06 April 2018 Daily Analysis
NFP and Powell’s speech on-eyed; Dollar’s fate to be unveiled.
Dollar index was traded lower against a basket of major currencies by 0.11% to 89.96 following the release of softer economic data and escalation of US-China trade spat. Overnight, initial jobless claims has been reported to increase by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 last week as compared to economists’ forecast for a rise to 225,000. In addition, U.S. trade deficit added further bearish pressure on the Greenback after the gap between imports and exports in the region has been widened from $56.70 billion to $57.60 billion. During Asian trading session today, Greenback extended its bearish momentum attributed to threatening remark by President Trump to consider imposing $100 billion in additional tariffs on China as a revenge towards the party’s unfair retaliation against U.S. trade actions earlier. All in all, dollar-bull is expected to remain limited as market participants await further cues from the release of Non-farm Payroll reports as well as speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell due tonight. On the contrary, GBP/USD pared its losses by 0.10% to $1.4017. The pair received downside pressure following the release of disappointing services PMI in UK, last stood at 51.7 versus the expected reading of 53.9. However, market sentiment towards Pound Sterling remained optimistic following their anticipation towards Bank of England (BoE) to increase its rate by 25bp in the month of May.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.66% to $63.09 per barrel after Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed al-Sada noted that OPEC and non-OPEC should keep momentum in cooperating with regards to oil market management, thus it was still too early to exit the oil cut as recovery in oil prices has not met with an increase in investments. Otherwise, gold price pared its losses by 0.51% to $1332.19 a troy ounce following a weakened dollar amid the release of NFP reports.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:15 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
01:30 (Sat) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (YoY) (Feb) | 2.0% | 0.3% | -0.9% |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) | 313K | 190K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 4.1% | 4.0% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Mar) | 15.4K | 20.3K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 5.8% | 5.8% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Mar) | 59.6 | 60.2 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 798 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.3980. Golden-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.4015.
Resistance level: 1.4015, 1.4040
Support level: 1.3980, 1.3945
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior rebound from descending trend line. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the 23.6 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2250, 1.2290
Support level: 1.2210, 1.2160
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 107.50. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 107.00.
Resistance level: 107.50, 107.90
Support level: 107.00, 106.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following its failure to break resistance level at 63.80. The commodity price is currently testing the support level at 63.00. MACD histogram that shows increasing bearish momentum would suggest crude oil price to extend its losses if breakout at the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 63.80, 64.20
Support level: 63.00, 62.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher after breaking resistance by 200-MA line at 1327.90. Diminishing bearish momentum as displayed by MACD histogram would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its gains if breakout at the ascending trend line is successful.
Resistance level: 1334.90, 1337.70
Support level: 1327.90, 1321.10