16 March 2023 Morning Session Analysis
US dollar surged as Credit Suisse renewed European bank worries.
The dollar index, which traded against a basket of six major currencies, revived from the tremendous sell-off which started last Wednesday as Credit Suisse led the Europe bank rout in renewed SVB fallout. In the early European trading session, the banking sector fell sharply in overall, led by Credit Suisse. A day ago, Credit Suisse acknowledged “material weakness” in its financial reporting, highlighting that the group failed to identify potential risks to financial statements. Prior to the revelations, the bank had delayed the publication of the annual report. As a matter of fact, the material weakness of the financial report did not really trigger a large sell-off in the market. However, the European stock market tumbled after the largest investor – Saudi National Bank (SNB) revealed today it would not buy more shares in the Swiss bank on regulatory grounds. As of now, the SNB holds a bank stake of 9.88% in Credit Suisse. A more than 10% shareholding by the SNB would cause new rules to kick in, whether it be by the Saudi regulator or the European regulator, or the Swiss regulator. With the prospect of no more extra cash would be pumped in by the largest backer, the market fears over the banking sector in the European market heightened, urging investors to run away from the euro financial market. As of writing, the dollar index rose 1.11% to 104.75.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices were down by -4.55% to $68.30 per barrel as the renewed banking turmoil in Europe weighed on the oil demand’s prospect further. Besides, gold prices jumped by 0.10% to $1920.25 per troy ounce following the renewed contagion fears over the banking sector around the world.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
21:45 EUR ECB Press Conference
23:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Feb) | 1.339M | 1.340M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 211K | 205K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) | -24.3 | -15.6 | – |
| 21:15 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Mar) | 2.50% | 3.00% | – |
| 21:15 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 3.25% | – | – |
| 21:15 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar) | 3.00% | 3.50% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 103.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.
Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65
Support level: 103.15, 101.25
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2105. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2200, 1.2345
Support level: 1.2105, 1.1940
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0575. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0665, 1.0770
Support level: 1.0575, 1.0445
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 133.05. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 135.20, 136.30
Support level: 133.05, 130.70
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6675. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6785
Support level: 0.6565, 0.6425
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6150. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6455
Support level: 0.6150, 0.6040
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3730. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3730, 1.3830
Support level: 1.3635, 1.3565
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9325. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9325, 0.9475
Support level: 0.9225, 0.9070
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 66.10. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 71.65, 76.10
Support level: 66.10, 61.45
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1900.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1944.60.
Resistance level: 1944.60, 1985.90
Support level: 1900.00, 1884.00