3 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Powell reiterates to act upon inflation.
Greenback rebounds from its session low on Wednesday following receding political conditions in the EU while investors continue to digest a rather bullish speech delivered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier today. The dollar index was up 0.19%, last seen at 95.08 while pair of EUR/USD depreciates by 0.05% to 1.1545. With regards to Powell speech, he feels that the economy is approaching a “historical era” whereby the jobs market continues to inch towards ultra-low unemployment conditions. While Powell expects the inflation target to hover at 2%, he reiterates that the Feds will “act with authority” in the event of an inflation spike in the future. In the euro’s front, the single common currency received tremendous bearish pressure following Italy’s dispute with European Union over its proposed budget. EU officials warned the Italian government over its plans following a deficit target of 2.4% of their GDP may tip the bloc back into financial crisis.
As for commodities, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.16% to $75.42 per barrel during Asian session. On yesterday, the commodity price experienced slight retracement after investors book their profit upon hitting 4 years high. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.12% to $1,204.51 a troy ounce over the backdrop of heightened political crisis in the EU.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
04:00 (4th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:00 | EUR – Services PMI (Sep) | 54.7 | 54.7 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Sep) | 54.3 | 54.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) | 163K | 187K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 56.7 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 58.5 | 58.1 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.852M | 1.985M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: The dollar was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level at 95.15. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 94.50.
Resistance level: 95.30, 95.60
Support level 94.50, 93.90
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was recently traded higher following prior rebound from the psychological level 1.2980. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2940, 1.2820
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1570. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1615.
Resistance level: 1.1615, 1.1680
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1530
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was recently traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 113.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 113.05.
Resistance level: 114.05, 114.70
Support level: 113.55, 113.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7215. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7160.
Resistance level: 0.7215, 0.7295
Support level: 0.7160, 0.7135
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6595. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6595, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 1.2820. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2820, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2730, 1.2670
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel at the middle level. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout from the channel or below the support level 0.9815.
Resistance level: 0.9875, 0.9900
Support level: 0.9815, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level 75.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 74.85.
Resistance level: 77.05, 78.25
Support level 74.85, 72.80
GOLD, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1208.45. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1208.45, 1212.65
Support level: 1203.30, 1196.00