2 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remains resilient, all eyes on RBA.
US dollar recuperates its losses from yesterday while investors anticipates the release of interest rate decision from Reserve Bank of Australia scheduled this afternoon. The dollar index notched up 0.01%, last quoted around 94.90 during Asian session. Yesterday, US dollar received some downward pressure after Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing PMI for the month of September tumbled slightly to 59.8 versus forecast of 60.1. However, losses were limited after employment facet of the data – ISM Manufacturing Employment came in with a higher reading of 58.8 versus forecast of 58.1. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD extended gains by 0.01% to 1.3043 this morning. Overnight, pound sterling spiked upwards after news reported that UK plans to compromise on Irish border issue in order to move forward with a Brexit plan. However, the compromise will be used as a last resort if a deal is not reached and it would be conditional for UK to have full access to EU custom union.
Looking into commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.63% to $75.53 per barrel, its highest level since late 2014. Bulls market continues to bet on the commodity following heightened worries that Iranian sanction may lead to a significant decrease of oil supply in the global market with a reduction of up to 1.5 million barrels per day. On the other hand, gold price was traded flat around $1,189.38 a troy ounce while resilient greenback prevents any significant recovery of the commodity price.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
22:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
00:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Sep) | 52.9 | 52.8 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.903M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement near 95.00. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending wedge following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the level 1.3055.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2985, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following previous rebound before the support level near 1.1550. MACD which shows diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1495
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the psychological level at 114.00. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards 113.70.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35
Support level: 113.70, 113.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the upper level. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7260
Support level: 0.7230, 0.7200
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which begins to form golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance near 0.6615.
Resistance level: 0.6615, 0.6640
Support level: 0.6590, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat while currently testing near the threshold of 1.2800. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the strong support of 1.2800.
Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2720
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded thinly while currently testing near the resistance of 0.9850. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9850, 0.9885
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9760
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 73.40. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 75.60.
Resistance level: 75.60, 76.15
Support level: 74.60, 73.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1184.00. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1184.00, 1177.00