaking support level at 106.80. Death-cross as portrayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the next support level at 106.00 if the pair successfully closes its candlestick below the 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 106.80, 107.50
Support level: 106.00, 105.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 64.70. Golden-cross as shown by MACD signal line would suggest the commodity price to continue its gains towards the next resistance level at 65.40.
Resistance level: 65.40, 66.40
Support level: 64.70, 63.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1321.10. Positive divergence as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its gains if breakout at the resistance level at 1326.90 is successful.
Resistance level: 1326.90, 1334.90
Support level: 1321.10, 1316.10