5 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling jumps over Brexit, Ireland headlines.
US dollar retraced from its previous high on yesterday following a larger buyback on the pound sterling over the backdrop of latest Brexit headlines. The dollar index was quoted down by 0.02% to 95.37 while pairing of GBP/USD ticked up 0.01% to 1.3022. Sterling received bullish traction overnight as investors bet Britain and the European Union are moving closer to an agreed position on a deal for Brexit before Brexit cut-off date early next year. In addition, UK Prime Minister Theresa May was reportedly being backed by Ireland over her plan for an all-UK customs union with the European Union if no other solution to the Irish border issue was found. The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland became the main issue over how trade and free movement of goods will work between the north and south after Brexit. However, losses on the greenback remains limited following better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders reading released on yesterday.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered some losses this morning by 0.15% to $75.00 per barrel. The commodity slumped more than 3% on yesterday after Saudi Arabia and Russia quietly agreed to increase their output in order to overcome shortage due to Iranian sanction. Otherwise, gold price slumped 0.12% to $1,198.37 a troy ounce while investors places their attention upon tonight’s highly anticipated release of Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) | -0.9% | 0.7% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) | 201K | 185K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 3.9% | 3.8% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Sep) | -51.6K | 25.0K | – |
| 01:00 (6th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 863 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 95.50. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to experience technical correction and extend its retracement in short-term.
Resistance level: 95.50, 96.00
Support level: 95.00, 94.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3055.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2985, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the low level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1445
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY recovers its losses after prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 114.30, 114.55
Support level: 114.00, 113.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded in a downtrend following prior breakout from the support level of 0.7200. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.7025.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7025, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 0.6540. Overall, MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal may suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6450.
Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6450, 0.6370
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the threshold of 1.2800. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains following a successful rebound from the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2860
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the top level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and recent price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout from either side before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 74.60. MACD which shows diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 75.60.
Resistance level: 75.60, 76.15
Support level: 74.60, 73.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 1202.00. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1202.00, 1210.60
Support level: 1192.00, 1184.00