24 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar flattens, risk-off dominates.
US dollar retraced from its prior two-months high on yesterday as risk aversion across the market boosted the demand for safe-haven assets such as Japanese Yen and gold. In addition, the US dollar received additional bearish pressure following a rebound in pound sterling. The currency received some buybacks amid reports that the EU might offer UK Prime Minister Theresa May a UK-wide customs union in order to reach a Brexit deal. However, gains on the sterling were limited after several analysts downplayed the prospect to reach a deal anytime soon even though EU might offer UK a workaround on the Irish border issue. In the other region, Canadian dollar extended its gains since yesterday while investors eyes tonight’s interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada. While the central bank is widely expected to raise their interest rates, investors will be focusing on the statement and press conference from the bank to gauge their confidence towards Canadian economic progression. As of writing, the dollar index was flat around 95.63, pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.01% to 1.2984 while pair of USD/CAD tumbles by 0.03% to 1.3082.
As for commodities, crude oil price was down 1.58% to $66.28 per barrel this morning. Sentiment towards the commodity turned sour after Saudi Arabia, world’s top oil exporter offered to maximize their output at a faster rate in order to curb the lack of supply as sanctions against Iran begins in two weeks. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.08% to $1,231.23 a troy ounce following risk-off sentiment in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
23:15 CAD BoC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 53.7 | 53.5 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Gross Mortgage Approvals | 39.4K | 39.0K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Sep) | 629K | 630K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.50% | 1.75% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 6.490M | 3.694M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 95.75.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2980.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2980, 1.2955
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1485, 1.1540
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1385
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. Although MACD illustrate bullish signal, a close above 112.45 is required to attain further upside bias confirmation.
Resistance level: 112.45, 112.70
Support level: 112.15, 111.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at 0.7090. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the target of 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7045, 0.7000
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6610
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3080. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the next target near 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3115
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Recent formation of golden cross from MACD suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 66.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 67.35, 68.55
Support level: 66.10, 64.90
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1230.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1238.35, 1248.00
Support level: 1230.00, 1221.00