3 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar falls amid Italy’s new budget plan.
The dollar index retraced from its psychological level at 95.15 after Italy’s Government announced a revised budget plan. Yesterday’s plan of 2.4% Deficit-to-GDP will be reduced to 2% by 2021, while the country’s debt-to-GDP estimated at 131% is under planned by the government to lower it down to 127% by 2021. The sentiment boosted the euro while turning bad for the dollar, which fell by 0.16% to 94.90 during early European trading session. In other news, the pair EUR/USD was seen regaining its bullish momentum right after Italy announced its new budget plan. The pair surge as much as 30 pips and is currently written at 1.1584. Investors confidence was boosted by the sentiment and decided to move their portfolio to pro-euro.
As for commodities, crude oil price continues to recover by 0.33% to $75.30 per barrel during Asian session due to the worsening sentiment on Iran sanctions its deadline approaches. On the other hand, gold price retraced some of its gains by 0.04% to $1,202.30 a troy ounce as a minor technical correction.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
04:00 (4th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Sep) | 54.3 | 54.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) | 163K | 187K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 56.7 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 58.5 | 58.1 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.852M | 1.985M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: The dollar was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level at 95.15. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 94.50.
Resistance level: 95.30, 95.60
Support level 94.50, 93.90
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was recently traded higher while currently testing the bearish trend line. MACD which illustrate a bullish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the trend line or the resistance level 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2940, 1.2820
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1570. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1615.
Resistance level: 1.1615, 1.1680
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1530
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was recently traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 113.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 113.05.
Resistance level: 114.05, 114.70
Support level: 113.55, 113.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7215. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7160.
Resistance level: 0.7215, 0.7295
Support level: 0.7160, 0.7135
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6595. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6595, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2785. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.2840.
Resistance level: 1.2840, 1.2905
Support level: 1.2965, 1.3065
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel at the middle level. MACD which display starting bullish momentum and the formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout from the channel or above the resistance level 0.9875.
Resistance level: 0.9875, 0.9900
Support level: 0.9815, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level 75.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 74.85.
Resistance level: 77.05, 78.25
Support level 74.85, 72.80
GOLD, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1208.45. MACD which illustrate a persistent bullish momentum suggest the retracement to be a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 1208.45, 1212.65
Support level: 1203.30, 1196.00