12 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar depreciates further after CPI misses target.
Greenback retreats further against other major peers on yesterday after recent inflation data undershot economist’s expectation for last month. According to US Labor Department, Consumer Price Index rose to 2.3% for the year till September, missing economist forecast for a reading of 2.4%. However, many economists postulate that while recent inflation begins to show some signs of depreciation, it is still unlikely to deter US Federal Reserve’s plan to gradually increase their interest rates for the long-run. Likewise, greenback was also kept at its backfoot following a rebound in Euro following diminished political risk in Italy. Per report, Italian Senate has approved a motion to push back the balanced budget from 2020 to beyond 2021 on yesterday after the central government introduced a higher budget deficit target of 2.4% which received backslash from the European Union. As of writing, dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 94.67 while pairing of EUR/USD depreciates slightly by 0.03% to 1.1590.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.13% to $71.00 per barrel during early Asian trading session. The commodity received large selloff after EIA reported that crude inventories rose higher than expected with 5.987 million barrels versus forecast of only 2.620 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price slumped by 0.28% to $1,220.91 a troy ounce this morning. However, the commodity jumped more than 3% on yesterday following tumbling stock around the globe which raises the demand for safe-haven assets due to risk aversion.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| Tentative | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Sep) | 27.89B | 19.40B | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) | -0.8% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | -0.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) | 100.1 | 100.4 | – |
| 01:00 (13th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 861 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the resistance of 94.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses following a retrace from the threshold of 94.65.
Resistance level: 94.65, 95.00
Support level: 94.00, 93.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1.3200. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3200, 1.3080
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1.1570. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level at 1.1605.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1550
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 112.15, 112.70
Support level: 111.60, 110.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 0.7130. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking the threshold of 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful closure above the resistance level near 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6490, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3050. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 70.65. MACD which illustrate bullish divergence suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 72.00, 73.70
Support level: 70.65, 69.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level near 1228.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-erm as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60